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SS FT, float check-raise, turn the nuts

Gareth Chantler

Grinding Micros

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October 14, 2013 - 6:39 am

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t225000/t450000 Blinds + t45000 – 9 players – View hand 2328157
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

CO: BB = 37.9, t17069874
BTN: BB = 25.0, t11230503
SB: BB = 21.3, t9588948
Hero (BB): BB = 51.3, t23083978
UTG: BB = 33.0, t14847416
UTG+1: BB = 86.4, t38874513
UTG+2: BB = 76.9, t34618374
MP1: BB = 19.3, t8696404
MP2: BB = 41.9, t18864990

Pre Flop: (t1080000) Hero is BB with 9 of spades J
7 folds, SB raises to t900000, Hero calls t450000

Flop: (t2205000) 7 of diamonds 2 of hearts 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t655555, SB raises to t1800000, Hero calls t1144445

Turn: (t5805000) J of diamonds (2 players)
SB checks, Hero

Villain is 20/20/11 over just 15 hands.

Preflop: no other course of action allowed (software actually grayed out my fold/raise buttons).

Flop: I just don't believe him. Also, I am going to call 1.1 here to win 4.7 or so. I can afford to be wrong and see another barrel pretty often if I can take the pot away sometimes and/or improve. If I float and hit a non heart 9 or J I am going to treat it as the nuts.

Turn: Okay here is where it gets interesting to me. This looks like a coordinated board where the valuable nuts wants to protect its equty in the pot. There are 3 overcards to fear, two flush draws, and at least eight gutters. But let's look closer.

5.8M in the pot and about 6.9M back in effective stacks. If villain had a gutshot or a flush draw they have the option of following up their 1.8M check-raise with a shove or a 2.2M barrel. Either put pressure on me and the Jd is ostensibly a scare card. A value hand from villain makes no sense to check also, because of the board. To some guy playing the Storm I think this is going to look like a very scary situation with a set. 9th is like 3k or something and 1st is 30k. So I don't see any checks from value hands.

Two-over card hands make no sense. Villain would check-call or c-bet AK/AQ. Villain could barrel them, inc KQ, if they randomly check-raised the flop. I think the three two over hands AK/AQ/KQ all make little sense.

So far I think villain basically never has these hands: value hands, two overs, flush draws. I also think its pretty unlikely they have any gutshot.

What does that leave? It leaves pairs like 2X/3X/44/7X/99 that check-raise flop but are scared. I see these as more likely than the above, but still pretty unlikely. Why wouldn't villain c-bet these hands? Checking the turn with A2 could make sense for villain, but only if they decided against both c-bet and check-call on the flop in favour of check-raise.

Okay, so this is where I am getting. Not only do we have the nuts, but we basically have the invulnerable nuts. The most outs villain seems likely to have is 3 with a hand like Q8.

Therefore I think we want to check-back and treat our hand like the nuts on any card J or lower including hearts and diamonds. Who likes this plan?

Edit: I should add, even if he has all the gutshots, that's not that important imo. He has 9% equity. Ruling all these hands out doesn't just help us evaluate our equity/vulnerability on the turn, but helps us play rivers well, hopefully very well.

AJLV

Lighting Money On Fire

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October 14, 2013 - 12:27 pm

I think you should consider your own apparent range, not just his. You will complete the BB for a min raise with an extremely wide range, and bet pretty much any flop when checked to. 2h3h7d, even if you hit that flop a reasonable player would expect you to have very weak pairs, possible flush draws etc, hands which cannot stand a check raise. So I think his check raise makes sense with almost anything, even Ah2d or some crap like that. But you call. So now I think he has to put you on a hand with pretty decent equity, 87o, 55 etc. When he checks turn he either has air, an extremely marginal hand with a small amount of sd value etc that is probably folding to your turn bet or imo a draw. I don't think he puts many J in your range, so the turn to him is probably a blank, he is going to call down with 66/88 etc as well as call with his flush draws.

So I think you are in a spot where he either has a weak made hand, a draw, or complete air that is completely done with the hand after he took a stab with the check raise, I don't agree that flush draws are not in his range when he check raises the flop then checks the turn, that looks draw heavy to me. I think you need to bet the turn for value, 1/2 pot or something that will bring along his weak made hands and draws then evaluate the river and expect to bluff catch non-heart rivers. If he does have air he isn't giving you any money on the river anyway. I think checking turn fails to get equity from all the hands you beat, and when a heart does fall on the river you are either beat when he makes his flush, or not getting anymore value from his smaller pairs. Get value on the turn.

Question though, why not just raise the J9s pre?

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