June 1, 2012
FT itm. Villian seems very good and isn’t calling light. Others are all pretty bad and l/f constantly with no idea about stack sizes etc. I’ve been playing pretty tight with 2 big stack crazy fish either side who can’t fold unless shoved into pre. Have to admit I was in a chat window on the side while in this hand 🙂
Revolution Gaming Network - $10+$1|300/600 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 5 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 SB: 30,401.00 BB: 11,064.00 UTG: 20,699.00 CO: 29,842.00 Hero (BTN): 9,994.00 SB posts ante 60.00, BB posts ante 60.00, UTG posts ante 60.00, CO posts ante 60.00, Hero posts ante 60.00, SB posts SB 300.00, BB posts BB 600.00 Pre Flop: (pot: 1200.00) Hero has A 8 [color=red]UTG raises to 1,200.00[/color], CO calls 1,200.00, [color=red]Hero raises to 9,934.00 and is all-in[/color], fold, fold, [color=red]UTG raises to 18,668.00[/color], fold Flop: (22268.00, 2 players) 5 J J Turn: (22268.00, 2 players) Q River: (22268.00, 2 players) 7 UTG shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (Pre 68%, Flop 84%, Turn 95%) Hero shows A 8 (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 32%, Flop 16%, Turn 5%) UTG wins 22,268.00
September 29, 2012
This is not standard, but player dependent. Without proper reads, it’s probably a fold, if the opener is wide enough then we can shove. I think he needs to be opening something like 18%+ here and he’s probably calling top 5% and your A is a blocker to you being totally crushed, you have equity when called. Against top 5% you are 30%. So blinds fold 95% each and if he’s opening 18%, he folds like 72% of the time. Cutoff folds almost 100% as most of the call range would be a 3 bet if he had it. If he calls with a weaker hand after it folds to him, great, you are 60/40 or flipping, ewhich is a good result too.
So we have 65% FE and our hand is 30% so:
3600*65% + 35%([22268*30%] – 9934) = 1,251 +cEV. Which is a 2 BB + expectation. Taking money factors into account, this would be about the smallest edge I would want, maybe 1.5 BBs might be the lowest.
So if the first player is opening wide enough, then it is a shove. If he's adjusting to stacks expecting a shove form you or the BB, he's probably playing a little tighter than 18% here.
June 1, 2012
Thanks guys. I'll think twice next time this happens.
I should clarify that I was 95% sure that the CO would fold or call with a worse hand, based on history. I was using this as a reason to shove knowing that the opener “might” fold with the flatter behind.
This dude in the CO was playing so bad that I didn't think twice about being ahead of his range (if he even called.) Though the raiser would have known this too I guess 🙂
I tank fold here on the regular, but given the CO flat, I’m much more inclinded to put my man pants on and shovel pre. The flatter’s call PFR/ and 3b % would go a long way here.
The openers PFR and foldto3bet obv would help as well, but in my eyes this play is much more about stack sizes.
Am I in the ballpark here? Or is this logic flawed? The CO flat is an interesting dynamic 5handed
July 5, 2012
I think a fold is best. You are likely to get called by one, and A8 just doesn't play that well against their calling ranges.
Would you ship this hand if it was unsuited? I know that shouldn't matter, but some players snap fold the A,8 offsuit, but feel inclined to jam the Suited Ax
If this were a higher buyin tournament, that flat from the CO would look super scary to me. “good” players are often flatting big hands there to induce squeeze shoves from the “resteal” stacks (12-25 bbs ish ish)
Think we can def be more patient here and reshove hands with better equity against a single opponent or jam from LP with FE in the blinds on later hands.
September 29, 2012
kingten102 said:
I think a fold is best. You are likely to get called by one, and A8 just doesn't play that well against their calling ranges.
Actually, if the opener's range is wide enough, which is most imporant here, A8s is a good choice, as the A is a blocker to alot of hands that would likely call. It reduces the amount of times he has AA, AK, AQ, and AJ hands from 54 possible hands to only 38.
September 29, 2012
StrangeFame said:
I tank fold here on the regular, but given the CO flat, I'm much more inclinded to put my man pants on and shovel pre. The flatter's call PFR/ and 3b % would go a long way here.
The openers PFR and foldto3bet obv would help as well, but in my eyes this play is much more about stack sizes.Am I in the ballpark here? Or is this logic flawed? The CO flat is an interesting dynamic 5handed
I think there are three important factors here:
1) How wide is the opener opening
2) How your hand plays against the range or affects the range
3) Stack sizes
I don't think anyone is more or less important than any other, except for number 2. Alot of times, I may look for a hand with some sort of benefot, high cards, suited and connected or at least just connected some way. I rarely do high low combinations. But in some cases, 1 and 3 are so perfect and the tournament situation is such that sometimes you just have to pull the trigger even when your hand is less than perfect.
kingten102 said:
I think a fold is best. You are likely to get called by one, and A8 just doesn't play that well against their calling ranges.
Would you ship this hand if it was unsuited? I know that shouldn't matter, but some players snap fold the A,8 offsuit, but feel inclined to jam the Suited Ax
If this were a higher buyin tournament, that flat from the CO would look super scary to me. “good” players are often flatting big hands there to induce squeeze shoves from the “resteal” stacks (12-25 bbs ish ish)
Think we can def be more patient here and reshove hands with better equity against a single opponent or jam from LP with FE in the blinds on later hands.
5handed – A8s is pretty much the nuts. this one shove would net us the eqivalent of three open shoves.
Even extreme nits take these ft spots (or atleast strongly consider shoving),, under 20bbs shorthanded is pretty desperate time shiiz,
again – look at the stacks, legit spot to force big folds from opener. Not really concered with the CO either way. sucks when CO shows A9-AJ, but aside from that i dont see us dominated that often.
June 1, 2012
StrangeFame said:
I tank fold here on the regular, but given the CO flat, I'm much more inclinded to put my man pants on and shovel pre. The flatter's call PFR/ and 3b % would go a long way here.
The openers PFR and foldto3bet obv would help as well, but in my eyes this play is much more about stack sizes.Am I in the ballpark here? Or is this logic flawed? The CO flat is an interesting dynamic 5handed
—————-
-I've got 66 hands on the flatter. He's playing 47/33 so very loose. His Call PFR=27%(8/30 times) but at this FT it was a lot higher from memory. His Call PR3b%=0(0/3 times.)
-Opener is 24/11 over 90 hands. His F3b=50%(2/4 times.)
-I wouldn’t ship if it wasn'’t suited as suited has a lot more equity if called imo.
-As the villian seems to be a solid player I should also have realised that he would have the same Call PR3B% stats on the flatter as well.
Hope this makes sense 🙂
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
40 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Habanerra
CSerpent
KJ
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12011
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1