Tough spot……

In terms of flop action, I probably check/call flop and then evaluate the Turn card.

The way you've played the hand, it looks like you're on the flush draw or have the TEN, so jamming the river against a 'normal' villiain may work if they're holding 77/88…… but against this guy with history who called your jam of 14xBB with QJ the hand before, I think he looks you up pretty light here 44/22 plus everything that beats us. Plus you only have a half pot shove stack on the river, not much FE there with that stack…..

Any idea what his limp range from early position is? Had you seen a showdown from previous hands with a limp from EP?

I think it's probably check/fold river…. leaves you with 7649, so hopefully he doubles you up again in another hand…..

bennymacca said:

to be honest, i think this is very much spew

 

on the turn, what do you expect villain to fold? i doubt any of villain's flop check raise calling range folds on that turn. 

 

there are a bunch of higher pocket pairs here that dont fold the way you have played it. 

 

i much prefer a pot control line. i would probably check call flop and re-evaluate, and probably the same on the turn

I think checkraise flop is pretty standard here. He's no stranger to raising preflop so i think 77 – AA he would raise it
pre, if he raises QJo in EP he's raising these, so i rarely give him
these hands. The only hands i have in his range are Tx, 5x, xh xh. I want to get value from his FD and 5x range before any overs come to scare him. Plus i take it down if he is just stabbing an orphaned pot

Now i look at it i think turn is a perfect barreling card because i continue to get value from the FD and 5x, no overcards came to scare him/me. When he flats i'm no longer giving him Tx because we would've heard from him by now. I dont expect him to fold a lot on this turn card, i dont want him to lol

Dont think this is spew at all against opponents at this level. They play pretty straight forward for the most part and im taking advantage of this. The question is do i check/fold, check/call or lead river?

are theses the hands you think he bets the flop or bet/calls the flop?

This is closer to what i think on the turn, so you should add in the turn card before the calculation. I would add in all suited Kings and more queens K2s+, Q8s+, Remove KhQh, 88, 77, KhJh, QhJh because he raises them preflop i think (since he raised QJo last hand)

On the flop when he leads the 1k he has so many more randoms in there. J9o, 78o etc. that i think he would take a stab at this flop with because nobody else seems interested. Which is why i checkraise him in order that he folds out all these overcards to my pair because they have good equity vs me (25% ish)