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Sunday Million FT - Pretty certain this is ICM suicide
NWPoker88
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September 1, 2015 - 9:57 pm
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Made my first Sunday Million Final Table a few weeks ago, and am still bummed that I took such a high variance spot so early into the FT.  Villain on btn had stats of 45/41/5 over a 72 hand sample.  He had been super agg ever since he gained a chiplead once we were down to 2 tables.  He had opened hijack/cutoff/btn 100% when folded to when we were @ two tables, and I didn’t really think of what the best line would be in this spot long enough. Really feel like I blew a massive opportunity here.  Thoughts?

Note: It says we’re 7 handed because the 2nd table had just broke as we began this hand, so two players had to wait 1 hand before being dealt in. Stacks of other two were 7.533m and 2.709m.

PokerStars – $200+$15|125000/250000 Ante 25000 NL – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: …..racker.com

UTG+1: 6.92 BB (VPIP: 14.85, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 102)
MP: 17.94 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 11)
CO: 21.89 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 10)
BTN: 86.99 BB (VPIP: 44.93, PFR: 40.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 72)
SB: 21.73 BB (VPIP: 15.57, PFR: 15.25, 3Bet Preflop: 9.26, Hands: 122)
Hero (BB): 12.95 BB
UTG: 17.81 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has Kd Qc
fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12.85 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 10.85 BB

Flop : (26.89 BB, 2 players) Jc 5s 5d

Turn : (26.89 BB, 2 players) 9c

River : (26.89 BB, 2 players) 4d

Hero shows Kd Qc (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 74%, Flop 16%, Turn 16%)

BTN shows Ks Jh (Two Pair, Jacks and Fives)
(Pre 26%, Flop 84%, Turn 84%)

BTN wins 26.89 BB

folding_aces_pre_yo
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September 1, 2015 - 11:06 pm
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yeah shoving here can’t be good because of ICM, i’d just call pre.

BigSnowball
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September 2, 2015 - 5:01 am
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You did right imo. 

What are you waiting for if you don’t shove here? Any other table you would surely do the same v somebody opening 100%. Gutted for you it ran out like that and was SMFT 

You’ll be back

GL

florianm1
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September 2, 2015 - 9:43 am
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without calculating it i think shoving seems fine.

 

def better than calling. you get pushed off way too often and you can also make way bigger ICM mistakes once preflop. For example you flat , flop is Kxxx no draw and IP 3barrels 

 

look at Sanchez hand at EPT Barca FT to see what i mean.

joelshitshow
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September 4, 2015 - 8:51 pm
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I would shove too, but here’s my question: How important is it that we have a king blocker instead of an ace blocker? I guess it doesn’t matter as much as loose as V was.

GunnJD
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September 5, 2015 - 7:51 am
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I’m sure there is a right answer to your question. It just requires inputting all the details. If you have PT4, I believe it can tell after you input the prizes. 

 

The short stack (6.92bb) is UTG+1 and will be going through the blinds in a couple hands. Folding and letting that happen really puts pressure on him. 

 

That being said, it is probably close. Obviously this is a good shove. Only one way to get #1 I suppose and that is to chip up! Sorry you got coolered, but congrats on the score.

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