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(0 votes) 
April 23, 2014
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Looking for some feedback and opinion on this spot:
Full Flush Online
$30 – 10 Handed SnG
$150 1st Place
$90 2nd Place
$60 3rd Place
Blinds
200/400
Stacks
Villian ~4600 11.5 BB
Hero ~4200 10.5 BB
SB ~1200 3 BB
BB ~2000 5 BB
Villain and I had been beating up the 2 other players pretty well on the bubble. It was pretty even when we started 4 way. No doubt SB and BB were trying to squeek into money.
Villain had been Open shoving often for last 10 hands or so when CO or Button. At the time I had him at a huge range abusing the small stacks. After the fact I narrowed it down to about 28%, while looking at ICMizer and reviewing a chart. That is a total estimate.
In the cutoff villain open shoves for 4600. I on the button have AQs.
SB at 3BB has put 200 in the pot, and BB at 5 BB has 400 in.
What is the correct play here? I have since ICMizer'd it and I was very surprised. I want opinion before I give results of hand and ICM calcs.
btw, I did the exact wrong thing I guess.
Thanks for input. This was a tricky spot for me, I guess it shouldn't have been.
TheDukeVA
February 20, 2015
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I think you have to fold. It's unfortunate that you're to the villain's left, but it is what it is. The one saving grace is if one of the blinds calls and you both bust out that you would end up in 3rd, but that rarely happens.
March 9, 2014
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Fold. Blinds are too short, this is icm suicide if you call I guess.
April 23, 2014
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Yea, I guess it should have been obvious to me, but I thought “I have this guys range crushed, great spot” and that turned out to be a terrible decision. Regardless of the outcome.
So after the tournament I plugged the info into ICMizer and was stunned when ICMizer displayed the result
“Should have folded dumb ass”
Well it didn't actually say that but it might as well have.
SO what it did say was that it was only a profitable ICM call with AA & KK. Seriously that blew me away. Fold QQ. Fold AKs. I shouldn't ask if that makes sense, because it is math, but that is very surprising.
THEN, I changed villains range from 28% to 100%, any two cards, and the only Profitable ICM calling hands for hero are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT.
Is anybody here folding QQ, or AKs in this spot, with his range estimated at 28% open shove???
Am I missing something here?
Thanks,
TheDukeVA
April 26, 2013
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Yeah I think this is what seperates the normal and good players from the true pros. I would have called AKo, JJ+ for sure. Probably fold AQo, but AQs… I doubt it. Thanks for the reminder!
I don't think you're missing anything here, this is just how math sometimes blows your mind. If you want that to happen to you even away from the poker table, check out https://www.youtube.com/user/numberphile
April 23, 2014
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The funny thing is if Villain flips over KT (which was a very real possibility) and my AQ holds, I never even think about it. Don't give it a second thought. Even though in reality it is huge Negative $EV.
Intrestingly pure cEV easy call.
TheDuke
March 9, 2014
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I am sure he shoves 100% of range here, if he is solid. But I am not prepared to risk my money here. I call here with JJ+ rather than AQ+ because here he usually has maximum 3-outer, with AQ he can have so many different combos that he usually has 6-outs. Silly to fold such strong hand but thats they way it is.
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