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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Simple call/fold spot late in 3r

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Simple call/fold spot late in 3r

Lance Freeman

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July 14, 2010 - 6:58 pm

I have a pretty aggro image and considered folding but figured if i was raising that hand i couldnt fold to that guy w/ my image and stack

Poker Stars $3.00 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t8000/t16000 Blinds + t1600 – 9 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge

clanjast (BB): BB = 13.1, t210232
yellowandblu (UTG): BB = 7.8, t124743
Jackheres (UTG+1): BB = 8.4, t134622
Freeman2008 (UTG+2): BB = 30.9, t494453
ZMA_sleep (MP1): BB = 17.3, t276279
qnetkoff (MP2): BB = 14.1, t226154
LUIS ALAN (CO): BB = 17.9, t286852
Godliker_ (BTN): BB = 9.5, t151625
maxwell_8888 (SB): BB = 32.0, t511846

Pre Flop: (t38400) Freeman2008 is UTG+2 with Q[Image Can Not Be Found] K[Image Can Not Be Found]
2 folds, Freeman2008 raises to t32950, 5 folds, clanjast raises to t208632 all in, Freeman2008 calls t175682

Flop: (t439664) 4[Image Can Not Be Found] 7[Image Can Not Be Found] 9[Image Can Not Be Found] (2 players – 1 is all in)

Turn: (t439664) 9[Image Can Not Be Found] (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: (t439664) 3[Image Can Not Be Found] (2 players – 1 is all in)

RonFezBuddy

New York City

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July 14, 2010 - 8:57 pm

You’re putting in 40% of the chips for the total pot if you call. I put him on a relatively tight range. Seems like you aren’t getting the odds here.

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 30.653% 28.76% 01.90% 354517896 23392830.00 { KQo }

Hand 1: 69.347% 67.45% 01.90% 831555324 23392830.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

If we widen his range a bit it still seems like a fold:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 36.219% 31.66% 04.56% 657035808 94629102.00 { KQo }

Hand 1: 63.781% 59.22% 04.56% 1229018436 94629102.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

Even with your image I don’t think he jams much looser but it really depends on what we think he’s doing here.

FkCoolers

Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)

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July 15, 2010 - 11:27 am

If Hero is perceived as being LAG I think the range is even wider than this:

If we widen his range a bit it still seems like a fold:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 36.219% 31.66% 04.56% 657035808 94629102.00 { KQo }

Hand 1: 63.781% 59.22% 04.56% 1229018436 94629102.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

It’s probably more like:

22+, A7s+, A9+, KTs+, KQo

Unsure how much this changes the percentages.

Seems like marginal spot here. If we flip and lose we still have 17 bigs. I lean toward calling.

RonFezBuddy

New York City

TPE Management

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July 15, 2010 - 2:12 pm

The range above would be pretty much breakeven:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 40.058% 37.10% 02.95% 1273180620 101394654.00 { KQo }

Hand 1: 59.942% 56.99% 02.95% 1955487288 101394654.00 { 22+, A7s+, KTs+, A9o+, KQo }

I have a hard time believing a guy is going to jam over a relatively EP opener with something like KTs, or 33 though. So given the breakeveness of this range I would lean more conservative for that assumption.

Hagbard Celine

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July 15, 2010 - 11:31 pm

you need ~38% against villains range to breakeven here, and even against a range that i believe is far too loose lik 66+, A9s+, KQs, QJs, JTs, ATo+ you only have 37%.

fold.

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