Set up… This guy was really bad, had open shoved 26K into my JJ the previous level and sucked out…. Had hideiously also raised/flatted 1/8 of his stack with J10s and flushed up to well over 100K, then donked back down to where he is when this hand started. I am 9th in chips, 20 left, and right at average. If I call and win, I am chip leader with 19 left.
Full Tilt Poker $3 $0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1000/t2000 Blinds + t250 – 5 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge
shadylady13 (BTN): BB = 51.8, t103663
Capitolio_tilt (SB): BB = 31.0, t62060
Godbersen (BB): BB = 43.9, t87882
lainie1072 (UTG): BB = 30.5, t60955
brunopie (CO): BB = 34.1, t68247
Pre Flop: (t4250) lainie1072 is UTG with T T
lainie1072 raises to t4125, 2 folds, Capitolio_tilt raises to t61810 all in, 1 fold
What I am thinking: The only hands that beat me that he plays this way (even for a donkey) are JJ and maybe QQ. AA or KK he would flat or 3 bet, but for arguments sake, we can keep them in his range.
I think he DOES play KJ+ this way, I think he plays A9+ this way, and I think he plays 22-99 this way. This play smells of AQ and AK personally,
1. What is your personal play here?
2. If your play is call, at what stack sizes do you fold? If you fold here, at what stack sizes are you calling?
3. How does the price of being eliminated weigh into my decision?
4. How does the upside of having 60 BBs and having the chip lead, which I can use to my advantage, weigh in?
If I go with my range as stated above, here is what my equity puts me at 59%, and that includes AA and KK, which I really do not put in his hands. But at what cost to elimination?
1. What is your personal play here?
with your read and assumptions it's a call. you only need 45% against his range to breakeven and with the range you posted you have ~60%.
on top of that, given your read, i personally think his range is wider
than the one you posted. for example, if he's shoving A9o then i can't
imagine he's not shoving tons of suited aces and suited broadways and
that your equity could be as high as 65%
2. If your play is call, at what stack sizes do you fold? If you fold here, at what stack sizes are you calling?
i'm not exactly sure, but i'd imagine that effective stacks would have to
be something like 40BB or bigger for us to not be getting the right
price to call against that range.
tbh though this question doesn't really matter because at that stack depth i highly
doubt he's shoving over making a regular-sized 3bet. in fact, i think
that shoving 30BB is on the high side.
3. How does the price of being eliminated weigh into my decision?
not at all.
4. How does the upside of having 60 BBs and having the chip lead, which I can use to my advantage, weigh in?
it's just icing on the cake that is a profitable spot.
I call. I cannot imagine not getting it in here against someone who is playing like this. He will shove again and again. You have a good hand and if (prob when) you win you will be a big boss man in the tourney.
Probadly cant fold to this guy as you describe him with any stack.
no prob getting eliminated. all those chips are just too good to have.
60 BBs this late is great. the blinds will still be going up soon.
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