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Sunday Mulligan- line and range check vs strange villain (semi deep)
florianm1
Playing The Prelims
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March 9, 2013 - 8:16 pm
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sunday mulligan
semi deep.
villain runs 35/14 with flatting >30% LP opens. he has a 3bet stat of 3.2% no tendency to 3bet more aggro vs some positions
so therefore his 3bets are only value hands JJ+, AQs(50%),AK. villain has 5% roi with 86$ ABI on only 174 games.

here is the hand:

 

Full Tilt Poker The Sunday Mulligan No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t170/t340 Blinds + t25 – 9 players – View hand 2134284
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

d1sk0stu (UTG+2): BB = 14.9, t5077
mewezaso (MP1): BB = 13.3, t4515
florianm666 (MP2): BB = 43.9, t14930
WMACHINE (CO): BB = 11.9, t4039
Vincent_bg (BTN): BB = 13.0, t4415
galinka02 (SB): BB = 10.2, t3463
gana00r (BB): BB = 45.7, t15541
InFiniTiO (UTG): BB = 30.4, t10322
Viktor (UTG+1): BB = 27.3, t9283

Pre Flop: (t735) florianm666 is MP2 with A of diamonds 9 of diamonds
4 folds, florianm666 raises to t680, 3 folds, gana00r calls t340

Flop: (t1755) 3 of clubs 6 of clubs A of hearts (2 players)
gana00r bets t1020, florianm666 calls t1020

Turn: (t3795) 3 of diamonds (2 players)
gana00r bets t1020, florianm666 calls t1020

River: (t5835) Q of hearts (2 players)
gana00r bets t1020, florianm666 calls t1020

 

and here my thinking process

i would say he flats with about the following range:

TT-22,AQo-A2o,KQo-KJo,QJo-QTo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s,76s,65s (338.5combos due to card removal effects)

looking at the flop his preflop range is reduced to 281 combos.

at this point i look at my hand and believe it is 2-3 streets of value worth depending on how the board runs out.

the flop donk bet i assume is mostly top pair hands and flush draws.
i expect him to c/r 2pair, sets and big combo draws.

so his flop donking range consists of 69 top pair hands and 22.5 flushdraw hands adding up to combos i would also assign about 7 combos of random bluff hands adding up to total 90.4 combos.
against that range i  have 54% equity and i am only beat about 25% of the time in which case i might have some outs to redraw.

turn is an absolut blank as we ruled out sets and 2pairs on the flop.

now he donks the same amount as on the flop.

this bet to me loos like a FD trying to buy a cheap river, a weak Ax to pot control or a very bad random bluff. I imagine he would bet his better Ax bigger because of my perceived range which is very much Ax with x=t-2 as i would prob raise AT+ on the flop or
a flush draw and prob some floats

on the river his bet seems to be about the same as on the turn    

my questions to the hand are the following

1.) preflop range assignment?

2.) flop donking range?

3.) do you value raise flop? and then bet turn and check river to get 3 streets of value of FDs and weaker Ax?

4.) do you raise turn for value to not get freerolled? as he will make his perceived FD in about 19% of the times but is laying him self a prize for only 17%

5.) if you raise how big do you raise?

6.) are you raising the river for value?

7.) or do you just call to take some notes and probably profit on later streets more with the information you gained?

cheers for the input

markconkle
High Stakes Shark
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March 10, 2013 - 10:34 am
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1) I'm not very good at ranges yet, but it looks reasonable.

2) I think we need more information to answer this.  How often does villain donk-lead?  How aggressive post-flop is he generally?  Your read could be right, but some players would only lead top pair, other would include their strongest hands, and the amount of bluff will vary wildly from player to player.

3) I would say based on the range you have him on, you should definitely raise.  You are probably ahead, but villain has between 3 and 12 outs to beat you.  I like your line of then betting turn and checking river.  I think just clicking it back provides a lot of leverage based on stack size.

4) I would definitely raise turn for the reason you give but also the reason that happened.  Any 3, T, J, Q, K, or A counterfeits your kicker.  Plus clubs, and that's 25 cards you don't like!  This is the last chance to get value from flush draws and may be the last chance to get value from worse aces.  

5) At this point I would raise to 3500-4000 to threaten a pot-sized shove on river.  This may cause villain to fold, which is fine by you, now you don't have to dodge 25 bad rivers.

6) Definitely not.  The only hand you beat in his range that might call is a flush draw with the Q, while you lose to AQ.  There are 6 combos of AQ possible, but you put him on only 4 combos of Qxc, so you are actually behind when called.  Not to mention it's very possible he is folding those Qs and only calling when he is at least chopping.  It's doubtful he's folding a hand that is chopping with you either.  Calling the river is definitely right.

7) Notes are nice, but the reasons I mention above seem more important.

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