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Shoving 72s in sb
7king
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January 18, 2016 - 6:59 pm
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How do you guys feel about this shove? I’m not too unhappy with it myself after reviewing it a little bit.

It’s from a 16.50 turbo 20K gtd on stars, mid stage. I have 14 hands on the bb, and he has 0 vpip.

Foucault

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January 18, 2016 - 7:49 pm
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It’s definitely not an equilibrium shove. What reason did you have to think BB would over-fold? I don’t think a VPIP 0 over 14 hands is sufficient to justify such a significant deviation from the default play. You should be able to evaluate this for yourself by testing out your equity against a couple of different calling ranges.

7king
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January 19, 2016 - 4:54 am
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SnG Wizard suggests shoving 100%. He needs to call 35% to make it a fold. I don’t think he’s calling that wide. I know I wouldn’t.

Holdemresources suggests: 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J8o+ T4s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+ 43s

 

So it’s a fold, but is it a small or an enormous mistake?

Foucault

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January 19, 2016 - 12:13 pm
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Wow, that’s a bit surprising to me, thanks for sharing those results. If it’s that close at equilibrium, then if you think V won’t call optimally (a reasonable assumption), it may well be a good shove. The way I know it’s close is that 74s is the break-even point (according to HRC), and 72s is barely worse than that.

7king
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January 19, 2016 - 2:01 pm
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Thanks for commenting. These were my thought as well.

I can add that the villain tanked a while before calling with KJs, so I think I can be fairly sure that he’s not calling wide enough…

folding_aces_pre_yo
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January 20, 2016 - 12:56 pm
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Lol @ V tanking with KJs 😀

 

doubtful he’s calling with 35%.

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