TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Close but I fold pre-flop. Even against an aggro 3-better, I doubt your equity is that good, and it’s a pretty large 3-bet. I certainly fold flop, and I don’t think your plan is likely to be a profitable one. For one thing, it’s going to result in you folding very frequently on the turn, and even when you do stick it in, I don’t think your equity will be that great.
As played, I think a modest bluff designed to get V off of Ace-high is in order, something like 6K.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Yeah, I agree with Andrew here. If you’re specifically check-calling flop to bluff river then that’s maybe a slightly better plan, but check-shoving turn is kind of suicidal since you’re not going to have much equity at all on many turn cards versus villain’s two-barrelling range. I can’t think of many good hands to 2-barrel and fold on this board – your J probably blocks most of them, and since villain is in position preflop they likely don’t 3-bet much JT or QJ type stuff.
The turn is only going to come a club or J ~25% of the time, and I see very few instances in which villain would barrel twice on those cards and fold to a check-shove. You’re not even in fantastic shape against his two-barrelling range when you turn a K, considering he might not often bet TT-QQ for value on that turn.
Generally I think calling preflop is marginal at best (at this stack size it’s probably best to defend your opening range by 4-bet shoving a little more and rarely flat-calling OOP), and I think your postflop plan is not a great one. However, I don’t mind a river bluff at this point despite the fact you rep very little (T9s? 98s? I imagine you 4-bet shove 88-99 pre and potentially fold 66, so…), since K high is fairly close to the bottom of your range and villain fairly transparently doesn’t have many hands in his range better than A high at this point.
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