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Stuck playing passively from SB multi-way with flopped open ender (76)

derSchwartz

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July 30, 2014 - 1:16 am

Good evening TPE,

This hand comes from a $5, 6max MTT with around 10 players remaining. The table has been rather sticky so far, most players doing plenty of open limping, floating and chasing. The villain has only played 34 hands with me, playing 41/0, open limping 37%, no 3 betting so far, no stealing so far, no chance to Cbet although his agg factor was 6.5, so I think he was commonly betting his limped flops? (I don't think those bets count as Cbets, right?) 67% fold to Cbet.

Merge Network $1K Gtd [6-Max] (78107175-1) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2000.00/t4000.00 Blinds + t400.00 – 5 players – View hand 2549158
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

COJAK1 (): BB = 23.2, t92822
Hero (): BB = 17.3, t69326
h3Atish (): BB = 37.3, t149329
Jlabord1 (): BB = 50.7, t202644
clambaby (): BB = 6.7, t26816

Pre Flop: (t8000) Hero is with 6 of spades 7 of hearts

Jlabord1 calls t4000, clambaby calls t4000, 1 fold, Hero calls t2000, h3Atish checks

Flop: (t18000) 3 of clubs 5 of diamonds 8 of spades (4 players)

Hero checks, h3Atish checks, Jlabord1 bets t8000.00, clambaby calls t8000,

My first instinct was to fold here because I was completing to flop a monster. I'm clearly behind and need to preserve my stack, but I saw that for 2BB off my 16BB stack I could find the nuts against two players, one of whom might well double me up. Either of them could easily have a pair here as their open-limp/limp behind ranges were pretty wide. If clambaby has a pair he will not fold to a shove here, and if Jlabord has an 8 he will not fold IMO. These combined factors seemed to prevent me from wanting to raise. I figured I'd peel one card as the BB left to act will not likely shove.

Hero calls t8000, h3Atish folds

Turn: (t42000) 6 of diamonds (3 players)

I figure now I have showdown value, and still a good draw. I didn't have position and couldn't narrow ranges much. Should I have bet here with my added hand value and considering that my flop check/call could be perceived as strong? A bet would also have gained me information about their hands. Instead I chose to try keeping the pot small.

Hero checks, Jlabord1 checks, clambaby checks

River: (t42000) Q of hearts (3 players)

Well that's not good. I'm not gonna try to steal it here, that's for sure.

Hero checks, Jlabord1 bets t16000.00, clambaby folds, Hero?

Well, I now put him on a range that includes many queens, plenty of eights, and several pocket pairs that beat me. But his bet was small enough not to cripple me, and could be any missed AX hand, missed broadway or a few others hands that I beat.

I think this was the worst hand I played in the tournament, and hope to correct any leaks this may represent.

My best guess is that I should have folded on the flop. Any comments?

Thanks for reading! Keep crushing.

Foucault

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July 30, 2014 - 11:15 am

Folded the flop?!?! No, you should definitely not fold an eight-out draw to the nuts getting 6:1.Whether or not to raise the flop comes down to whether you think you have fold equity. Calling is guaranteed +EV, so it's just a question of whether they'll fold often enough to make shoving more +EV. That's not just about asking whether they COULD have a pair, it's about putting them each on ranges and looking at how often they'll have hands that could call a shove.

Calling the river is not really consistent with your flop decision not to shove. On the flop you decide that UTG probably has a pretty strong range, then on the river you start talking about missed Ax and broadway. Are those really hands he would bet into three people on the flop?

“Small enough not to cripple me” is not the right criterion for whether to call the river. Look at ranges and pot odds. You need 27.5% equity to break-even on the call. You might want to round that as high as 33% for ICM considerations at this stage of the tournament. Do you think you'll win one time in three if you call?

Foucault

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July 30, 2014 - 11:16 am

I meant to add that turning a 6 isn't a reason to bet the turn, it still doesn't put you ahead of many of the hands you were worried about on the flop, and if you are behind then overall your equity has decreased as a result of having just one card to come now. So again whether to bet turn comes down to whether they will fold better hands.

derSchwartz

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July 30, 2014 - 11:37 am

Thanks for the response Andrew.

Based on what you say, I am ok with my choice not to shove the flop although I could be mistaken about how unsuccessful it would have been in taking it down. Did you mean I decided UTG had a “wide” range? I didn't mean to imply I thought UTG was “strong.” It was wide, but strong to include all the hands that hit this flop, and to include all the decent hands that miss, as usual. I may have underestimated how well a flop shove would have worked.

I did call the river, which I think was a mistake. In retrospect, I do not think I would have won 1 in 3 times but I think it was close. You make a good point that he may have been unlikely to bet the flop with missed broadway cards, but in this villain's case I think he may well have done just that.

When I said his bet would not cripple me, I thought it was a factor because we have to weigh the consequences of losing a pot vs. the benefits of winning? What will my stack and their stacks look like after a call and loss vs. a call and win vs. a fold? In this case it seemed that because my stack would not have been too weak after a loss but would have gained much strength after a win, I wanted to call despite pot odds seeming borderline. If he had bet larger, then (in addition to pot odds being worse) a loss would have given me too much weakness and the strength gained from winning would not have been much different from that gained with the small river bet.

One more quesiton – would folding preflop have been too nitty?

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