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Silly bubble spot - ok to call off here with (KT) on the BB
derSchwartz
Sunday Major
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July 1, 2014 - 3:49 pm
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Hello TPE friends,

I realize that bubble aggression means opening more pots, stealing more, not being afraid of being the bubble and trying to maintain a decent stack so a deep run and top 3 finish is as likely as possible.

My main quesiton is – in a turbo drawn out bubble situation, when we are short stacked BB-wise but average or even above average compared to other players, is it still good to call our whole stack preflop if we correctly put an all in player on a range so wide it could be ATC, we dominate their range and estimate it to be +EV? 

Here is my example hand from a $10 turbo 6max where 1st took $400, 40th doubled up, and 41 players were sticking around for a ridiculous amount of time. 

Nearing the bubble the stacks at my table looked like this:

clambaby (UTG): BB = 9.3, t7478
Pok3rStud12 (CO): BB = 27.0, t21627
sfish513 (BTN): BB = 5.1, t4100
Hero (SB): BB = 15.3, t12252
meximex (BB): BB = 16.8, t13430

Then admittedly I missed a spot or two, and lost a C-bet in a hand that I probably should have shoved preflop. But I also went very card dead for several orbits, any mediocre holdings seeing significant action in front.  This being turbo, my stack dwindled, but about 7 players had less than 3BB at 1000 blinds while I had 9BB. A handful of short stack all ins commenced all resulting in double or triple ups and at one point one player literally folded his 1200 big blind to a raise, leaving himself 300 chips behind, and like septupled up on his automatic all-in SB.

Then this hand happened:

Merge Network Night Owl $11 – $1.5K Gtd [6-Max, Turbo] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t/t1200.00 Blinds + t120.00 – 5 players – View hand 2530368
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

clambaby (CO): BB = 26.5, t31752
Pok3rStud12 (BTN): BB = 5.1, t6173
sfish513 (SB): BB = 0.4, t460
Hero (BB): BB = 4.6, t5462
meximex (UTG): BB = 12.5, t15040

Pre Flop: (t1800) Hero is BB with T of diamonds K of hearts
sfish513 bets t340 all in, 2 folds, Pok3rStud12 raises to t6053 all in, Hero calls t4142 all in

I'm pretty sure it's a +EV call but I just want to make sure this particularly drawn out bubble situation doesn't warrant a fold.  In this hand, yet another player who is playing to min cash is all in on his SB after folding most of his stack on the BB, and the opening Villain,  Pok3rstud12, is as short stacked as me, super aggro, playing 44/38 after n=54, open limping 0%, 3betting 12.5% open stealing 69% and folding to resteal 100%.

When he opens here as he has been, I put him on almost ATC, weighted towards middle cards that I dominate.  If this is true, the information I currently stand by suggests I should call.  I figure I should not worry about the bubble at all here because in order for me to be the bubble, not only do I have to lose to Pok3rStud12, Pok3rstud12 also has to lose to sfish513.  Also I need to gain some chips if I'm going to run deep and this was the best spot I had in a long time.

Was this a good call because if my read is correct I am likely to more than double up and be in much better shape? 

Or is KT simply too shady of a hand to be calling off stacks with when people are playing to mincash all around and we can still be open pushing with fold equity?

Thanks for reading.

CCuster 911
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July 2, 2014 - 6:41 pm
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I call here,.

 

I also dont put too much merit/thought into bubble spot ICM.  When playing a tourney schedule with great BR management then a min cash should neveer be make or break.  I understnad in spots where you satteid into a big tourney or may be taking a shot it may come into play.

 

If thats the case then the number of tables would be a consideration for me.  If it was a lot of tables and 1 away from money, theres a good chance that your table isnt the only one with someone at risk, so even if you call in a spot like this and you shorty wins and you get third, you may still be in with a cash.

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

markconkle
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July 3, 2014 - 10:28 am
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I'd like to start by taking some time to dispute what CCuster (and many other pros) like to say about min-cashes.  Specifically, I take great issue with this statement “a min cash should neveer be make or break.”  While it is true that a min-cash is not the reason you are playing, and your equity that comes from first place is very significant even when you are a small stack.  However, the difference between $22 and $0 is a relevant prize difference that should effect your decision, just like any other monetary difference in poker.  To say “a min cash should neveer be make or break” is like saying, “You shouldn't play differently if the antes are 10% or 12%,” or “9-handed and 8-handed tables are identical.”  Of course, these differences are SMALL, but they are not MEANINGLESS, and ANY difference in situation can become make or break for specific (borderline) hands.  

 

To make an extreme example:

 

41 players remain, 40 paid – average stack in the tourney is 100BB, but your table is looking pretty strange . . . 

Player 1: 700BB

Player 2: 1BB

Player 3: 1BB

Player 4: 1BB

Player 5: 1BB

Player 6 (Hero, Button): 1BB

Player 7 (SB): 1BB

Player 8 (BB): 1BB, allin

 

Player 1 open shoves.  In this situation, you have about 10% of a starting stack, and by auto-folding, you almost guarantee to make money as at least 6 players have to survive allin before your big blind.  If a min-cash is worth about 200% of a starting stack, I would not think twice before folding KK in this spot.  With AA I would think and then fold.  The value of the chips you can win is just so small compared to the value of the min-cash.

 

Back to the hand in question.

The important thing here is that you have to have to take third and have SB win to bubble.  And if SB wins and you fold, you could still end up bubbling later.  There are 6 outcomes:

 

1st, 2nd, 3rd

BUT, SB, BB – you bust 40th – ok

BUT, BB, SB – you bust 40th – ok

SB, BUT, BB – you bust 41st unless another player with a shorter stack loses at the same time

SB, BB, BUT – you make chips

BB, SB, BUT – you make chips

BB, BUT, SB – you make chips

 

The chances of these different outcomes, of course, depending on button's range, but even giving button any two cards, he's only about 29% to win the pot, so your chances of busting are capped under 20%.  In these types of situations, I sometimes compare monetary EV to the number of chips that money would have bought at the beginning of the tournament.  I understand this method is very flawed, as the value of chips depends on many things, but it's at least a starting point.  

I am American, so not familiar with Pokerstarts structures, but I'm guessing a turbo starts with 1500 chips.  If you fold, you are likely to cash, but not guaranteed (and you may have to pass up some +EV shoves in the next hand or two).  A min-cash vs. bubble is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 3000 chips.  You bubbling 20% of the time is a loss of somewhere in the neighborhood of 600 chips.  

There are a lot of assumptions here, so you can't use that as a hard number, but if, say, you thought your chip EV was +100 here, I would definitely fold.  If you thought your chip EV was 1000 I would definitely call.  In this case, I think BB's range should be extremely wide, and I think it's absolutely a call.

CCuster 911
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July 4, 2014 - 1:16 am
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I never said it was meaningless.  I just said personally I dont put too much faith in it, unless I am playing a decent sized live tourney.

 

I fall under the practice of following two rules:

 

1.  If a cash is valuable or important to me I risk my stack whenver I would feel ok with losing.

2.  If not I just play +cEV, with maybe dropping a hand combo every now and then

 

That said part of my strategy is too avoid risking very large stacks in marginal spots near bubble but this is controled by sizing and flatting in spots I may put in more bets in non itm bubble.

 

You are completely right in the fact that there are cases where ICM changes your range.  I def dont think this is one of them though.  I think bubble ICM should be most considered about how it will affect you if you lose.  If its marginal and you losing will cuase you to beat yourself up over it, then by all means fold.

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

markconkle
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July 7, 2014 - 9:27 pm
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Maybe it's a mis-understanding, but to me “should neveer be make or break” means that it should never be the difference between a shove and a fold.  In that case, it would in fact be meaningless.

 

Assuming you just mean it's never more important than the two cards in your hand, then absolutely that's true.

theginger45

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July 14, 2014 - 7:56 pm
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I'm gonna try to bridge these two approaches here. I think the reason why bubble spots matter less in a lower stakes tournament is quite simple – that it's often much, much easier to recover $22 of equity by calling in a spot like this and giving yourself more chips to play with in a soft tournament, than it is to recover, say, $222 of equity in a higher-stakes tournament against a tougher field.

 

The fact is, as much as we like to talk about EV in poker, real money does matter, and a $222 cash is much more worth playing for than a $22 cash. If we feel that the $22 can be recovered and then some later on the occasions that we don't bust, or that we can replace that low-stakes tournament with one of greater EV once we bust and free up table space, there's an argument for calling wider in lower stakes games.

 

Plus, as Cody said, number of tables is a consideration, and the lower the stakes, the larger the field usually is.

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