I agree w/bigdog that it’s a lot of chips to shove. I like it more if stack sizes where reversed since he risks to bust and we don’t. A fold might be better, also because we only have to move up 5 / 6 spots to get ITM. In general I don’t think we should play to min cash, but we shouldn’t risk not cashing when it’s not necessary either.

I think it’s a fold because I don’t think villain will open here 75%+ of his range most of the time. Especially since he’s been active and he might tighten up a bit. I think close to 40%-50% would be more accurate (of course it’s just guessing). His calling range I agree (5.4%).

So let’s change those numbers and see the cEV off a shove then.

Math:
Villain will call our shove ( 5,4% / 50% =) 11% of the time. 

I think a re-steal should increase our stack with 10% or more to make it worth the risk. We start the hand with ~24K and 10% of 24K = 2.4K (= 3BBs). 
If we make more then 2,4K I think it’s okay to shove, if we make less I think we should fold.

If we range him with 75%+ openings range, then we have a clear shove here. This also helps with the fact that we tell him to slow down and stop raising our BB and give us a little more respect. So I shove for sure against this openraise range.

If we range him with 50% openings range, then a shove would show 2456,40 T$ profit and it becomes on the edge. However, I think because his range is so wide and he raised the previous three times as well and it would be good to make a stand, I think shoving turns out to be a good play here. 

@RonFezBuddy
I did the same math as you (* with your numbers) because I didn’t understood why you did two times 0,07% * xxxxxxxx. But now I understood your why. The answer underneath isn’t correct (It doesn’t make it logical when you read it).

.07                           *  ((26076*.272) + (-22201*.727)) = -9047

You better write it down like this:

.07                           *  ((26076*.272) + (-22201*.727)) = -633
.07                           *  -9047 = -633

Just makes more sense for people to understand, imo.

bigdogpckt5s said:

Its to many chips to shove imo. And I know the history you guys have in sngs so 3 bet folding kinda is bad in this spot. I think I would just fold. There will be better spots.

i agree dog we do have history however i had watched him open extremly light , and i watched him raise call 30 bigs 2 times 1 time showing q5 suited the other time 10 7 off but looking back i like a fold my stack is alittle big

RonFezBuddy said:

This hand is intriguing me.  I mean it’s clearly +EV even with a 50% opening range, and not by a little – by nearly 3bbs at least.

 

We’re on the bubble and he covers us so there is $EV to consider here, although in the 50/50 it’s such a small dollar amount (~$75 usually right?) – i’d prefer to not care about the money in this situation.

 

Yet, big dog advises we fold and I can’t disagree.  I feel like 30bbs is a huge shove too.  However, if all math is pointing to shoving why do we want to fold here.

 

big dog, what stack size makes this a shove for you?

 ya it was a weird spot for me. i had looked in the lobby and blinds were due to increase to 500/1000 in 2 mins giving me 24 bigs and seeing how much southcjay7 was opening however hes been known to call me extremly light. i watched him open and then call a reshove 2 times he had q5 suited and anther time showed 10 7 so hes clearly raise calling light and had been raising my button the last few orbits , ive never been 1 to care about busting on the bubble but my stack size verses his i felt i had good fe most of the time given the bubble situation. however if he is calling this light im not sure how profitable it is longterm but in this spot verses a guy whos opening light alot im probally shoving just about anything that flops well with my stack size and 5 to the money not sure if its a leak. but i think i get enough folds here longterm , and ron i agree the math supports a shove but im not 1 to disagree with bigd im curious as to what hands he might jam in this spot like any pair suited cards most aces  so maybe 22+ kq+ ace10+ 67s + 9 10 + i just hate my stack sizing here 5 bbs either way makes it alot more playable imo 5 less shove 5 more i cant probally 3 bet fold to a shove .

So what should we be taking away from this thread? As a new player to MMTs I take away several things.

1 The Math says its a shove ( but we dont always time to figure the math in the battle, we just need to know that its probably correct giving what we know about our villians hand range)

2 Our stack size is ackward too big to shove to small to 3bet and flatting is just horrible.

3 That if we do shove the villian may call with anything and we are just gambling when we have enough chips to not make this a MANDATORY shove

4 We can find a better spot

** I like what Casey says sometimes “Im just not feeling it.”   This hand with this info would probably give me that feeling**

Any other things I missed about this discussion?