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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Spot vs Gboro

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Spot vs Gboro

mini bomber

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Guests

March 4, 2012 - 3:34 pm

This is a classic hand early in a FTOPS event. I have talked to many people about this hand, just wondering what TPE's take is on it.

Full Tilt Poker FTOPS Event #1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t15/t30 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

gboro780 (MP1): t5270 175.67 BBs
BakinC00kies (MP2): t4940 164.67 BBs
Bashermann (CO): t3990 133 BBs
mini bomberr (BTN): t4885 162.83 BBs
Nilkrokodil (SB): t4520 150.67 BBs
BluffAny2 (BB): t6190 206.33 BBs
smokingzone (UTG): t4970 165.67 BBs
22legit2quit (UTG+1): t5275 175.83 BBs
bonjovani (UTG+2): t4960 165.33 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) mini bomberr is BTN with J of spades J of clubs
3 folds, gboro780 raises to 76, 2 folds, mini bomberr raises to 210, 2 folds, gboro780 calls 134

Going to start with my 3bet here. Should I be 3betting JJ this early vs one of the best players in the world? 3bet size too small?

Flop: (t465) 7 of diamonds 8 of spades 2 of hearts (2 players)
gboro780 checks, mini bomberr bets 299, gboro780 calls 299

I have to think I'm good on this flop, right? What are you thinking when he calls here?

Turn: (t1063) 3 of hearts (2 players)
gboro780 checks, mini bomberr bets 722, gboro780 raises to 1888

????????

isaacjames

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Guests

March 5, 2012 - 5:43 pm

Ok, I'll start by saying it would be much better to hear form the Pros on this one as they play with these types of players all the time, but I'll give it a shot….

Going to start with my 3bet here. Should I be 3betting JJ this early vs one of the best players in the world? 3bet size too small?

Your raise size is fine, if he has a hand he wants to see a flop with this deep, another 60-90 chips make no difference IMO, the problem is that you might be turning your hand upside down, I personally like making this play against unknowns or regular players to take away the initiative and to better define their ranges, but against a top pro I am not sure it helps that much as he could even be flatting with AA or 23o

I have to think I'm good on this flop, right? What are you thinking when he calls here?

I would think I'm good and Bet size seems fine to me as well, his call to me indicate that he does not have a made hand most of the time he is either drawing or floating, although some of the time he will be doing this with monsters (like sets) in order to give you a chance to catch up / bet turn.

????????

TheTurn is the real deal here, Tough spot. The hardest part is of course he is basically putting you on a decision of folding or playing for your tournament life. I would probably would have folded everytime then, but more and more (especially watching bigdog's videos for example) I realize that top players know this so it is a great Bluffing opportunity if you are willing to put 1/2 of your stack in this early.

So lets look at the chances of this being a bluff:

He knows, because of your 3 bet, that it is unlikely you have any big hands since this board does not hit most people's 3bet range at all (I mean usual AJ+ TT+ or tighter range wiffs everytime). I do think he at a minimum is semibluffing more than stone cold bluffing, and the board has at least all these combos as possible drawing semibluff hands:

any 2 heart hands, A4, A5, 54, 64, T9, J9, (Although some are less likely or could be 2nd best hands as they are 4 outers of course)

There are also a bunch of combo draws:

98, 67, 1 heart paired hands

Chances of it being a made hand

On the other hand, he could have 2 pair or even a set and the fact that he is putting so much of his stack this early reduces the likelihood of a bluff somewhat, but probably not much, especially since he has zero history with you most likely. It would be important to know if you or him had played a few pots before this hand that could result on a certain image

here are the hands that are ahead of you:

77, 88, 22, 33, 78, 23, 83, 82, 73, 72 (last 4 less likely I suppose)

So if you look at it purely form the number of combos there are certainly more on the SemiBluffing and bluffing corner than on the made hands corner

Bottom line: whether he is making an outstanding Bluff or he has a hand I think you need to fold and lick your wounds this early if your tournament life is very important in an FTOPS (i.e at the Main event of the WSOP I fold everytime, but at a Daily tourney I probably shove everytime), but if it is not, and you have the nizzles to do it, Shove your Jacks, I would guess it is a +EV play.

mini bomber

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Guests

March 8, 2012 - 7:56 am

Thanks for your input, going to wait and see if anyone else has any before I post the results and my thought process.

RonFezBuddy

New York City

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March 8, 2012 - 10:26 am

I'm going to guess that gboro is not going to try to pull off an elaborate multi-street bluff against someone who is an unknown to him this early in a very +EV tournament for him. Think about the range he's putting US on. We 3 bet him. Granted it's in position but it's still going to be a strong range made up mostly of overpairs to this board. For him to put us on a non-made hand then it's just down to broadways. Way too much risk for him this early. I'm sure he's playing pretty straightforward right now and trying to exploit mistakes, not outplay everyone OOP.

If he's leveling us with this line, it's just one more example why he's considered the best but I think we can safely fold.

aaaaaaaaa

TPE Pro

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March 8, 2012 - 12:16 pm

I fold . Doubt he would try to bluff a pperceived random of a overpair. If he knows your capable of folding it becomes more interesting.

Cougars4444

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Guests

March 8, 2012 - 1:24 pm

I think we have to fold here as well. This early I really don't think he's going to run a complicated bluff but you never know and that's why he is one of the best.

FkCoolers

Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)

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March 8, 2012 - 5:58 pm

Fold pre vs. Gboro no matter what. I'm like 27% joking.

mini bomber

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March 8, 2012 - 6:43 pm

At this point in the tourney, gboro and I had about 200 hands with each other so there was a *little* information to go on. When I looked back on the hand I knew I should have folded…but I stuffabaker'd it and he peeled over 33. GG lol.

swhitelex

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Guests

March 8, 2012 - 9:49 pm

Good post and thanks pros for the insight. RonFezzBuddy actually was first in the post to say fold. Diego would be the pro and then Jace and Cougars just said the same thing. Good job Pro Diego. Ha ha. Kidding with Jace and Cougars.

Now having a bit of difficulty on this to continue the discussion for you let the result out of the bag. Ha ha. I am looking at your flop cbet. The flop is rainbow so the flush is out, the 78 hit the board which could be ranged for him.

The cbet possibly is a problem in this spot. You really can’t represent anything with a half pot cbet raise there. We cbet for a couple of reasons, 1. We cbet to get information and we cbet to invoke action or for a fold. With a solid player (I actually don’t know this guy) but wen a cbet is given after a check that small early in a tourney, it is standard to flar there. It isn’t a hard decision to call there if he has any pair.

Your information was given to you on the call due to your cbet. Now the option IMO and I am not skilled is to size the pot bigger knowing he was a good player. Your cbet in a 1/2 pot click was not strength to your range. It just gave him a standard call. I may be wrong here but to get him off the hand is two ways..maybe a pot size raise there or shove (which would be the less of two). You really got to make him pay for each street. You have position, use it.

Great start of the post but try to keep the mystery of the result for us newbies. Suspense. Thanks for posting.

SJOHN11

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Guests

March 8, 2012 - 10:06 pm

I like the 3 bet pre, it helps assign his range. I think the bet sizing is fine pre and on the flop — however, [and i know its easier now to comment knowing the result!) im not getting all my chips in the middle in this spot so deep – even if u call the turn raise to re-evaluate the river u are left with 90 BBs.

Tiny_Molester

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Guests

March 8, 2012 - 11:53 pm

I think it is more interesting to discuss the 2nd bet in this hand, why would you bet twice here against steve with this particular hand? Do you think you have the dynamic where he will pay 3 with worse? I think by checking the turn we can open our percieved range up for some profitable river spots.

I know our tendency is to bet/bet/bet when we think we have the best hand, but I do not think having the best hand vs range is a good reason to bet. We need to explore the manipulation of HIS range via the lens of our bets, I personally think against steve the 2nd bet might be negative EV even though our hand is ahead of his range on the turn.

For example if we dissect his range (or rather my own simplistic interpretation of it) into something like

-70% made hands we beat but more then likely fold to 2barrels here (by nature of nlhe, these hands have very little equity vs us)

-15% made hands that beat us which will probably find it hard to bluff off with 2 barrels with our percieved range

-15% of hands that were either floats OoP with some form of equity which probably fold those > 75% of the time

mini bomber

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March 9, 2012 - 6:56 am

I only posted the results because days went by without any posts :p I don't know why I bet the turn. In my defense, it was Superbowl Sunday lol. Also, my skill level has improved a LOT since then. Oh well, gg wp.

isaacjames

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Guests

March 9, 2012 - 8:28 am

this was a great hand to post mini. a few more comments (all IMHO):

The cbet possibly is a problem in this spot. You really can't represent anything with a half pot cbet raise there. We cbet for a couple of reasons, 1. We cbet to get information and we cbet to invoke action or for a fold. With a solid player (I actually don't know this guy) but wen a cbet is given after a check that small early in a tourney, it is standard to flar there. It isn't a hard decision to call there if he has any pair.

I disagree with this, we are being results oriented here. we are betting for value with our overpair, checking releases the initiative, and a portion of the time we make hands with A,K,Q fold that can beat us later on. If the 3 doesn't peel off on the turn we made more money from Gboro than if we were to check and he wiffs.

I think it is more interesting to discuss the 2nd bet in this hand, why would you bet twice here against steve with this particular hand? Do you think you have the dynamic where he will pay 3 with worse? I think by checking the turn we can open our percieved range up for some profitable river spots.

I see the point here, if the plan is to control pot by check calling allowing him to bluff worst hands, but we need to be ready to call another bet on most rivers. The reason I see to bet here is again to charge for draws which IMO are very much in his range.

Anyway interesting hand laugh