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PokerStars Game #43858193820: Tournament #2010050202, $200+$15 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level VIII (125/250) – 2010/05/09 19:48:18 ET
Table ‘2010050202 767’ 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Ahen0910 (7592 in chips)
Seat 2: jbh0711 (7398 in chips)
Seat 3: TOOGER12 (19058 in chips)
Seat 4: LoneLeopard (25007 in chips)
Seat 5: *SAHUJ* (9870 in chips)
Seat 6: Radje (26978 in chips)
Seat 7: IveGotToejam (19822 in chips)
Seat 8: sch@@pherder (14715 in chips)
Seat 9: South_AAusie (23645 in chips)
Ahen0910: posts the ante 30
jbh0711: posts the ante 30
TOOGER12: posts the ante 30
LoneLeopard: posts the ante 30
*SAHUJ*: posts the ante 30
Radje: posts the ante 30
IveGotToejam: posts the ante 30
sch@@pherder: posts the ante 30
South_AAusie: posts the ante 30
LoneLeopard: posts small blind 125
*SAHUJ*: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IveGotToejam [Qc Qh]
Radje: raises 250 to 500
IveGotToejam: calls 500
sch@@pherder: folds
South_AAusie: folds
Ahen0910: folds
jbh0711: folds
TOOGER12: folds
LoneLeopard: raises 1000 to 1500
*SAHUJ*: folds
Radje: raises 25448 to 26948 and is all-in
IveGotToejam: ????
without any reads I think it’s a fold, I assume he is way above chip average given that he is 100BB+ deep, don’t see how he is putting himself on the line with TT-JJ due to his stack, also i’ve seen that minraise UTG its alway AA or KK. 90% of the time he is showing up AA, KK or AK here. That range give us 39.86% equity. Making it a fold.
But if he has been playing pretty loose or fishy or you have been very aggresive or 3 betting him lightly it could be a profitable call, but like i’ve said without reads its a fold.
i just don’t see a good option with stacks and our position.
also, considering how well this tourney is structured, and how soft it is, i don’t see much merit in putting more chips in the pot against what are becoming narrower and narrower ranges, when people just aren’t as likely to be showing up with JJ/AQ.
i’d fold and actually feel pretty good about it.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
Hagbard Celine said:
i’d fold and actually feel pretty good about it.
Yeah I think this is one of those spots where thinking players will separate themselves from the rest who just see QQ and insta-ship. Given the actions to date, I can’t see how much positive equity QQ has here, if at all and given the structure (as mentioned above), it seems like a very unnecessary gamble.
does AA really jam 100bbs like this? I’m not claiming to know how to properly range this guy, but if we discount AA a bit then this comes dangerously close to a call vs. JJ+/AK. Obviously it is less so if JJ is out.
Board: Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.122% 49.37% 01.75% 26205590 930479.00 { QcQh }Hand 1: 48.878% 47.13% 01.75% 25014876 930479.00 { AcAd, AcAs, AdAh, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KdKh, KdKs, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.683% 27.80% 03.88% 6188030 864581.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 68.317% 64.43% 03.88% 14342760 864581.00 { AcAd, AcAs, AdAh, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KdKh, KdKs, QQ, AKs }
and look at all that money in there.
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