March 8, 2013
1) I'm not very good at ranges yet, but it looks reasonable.
2) I think we need more information to answer this. How often does villain donk-lead? How aggressive post-flop is he generally? Your read could be right, but some players would only lead top pair, other would include their strongest hands, and the amount of bluff will vary wildly from player to player.
3) I would say based on the range you have him on, you should definitely raise. You are probably ahead, but villain has between 3 and 12 outs to beat you. I like your line of then betting turn and checking river. I think just clicking it back provides a lot of leverage based on stack size.
4) I would definitely raise turn for the reason you give but also the reason that happened. Any 3, T, J, Q, K, or A counterfeits your kicker. Plus clubs, and that's 25 cards you don't like! This is the last chance to get value from flush draws and may be the last chance to get value from worse aces.
5) At this point I would raise to 3500-4000 to threaten a pot-sized shove on river. This may cause villain to fold, which is fine by you, now you don't have to dodge 25 bad rivers.
6) Definitely not. The only hand you beat in his range that might call is a flush draw with the Q, while you lose to AQ. There are 6 combos of AQ possible, but you put him on only 4 combos of Qxc, so you are actually behind when called. Not to mention it's very possible he is folding those Qs and only calling when he is at least chopping. It's doubtful he's folding a hand that is chopping with you either. Calling the river is definitely right.
7) Notes are nice, but the reasons I mention above seem more important.
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