September 8, 2016
Dear TPE members,
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2 Buy-in (3,000/6,000 blinds, 600 ante) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37928968
Hero (SB): 8,400 (1.4 bb)
BB: 2,400 (0.4 bb)
UTG+1: 3,100 (0.5 bb)
UTG+2: 46,400 (7.7 bb)
MP1: 41,338 (6.9 bb)
MP2: 37,788 (6.3 bb)
MP3: 3,100 (0.5 bb)
CO: 36,412 (6.1 bb)
BTN: 27,340 (4.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 6 4
2 folds, MP1 raises to 12,000, 4 folds, Hero ?????
The following hands takes place in the 1R splash 5 minutes before we would be able to add-on. I am being offered pot odds of a little over 5 to 1 or to be more exact, in which 21% equity is needed. After assigning a 20% range to the initial opener and 100% range to the big blind, my equity in the particular hand is 23%.
After looking at this spot, my assumption is that the 2% gain in equity compared to pot odds is not worth the risk. By risk, I mean the need to rebuy at least one more time and most likely more.
Does anyone have an estimate of how large the gap between odds and equity in the hands needs to be in order for this to be a call? What are other considerations I have to look for in this example?
Any thoughts or help would be much appreciated!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
What you need to do to solve this is get at least a rough estimate of what a chip in this tournament will be worth AFTER the big add-on. That will be equal to (chips in play)/(size of prizepool). Then you can put a price on what this pot is worth to you relative to what taking the add-on will be worth.
You also have to factor in your odds of surviving to the add-on if you fold.
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