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April 6, 2013
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Villain was playing 21/13/3, had never limped, and was opening for 3X each time they raised preflop. I had seen them check-fold a flop as ir, raise a flop bet and take it down, and continuation bet and take it down. Hadn't seen them check-call yet in 30ish hands. I assume villain is a weak/inexperienced player because of all their sizings.
Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t125/t250 Blinds + t25 – 9 players – View hand 2401691
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
SB: BB = 35.7, t8925
BB: BB = 41.8, t10450
UTG: BB = 26.7, t6672
UTG+1: BB = 64.9, t16235
UTG+2: BB = 47.1, t11775
MP1: BB = 50.0, t12504
MP2: BB = 95.2, t23799
CO: BB = 55.3, t13829
Hero (BTN): BB = 86.4, t21593
Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is BTN with T
T
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t750, 3 folds, Hero calls t750, 2 folds
Flop: (t2100) J
6 2 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t1234, UTG+2 calls t1234
Turn: (t4568) 3 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t2345, UTG+2 calls t2345
River: (t9258) 6 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero ? (7421 behind)
Underbet? Shove? Check back?
July 4, 2013
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For me this is simply a spot to check back. I just don’t see any reason to stick in a bet on the river as most of what he calls with will has us beat and under betting gives him the opportunity to blast us off the pot with a busted flush draw. Only scenario that we can hope to draw value from is 77-99. We have plenty of showdown value and he has plenty of Jx type hands in his range that beat us. Check it down and scoop the pot.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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This is an interesting spot. I think without a decent read I would simply check back. But against some villains you could bet here for decent value as they never have you beat. Thin value in readless spots is something I try to avoid.
I am a fan of your sizing on all streets though.
If I were going thin here I would bet like 3.5k
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July 4, 2013
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In response to CCuster:
I agree that there are some villains here in which you can extract value. I just can’t see what hands other than 77-99 that call off 1/2 their stack leaving 13BBs. IMO at this point the villain cant call with anything that we beat EXCEPT 77-99 and that’s a very small portion of his range.
I’m not disagreeing with you just wondering what other part of the villains range will call off half of his remaining stack that we are ahead of?
June 24, 2012
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Has he seen you bluffing much or betting a lot when facing a missed c-bet or is there any history to suggest that you might bluff mulitple streets? If not then I think you can value bet.
I think you are ahead of his range so why not try get that little be extra out of him if you can. Its likely his range is something like JJ-77 and 55. I don’t think he plays a FD like this, you’d expect a cbet if he did have it, and its highly unlikely that he checks shoves a FD on river if he did have one given that he played it passively so far. QQ prob c-bets, KK-AA if he did check these hands on the flop you’d expect a raise from him on the turn when you bet. A weak Jack maybe but how many weak Js does he have raising UTG+2. He could have a strong jack but it would be usual to play it this way.
So I think overall its worth a small bet between 3k-3.5k and remember you don’t always have to be 100% sure that your ahead to value bet thin. I think your ahead here enough to warrant it.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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“In response to CCuster:
I agree that there are some villains here in which you can extract value. I just can’t see what hands other than 77-99 that call off 1/2 their stack leaving 13BBs. IMO at this point the villain cant call with anything that we beat EXCEPT 77-99 and that’s a very small portion of his range.
I’m not disagreeing with you just wondering what other part of the villains range will call off half of his remaining stack that we are ahead of?
“
How many hands do you think villain plays this way that we are behind? Please take note that he is fairly tight, and people like that dont have many 6s, and dont check many better hands on flop. Sure a % of his range are FDs that will just fold on river, but there are, for some villains, practically zero hands we are behind on this river. Some people just dont get creative an check better hands then us.
I am not saying this is one of the villains I am just saying there are def villains where this should be an insta v bet.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Agree with Cody that the villain very rarely has a better hand than TT here. Only question is whether the times he does somehow have a better hand outweigh the times he calls a river bet with worse, and I think they do. I think I just check back versus most villains, because I think they’re pretty likely to just fold with most of the hands we beat and call with most of the hands that beat us.
September 29, 2012
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This is definitely a spot where I check back alot. Honestly, I think the only hands that are ahead might be some JX hands that was trying to get to show down. The way the villain played the hand something like QJ/JT. But just becuase we are likely to have the best hand here, does not automatically mean it is a good spot to bet. The big question is whether this villain has other show down value hands in his range he will call 3 street of value? Will he call with 77 – 99? Maybe only if our image is such that he expects us to three barrel with air.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Thin value in readless spots is something I try to avoid.
I need to tape this up next to my monitor.
The problem here, as others have said, is that the range we’re targeting is so narrow. It amounts to 18 combos that we aren’t certain will call a bet anyway. It wouldn’t take much for Villain to show up with that many combos of hands we’re behind, and while it’s true that our reads so far suggest he wouldn’t, a sample size of 30 hands really isn’t enough to conclude that he couldn’t have 76 or 65 or A6 or JJ or AJ or AA. There are enough combos of hands we’re worried about that even a small risk of him playing them this way may be enough to turn this into a check.
Like, if we’re targeting 18 hands and think there’s a 66% chance he’ll call with those hands, then that’s functionally 12 combos. If there were 100 combos of the hands I mentioned above (there aren’t, I’m being arbitrary), then it would take just a 12% chance of our read being a little off to turn this into a losing play (in the Sunday Million, a breakeven river bet is a losing play). Metarationality FTW.
April 6, 2013
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Thank you everyone who commented!
“Thin value in readless spots is something I try to avoid.” I am going to have this on my electronic post-it note app next to my SM table this week 😀
I agree with checking back at the moment as being better than betting small. I think shoving is out of the question as a good play. As it happens, shoving did not turn out well, as I was drawing dead every street postflop 😮
I think this is a part of my game where there are actually substantial leaks, especially in tournaments. I can remember years ago at the WSOP two or three spots where I probably made a mistake not dissimilar to this and I bet you I make one of a similar nature every week online. That is, to go for thin value without a sufficiently strong read, or with no substantial read at all.
As a cash game player who also has played a lot of cash live I constantly push myself to make thin value bets and raises and I scold myself when I don’t. I don’t think this has been particularly useful for my tournament river game. Thanks again everyone, I hope to make lots of money as a result of this thread!
June 1, 2012
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I think this is a extremely easy check back even on the turn. Peoples check/calling as the PFR in my experience is pretty strong or its hands like with overcards like AQ, and AK, which you are never getting value from. Your at the middle of your range have substantial showdown value so i think TTs here should go into your turn checking back range.
June 24, 2012
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Thin value in readless spots is something I try to avoid.
I need to tape this up next to my monitor.
The problem here, as others have said, is that the range we’re targeting is so narrow. It amounts to 18 combos that we aren’t certain will call a bet anyway. It wouldn’t take much for Villain to show up with that many combos of hands we’re behind, and while it’s true that our reads so far suggest he wouldn’t, a sample size of 30 hands really isn’t enough to conclude that he couldn’t have 76 or 65 or A6 or JJ or AJ or AA. There are enough combos of hands we’re worried about that even a small risk of him playing them this way may be enough to turn this into a check.
Like, if we’re targeting 18 hands and think there’s a 66% chance he’ll call with those hands, then that’s functionally 12 combos. If there were 100 combos of the hands I mentioned above (there aren’t, I’m being arbitrary), then it would take just a 12% chance of our read being a little off to turn this into a losing play (in the Sunday Million, a breakeven river bet is a losing play). Metarationality FTW.
In reality its about 40 combos with a range of 56s,67s,A6s,JJ, AJoAJs,AA. I don’t think he is raising the off suit connectors or A6o UTG+2. By the time it gets to the river these combos have been reduced like some of the 6s will have folded and also prob the 55s. So we probably have double the combos of hands that beat us to the hands that we beat. Is this good enough to value bet?
Also I mean what range are you actually putting him on, I mean really? How many times will he have AAs here, how many AJ does he play this way, how many 6s does he raise preflop and still be there by the river?
Also the second 6 on the river makes it more likely that he will call a bet on the river with hands from 77-TT. I think there is enough in the way he played the hand to be able to value bet without a solid read.
EDIT: The first two paragraphs are suppose to be quoting Foucault for some reason the “quote and reply” is not working.
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