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TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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It’s definitely not an equilibrium shove. What reason did you have to think BB would over-fold? I don’t think a VPIP 0 over 14 hands is sufficient to justify such a significant deviation from the default play. You should be able to evaluate this for yourself by testing out your equity against a couple of different calling ranges.
August 21, 2015
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SnG Wizard suggests shoving 100%. He needs to call 35% to make it a fold. I don’t think he’s calling that wide. I know I wouldn’t.
Holdemresources suggests: 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J8o+ T4s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+ 43s
So it’s a fold, but is it a small or an enormous mistake?
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TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Wow, that’s a bit surprising to me, thanks for sharing those results. If it’s that close at equilibrium, then if you think V won’t call optimally (a reasonable assumption), it may well be a good shove. The way I know it’s close is that 74s is the break-even point (according to HRC), and 72s is barely worse than that.
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