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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy squeeze or flat on the BTN with JQs…

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squeeze or flat on the BTN with JQs?

folding_aces_pre_yo

High Stakes Mario Kart Propping

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September 22, 2015 - 10:51 pm

#Game No : 539473389
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 539473389 *****
$2,500/$5,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #72585804 $2.70 + $0.30 – Table #49 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Ches2law ( $9,336 )
Seat 2: gee2011 ( $251,387 )
Seat 3: Massabena ( $147,944 )
Seat 4: Dalas106 ( $256,797 )
Seat 5: Jordigoomezz ( $294,115 )
Seat 6: andyisere ( $254,590 )
Seat 9: Rogersthiele ( $322,318 )
Seat 10: london_ace ( $123,660 )
Ches2law posts ante [$625]
Dalas106 posts ante [$625]
london_ace posts ante [$625]
andyisere posts ante [$625]
Massabena posts ante [$625]
gee2011 posts ante [$625]
Jordigoomezz posts ante [$625]
Rogersthiele posts ante [$625]
Ches2law posts small blind [$2,500]
gee2011 posts big blind [$5,000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ Q heart , J heart ]
Massabena folds
Dalas106 raises [$10,000]
Jordigoomezz folds
andyisere folds
Rogersthiele calls [$10,000]
london_ace calls [$10,000]
Ches2law folds
gee2011 calls [$5,000]
** Dealing flop ** [ 6d, Qd, 7h ]
gee2011 checks
Dalas106 checks
Rogersthiele checks
london_ace bets [$23,750]
gee2011 folds
Dalas106 folds
Rogersthiele folds
** Summary **

hey

reads – v which opened has limped in a few times and has made few raises here and their , i have not seem them really get out of line. The other opponent they tend to call pre with marginal hands pretty often , so yeah i reckon both of these players are weak overall.

I was thinking of squeezing, but honestly i cant figure out the maths if it would be ev+ to shove here. i’d assume v is opening up probably around 20% ish of hands here and probably calling with like 10% , that’s just a rough estimate. anyhow i decided to flat given that our hand has decent equity vs their opening range.

thoughts?

cheers

theginger45

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September 23, 2015 - 9:35 pm

If villain really is opening 20% and calling 10%, then I imagine shoving pre is likely to get enough folds here to be profitable. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best play by any means.

You have no real concrete reads on anyone here – I think you should be aiming to do a little better than ‘a few raises here and there, weak overall’ as far as reads go before you try to make an exploitative play like this. For example, if instead of opening 20% and calling 10%, your villain is opening 15% and calling 12%, shoving suddenly becomes pretty bad, but if they’re opening 30% and calling 10%, shoving is really good. I think you need to be more specific with the ranges you put people on before you can make exploitative reads, especially since villain 1 is opening in EP at an 8-handed table and likely has a limping range, meaning their RFI% (Raise First In %) could be a lot lower than 20% here.

We also need to keep in mind that flat-calling here is likely to be extremely profitable, given how strong of a hand QJs is to take to a flop in position. It’s going to be a very good spot for us postflop, and that may very well outweigh any profit we can make preflop.

The question isn’t “is it +EV to shove here?” – it probably is, if your reads are correct. The question is “is shoving the most +EV play available?”, and as it stands, you don’t have enough reads to be confident in that. I think until you have a more specific idea of villains’ ranges and frequencies, calling is the better play here.

folding_aces_pre_yo

High Stakes Mario Kart Propping

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September 25, 2015 - 7:44 pm

thanks ginger much appreciated.

If v is opening up much less then 20% , let’s say we know they’re opening 8% of hands or maybe even less , do u think calling with QJs would be profitable in this situation?

against a tighter range our hand will have higher reversed implied odds, for example flop Qxx v bets, the effective stacks will be around 20bb , we probably would have to make a decision right there OTF and get our money in not sure about calling flop and re-evaluating turn in that spot as for folding its hard to get away from. so probably shove>call>fold.

thoughts?

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