May 6, 2013
Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t40/t80 Blinds – 8 players – View hand 2376222
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): t8076 100.95 BBs
BB: t9350 116.88 BBs
UTG: t17491 218.64 BBs
UTG+1: t11758 146.97 BBs
MP1: t4610 57.62 BBs
MP2: t12870 160.88 BBs
CO: t9050 113.12 BBs
BTN: t9230 115.38 BBs
Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is SB with K A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t200, 2 folds, CO calls t200, BTN calls t200, Hero raises to t1111, 2 folds, CO raises to t9050 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t6965 all in
Co was 36/6.
February 2, 2013
I think you should have folded here as it is so early in the tournament and you still have 85 BB when you fold.
I don't think him been a recreational player should make too much of a difference in your decision. Even if he has J 10 you are not a big favourite.
$ 215 is a lot of money to gamble with AK early. I watched Bigdog's videos of his two Sunday Million final table runs and I was taken back at how tight he was in the early stages.
November 4, 2013
This is an insta fold in the Mill. You are way too deep to be getting it in here with anything other than AA/KK. I can make a case for folding QQ here(seriously).
Honestly, given the action in front, I would probably just flat AK here and play it as a Small PP. Either hit the flop or put it in the muck. When you do hit the flop, you can decide how to proceed from there. If antes were in play, then I would play this a lot more like you have, but risking your stack in this Mill(i'm assuming it's the 5M GTD one), is just not worth it for the double at this point.
November 7, 2013
I'm curious as to why your supposed to be so tight. I can understand not taking flips and stuff like that, but I'd just be Sharkscoping everyone and getting into pots with the weak players.
You need chips wouldn't it be easier to get them off weak players now then battle for every one deep vs regs.
May 6, 2013
It is not that great, because we are deep in a huge field that is super soft, so by taking low variance lines, we give ourselves the best possible way to gain chips without going busto. At best we are flipping here and that isn`t really what we are looking for because winning this one flip early one doesn`t give us a huge edge.
1. Does the dead money in the pot matter assuming we can put AKo and QQ in his range and possibly even discount him playing AA this fast?
2. If you're less concerned about reducing variance and have the ability to re-enter, is this a spot you can take if you have the ability to play a big stack well? – I sometimes wonder if the guys that seem to make a lot of top 5 finishes play aggro early and take gambles like these.
November 4, 2013
MadBaltic said:
It is not that great, because we are deep in a huge field that is super soft, so by taking low variance lines, we give ourselves the best possible way to gain chips without going busto. At best we are flipping here and that isn`t really what we are looking for because winning this one flip early one doesn`t give us a huge edge.
November 4, 2013
Just something else that I discussed this afternoon with a good poker friend, that should probably be a consideration for this specific scenario.
Where did all these players come from? Normal Sunday Mill is about 7-7.5k players. This was 27,000. Yes, we had a MONSTER garuntee. So they come for that, which I understand… but where in the poker world did they come from. How did they get thier buy ins? A huge majority of the players are going to be rec players enticed by the big number, or small grinders taking their shot at glory. Stars ran HUGE sat's to get in.
This means the overall level of the field is going to be much softer than what is already considered one of the softest tournaments online. Which, for me, was another reason to just play super tight and grind it out. The hands will come.
OneTime1Time said:
Just something else that I discussed this afternoon with a good poker friend, that should probably be a consideration for this specific scenario.
Where did all these players come from? Normal Sunday Mill is about 7-7.5k players. This was 27,000. Yes, we had a MONSTER garuntee. So they come for that, which I understand… but where in the poker world did they come from. How did they get thier buy ins? A huge majority of the players are going to be rec players enticed by the big number, or small grinders taking their shot at glory. Stars ran HUGE sat's to get in.
This means the overall level of the field is going to be much softer than what is already considered one of the softest tournaments online. Which, for me, was another reason to just play super tight and grind it out. The hands will come.
Glad you are here. With two deep runs in the Milli, I take what you say to heart and it is how I feel as well. Due to this, I cant seem to understand how a guy like Ari Engel (yeah I'm stalking him) can play so aggressively early and final table, even win so many tournaments without playing AKs like this.
Is he playing his good hands slowly and only raising with a super polarized/unbalanced range early like trash and KK+? I swear it seemed like that dude never folded a BTN or BB. He always 3-bet/5-bet or flatted/check raised/triple barreled. It's hard to believe he isn't being aggressive with AKs.
Granted he re-enters tournaments like he has a limitless bankroll and busts with a top 10 stack on the bubble sometimes. There is nothing low variance about him.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I think your preflop 3bet is way too big. That's the only reason you're going to end up having to call here. You can easily make it 850 with much more maneuverability.
Once we make it >1k, I think it's hard to fold. I think 3betting pre is fine, but the reason you have to call is because you made it a sizing where your opponent would struggle to 4bet/call or 4bet/fold. I might be inclined to 3bet/fold if he made a small 4bet because that would be much more weighted towards trappy hands, but when he backshoves like this I just can't give him credit for KK+, which is going to almost certainly make this a call.
Once we get shoved on, the pot is 9907. We have to call 6965. 9907+6965 = 16872
6965/16872 = 0.412. We need 41% equity. If we give him JJ+ AK+, we have nearly 43% equity. If we discount KK+, we have around 48% even if we add some lower pairs, and obviously if we add AQ our equity is going to shoot up. It's a crappy, high-variance spot to get in this early in the Million, but we can't fold, and if we 3bet to a smaller sizing preflop we would have a lot more options.
November 4, 2013
Coming from a math based background, I have to agree that mathmatically it is a mistake to fold. However, the logic approach I have been taking lately tells me that this is a fold. Math is great to use, but we can't rely on it soley for making decisions.
The problem with a math only approach is that it only tells you what your expected equity should be from any given situation. It doesn't, and can't factor in what you will do with that equity or how having that equity at any specific point in a tournament will effect your outcome in it. I feel that taking high variance plays early on in a tournament is a recipe for destroying your stack. There is an intrinsic value to having chips left in front of you because you decided to fold instead of calling a very likely coinflip for you life early on.
If we have 17k here, I say call. We don't have that many however. We lose this, and we are out of the tournament.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
In a lot of ways you're right, but I just don't think this is as thin an edge as you're assuming it is. The Sunday Million happens every week, it's not the One Drop where we have to be incredibly careful about risking our whole stack because the ICM value of everything is massive. Yes, it's completely true that winning this pot doesn't affect our equity in the tournament as much as losing it does, but considering that there's a probable 7% gap between the equity we need and the equity we have, I think that's far, far too big of an edge to pass up.
We obviously can't rely solely on math for making decisions, but we also can't turn down spots that we can prove are extremely profitable based purely on the possibility of gaining future equity. If we continually turn down these extremely profitable spots, we're neutralizing whatever future equity we have, because our equity in the tournament comes from our ability to make good decisions. Turning down a 7% equity/pot-odds advantage is not a good decision in any spot. If we could guarantee he did have KK+ in his range here and never ever had AQ, 43% equity might be thin enough for me to find a fold, but not a potential 48% or higher with KK+ out of his range.
Incidentally, I still maintain that the key issue here is the 3bet sizing, because the fact that we're facing a decision here is a direct result of 3betting way too big.
Glad to see that this discussion is still going. If possible, can you post your thoughts on this.
Glad you are here. With two deep runs in the Milli, I take what you say to heart and it is how I feel as well. Due to this, I cant seem to understand how a guy like Ari Engel (yeah I'm stalking him) can play so aggressively early and final table, even win so many tournaments without playing AKs like this.
Is he playing his good hands slowly and only raising with a super polarized/unbalanced range early like trash and KK+? I swear it seemed like that dude never folded a BTN or BB. He always 3-bet/5-bet or flatted/check raised/triple barreled. It's hard to believe he isn't being aggressive with AKs.
Granted he re-enters tournaments like he has a limitless bankroll and busts with a top 10 stack on the bubble sometimes. There is nothing low variance about him.
February 2, 2013
I am a very average player like a lot of members on this site. The Sunday Million is like the one drop to a lot of us.i have to agree fully with One Time. It is too big of a risk to take. Even with the big 3 bet, we still have loads of chips. From an amateur point of view, if I called the all in with AK and lose, I would say to myself “WTF did I do that for”. It would probably be a bad call for all our stack in a 100nl cash game.
Having said that Ginger, I might call for the fun of it in a 1 dollar tourney. Maybe you play so many high stakes tourneys that the Sunday million is like low buy in tourney. To state the obvious, in tourneys “When you are gone, you are gone”. And with it the chance of a huge payday.
Losing 100bbs with AK is not what I want to be doing.
November 4, 2013
As I was trying to say, I don't totally disagree with what Ginger is saying. It will all come down to a comfort level per player I think. I'm not personally comfortable calling off 100BB with AK. I will ship 100bb in with AK though. I also play the Sun Mill every week I can. For the player who only plays it once a month, it might require a different approach. It's all relative.
What I do agree 100% with, is the bet sizing being wrong. It's way too big, and it's actually what creates us our “equity”. If we had bet smaller, our “equity” would be smaller. Had we bet bigger, I suppose our only intentions would be to get it in and this would be irrelevant then. You could probably 3bet to like 750 or 800 and get the same result you get going to 1111. However, it does give you a lot more movements.
From Villain POV, this is a nice spot to shove. There is a lot of dead chips in the middle, and if we have 99+, we are likely getting it in on the positive side of flips.
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