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July 7, 2012
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No real history with Villian but felt donkish small lead on rvr repped just a queen. Was this a reckless move effectively for tourney life? Felt I had a good read on situation and I had tight image on table up to this
Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t125/t250 Blinds + t25 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
PkrDime (UTG+2): BB = 134.8, t33707
Loic Napaul (MP1): BB = 38.1, t9525
Hero (MP2): BB = 40.4, t10107
RedPantRed (CO): BB = 61.4, t15362
TheDaggoth (BTN): BB = 140.3, t35074
Yes Rase (SB): BB = 40.5, t10113
DannyN13 (BB): BB = 26.7, t6676
flopped6810 (UTG): BB = 29.4, t7346
Vershitskiy (UTG+1): BB = 40.2, t10051
Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is MP2 with 7
9
4 folds, Hero raises to t575, 2 folds, Yes Rase calls t450, 1 fold
Flop: (t1625) 6
4
Q (2 players)
Yes Rase checks, Hero bets t845, Yes Rase calls t845
Turn: (t3315) A (2 players)
Yes Rase checks, Hero bets t1425, Yes Rase calls t1425
River: (t6165) K (2 players)
Yes Rase bets t1500, Hero raises to t7237 all in, Yes Rase folds
May 30, 2012
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if you had a tight image he sint floating 2 streets light, i dont love it, dont hate it. his stats would be helpful. I would be donking AK AQ J10 on this runnout if i were him.
May 30, 2012
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Me and john talked about this on skype so ill post cliffs.
I thought it was a gross spot to bluff because his donking range is fairly narrow without reads otherwise, its a pretty nonsensical board to c/c/ c/c b/f on. he floated you two streets and lead into you small usually indicates a strong hand that is afraid you will checkback river. I think the river donking range without reads is weighted towards 44 66 A4 A6 AK AQ KQ. its a pretty non sensical spot for him to b/f with KJ or QJ since nothing worse just calls. Also I didnt discount sets and two pair hands that would 3bet or raise flop or turn some % because this line indicates that they are on the passive side anyway. The fact you have a tight image makes it even less likely that he randomly floats turns to bluff river and if flush draws play this passively they dont just decide to bluff river. hands like J10cc and J10dd both also make sense.
in summary i dont think many thin value hands are bet/folding this river v a tight image
i dont think many missed fds or small pairs decide to float and bluff this river so weakly
i think you get snapped off here by a strong hand a massive amount of the time.
if you have any reads or anything it could change things but as played i just give up on turn, we fold out basically nothing on this barrel card and firing turn to give up river is way harder to not spew off doing.
turn barrel we like only fold out 77-1010, and even then 1010 prob calls turn.
as Qx isnt folding Ax isnt folding xxcc xxdd both call or raise, 44 66 never fold all boradways that havent paired now have a gutshot (JK J10)
so im def just checking back giving up this turn with no equity what so ever and very little fold equity.
July 20, 2012
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Tom pretty much covered our discussion there and I agree 100% with what he said though there is one thing I would add about the river.
When you do get that far and he leads out it can mean 2 things – he is inducing or he is blocking (it's almost never a bluff). For me this is the crux of whether your jam is spew or a good spot to bluff.
There are a few hands that he could induce with here, though I would also expect him to raise before river some of the time with those hands – 44, 66, A4, A6, AK, AQ, KQ, 10Jdd. Also, I think a lot of Ax hands could potentially blocker there but would probably call off the jam anyway so they are in the same category.
The only likely range that he could blocker to then fold is something like Qx and Kxdd.
In other words there are a lot more hands he could be inducing with here than blockering and I think you get called way more often than he folds. The only counter to this is if you have a specific read on the player about blocking river bets.
May 30, 2012
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I also feel that the c/c c/c donk lead just screams i have a value hand and am afraid you will checkback so ill bet super small for value if he is super fishy. which i kind of think he probably is given he flatted 2 streets on a super wet board from a tight opener.
May 30, 2012
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I also dont understand why villain would blocker river with Kx Qx tbh john, nothing worse calls and all you do is induce jams/or fold out bluffs and missed draws. surely c/c or c/f are infinitely better lines with Qx Kx on that river
July 20, 2012
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Yeah Tom, I'm not saying that I like a blocker bet there and don't think a competent player would make one there, there are definitely better lines with those hands. Having said that they are still a possibility because we can't assume he is competent.
May 30, 2012
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yea i agree, i just think hands like 109dd J9dd are more likely to b/f that Qx Kx which are more likely to c/c or c/f. but we are raising hoping he has like 8 combos compared to the approx 60-70 we lose to
October 6, 2010
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to be honest, that bet on the river from villain looks completely full of it. if villain had any sort of value hand, why wouldnt he check it? i mean the board gets worse and worse for someone taking a check-call line, so it is perfect for hero to barrel off.
it seems like some sort of really weak hand to me, probably a Q or TT or something to be honest
October 6, 2010
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its the river sizing that does it for me – unless villain is a complete sicko and is betting small to induce, i think this is full of it most of hte time
October 6, 2010
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also, i think you should post this without results next time
May 30, 2012
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or a fish that has a set and is afraid we will fold. im sure its just retarded value more than its a bluff from someone taking an incredibly passive line.
July 7, 2012
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Good discussion guys, thought there would be some strong points and a split of opinions as I had mix feelings about it after the hand for many of the reasons stated – obviously very relieved to take it down.
Villains stats at the time where 16/10 over 58 hands, however he had played 30% from the SB. His previous line when he hit strong from SB was to c/c, donk lead 2/3, donk lead 2/3.
Having replayed the hand again I'm sticking with my gutfeel that it was a weak lead on rvr and looks more and more like Qx blocker or Kx of diamonds blocker.
May 30, 2012
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haha sticking with your gutfeel is easy when he folds, but im more concerned that he may turn up with value often enough to make it a bad jam. But by all means go with reads in game, heaps of gameflow and dynamics cant be replicated and you didnt really give any kinds of reads in OP and v alot of bad opponents that river jam will get through a ton!
July 20, 2012
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bennymacca said:
also, i think you should post this without results next time
I definitely agree with this, it's not to make the hand more exciting for us, it's to eliminate bias from responses. It can be really hard to think objectively about what his river bet means when we already know he folds to the jam. I have a feeling that without that information your jam would look much more spewy to me.
July 5, 2012
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Think this is a super sick line.
Only issue is villian has put in almost half of
His stack after donk leads the river.
That being said he leaves himself 23bbs and plenty
Of room to fold. He almost never has sets in
His range because he would raise the flop and/or turn
With such draw heavy boards.
Think you obv have to cbet flop
Have to rep the ace on the turn
And have to rip when he donks.
He either has a queen or had the ace
High flush draw on the flop so had to see a river IMO
Think even if he checks the river, you should shove. You
Have a little more than a pot size river shove left
In your stack.
what hands does this guy HAVE to have to call you for his
Tournament life? I think the range is super narrow.
Very well played.
Side note: one of sickest players I know, DannyN13 might
Have missed a good shove spot preflop when a competent
Reg like turbulence opens and gets a flat and he has tons of FE.
free money in the middle preflop imo.
June 5, 2012
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Seems pretty well covered, but one thing I didn’t see anyone mention: it’s a Sunday major. This guy could be a satty winner, and therefore playing a low-stakes style AND be playing scared. If this is the case, I like the jam a lot more.
I’ve had guys donk/blocker river for half their stack, and then I minraise and they fold. People do dumb stuff, ESPECIALLY when playing in big events over their head, BI-wise.
May 30, 2012
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especially given his stats i hate the turn barrel. i dont like triple barreling into tight ranges, especially since all his set hunts etc fold flop.
July 17, 2012
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I like your line here. Pretty sick and it's pretty effective unless he rivered the nuts. That king on the river would have made me throw up, but I like the cajones that you followed up your story with. He really can't call if he doesn't have a monster.
On the whole, I agree with Benny about the river bet sizing.
July 7, 2012
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runningouts said:
bennymacca said:
also, i think you should post this without results next time
I definitely agree with this, it's not to make the hand more exciting for us, it's to eliminate bias from responses. It can be really hard to think objectively about what his river bet means when we already know he folds to the jam. I have a feeling that without that information your jam would look much more spewy to me.
So sorry I didnt leave out the result – I did select the option to not display the result in the Hand Converter but didnt proof read the outcome. Apologies for leaving the result in.
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