I think this spot is close and comes down a few important factors. First of all, I think it’s a mistake for the BTN to flat any part of his range here, simply because of the stack sizes behind. If you shove in your stack over his flat he’s getting almost 3-1 to call off vs you which means he should never be folding…UNLESS he’s bad enough to fold to your over-shove, which very well may be the case seeing though flatted in the first place and this is an $10 mtt with lots of bad players. 

The other important factor here is, less experienced players will often flat in spots like this with the top of the ranges (ie. AA, KK – which of course you block both of) thinking it will induce more action, but of course it just looks stronger and discourages at against most opponents. 

Now, when the jammer in the h/j open shoves 22 bbs, we can exclude the biggest hands from his range (unless we have a specific read, as the vast majority of opponents are inducing 88+, AQ+ and even wider depending on their style, experience level, etc.) So their range is typically something like 22-77, AT-AQ, KQ, and suited broadways – which we crush with AK obv. 

The BTN is the wildcard in this situation. It’s hard to know exactly what his range is here and what hands he chooses to flat with and which ones he chooses to jam with. But, we know know he’s bad enough to flat in a spot where he really shouldnt be. I think there is a chance he can have a hands like 99-JJ and AQ and fold them to your jam. The only way I think we can fold here is if we’re almost certain the BTN is only flatting with QQ+, and in this situation, I don’t think we can make that assumption. 

I like that you are looking for high variance spots to pass up on in soft tournies, but I think this spot in particular is too profitable to pass up. If the BTN folds even 10% of the time to your jam, we’re loosing massive equity here and we have decent equity with AK when he calls us.