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Shove pre or raise call off?
ceagles10
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July 25, 2015 - 3:25 pm
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Hey TPE new member here. 

 

$27 KO 3k GTD, 12 left blinds 600/1200 120ante

 

Folds to me in the CO I have 24bbs and get dealt 55. BTN has 20bbs, SB has 47bbs and BB has 22bbs.

 

I open for 2580, BTN folds, SB flats and BB 3bet shoves. I decide to fold after some thought and so does the SB. 

 

Is there a better line to take here? I feel like shoving 24bbs pre is too much. Should I be raise calling it of here. The BB was a solid player so I think they can be squeezing with a wide range. From what I seen from this player I think his range could be all the pairs, A4s, A5s, A10+ and alot of the broadway combos. I don't think I am ever folding 77+ here for pairs so is there that much of a difference with 55 in this spot?

 

I spoke with a friend last night for almost 45mins about this hand. Looking for some additional thoughts and feedback. 

 

thanks 

 

ceagles10

smallcat66
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July 26, 2015 - 9:39 am
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Shove Pre or raise call off?     Neither for me.

24bbs is too much to shove and 55 is too weak of a hand to call off if you raise.

I would either fold pre or raise fold.

Would anyone limp?

jacobsharktank
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July 26, 2015 - 9:48 pm
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I think I'd rather fold pre now that it's been pointed out. I don't know if I'd do it in game but I hope I do now. This spot just begs for high variance/unsure spots. I wouldn't want to limp here because if we get it checked through, it's really hard to have equity on boards where the villain continues, whereas with other hands we can bet with equity. So that means' r/f or just fold. It feels nitty but idk, open shoving probably generates a tiny amount of profit nash-wise, and then tighten up the ranges a bit and it's probably a little more than tiny amount but still has a bust out rate that seems pretty high..also adding 2bb to our stack doesn't really do much relative to where we sit.

joelshitshow
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July 26, 2015 - 10:15 pm
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This really sounds familiar. I don't know whether I saw a video here recently on this or what.

 

If a player will 3-bet shove, it won't matter whether you raise or limp. But if you raise there is a chance everyone will fold. It's the reason for opening in the first place. 24BB is an awkward stack, but invariably blinds are going up soon, and unless the table has been very active (or more specifically these 3 players behind you), you have to try to pick up the blinds. The big dogs aren't the worst hand to do it with.

 

Unless it's an active table, you can't be afraid to raise/fold. Otherwise you're blinding down and waiting too long for a premium hand.

 

What confused me was the SB flatting. Now you can't close the action, so raise/folding makes sense to me. I guess if your hud shows those remaining to act with a history of flatting then an adjustment would be in order. Or maybe it's the gin talking.

theginger45

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July 26, 2015 - 11:28 pm
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Shoving pre would most likely be +EV and unexploitable according to Nash, but it's not likely to be the best option.

The reason is that there are only two likely eventualities, broadly speaking, that can happen once you minraise:

1. The players behind you are 3-betting/shoving on you infrequently with tight ranges, making a minraise very profitable because it gets through very often, but making a call very unprofitable.

2. The players behind you are 3-betting/shoving on you more frequently, making a minraise slightly less profitable because it gets through less often, but making a call quite profitable once you get shoved on.

So basically the bottom line is that if you're that worried about getting shoved on once you minraise, that means it's probably a good idea to call it off. If you're not that worried about getting shoved on, just fold to the shove in the knowledge the raise was super profitable in the first place.

HoldemResources Calculator could tell you the exact profitability of this one. No need to rely on approximations and 45-minute chats with friends when a fairly cheap piece of software can tell you the exact answer within 2 minutes.

jacobsharktank
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July 26, 2015 - 11:33 pm
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well what would cause me to want to fold is active players behind, and the first player i'd look at is the bb. if he's solid, he's probably more so someone who defends a lot because that's a newish trend. he's going to ck/fold a lot i'm sure, but it's rather costly and your cbetting with 55 a lot of time in low spr pots. i'd rather raise another 20% of stuff and leave out the bottom pairs. what do you think? we don't have to raise every time it's folded to us with a top 25% hand i think. you won't make money on a steal if the bb is defending more a decent amount. minraise needs to work 50% usually and that's not the case, usually more likely so if the sb has a cold calling range thats tight. that's why i'd rather fold i think. because you're not making money on a preflop raise.

theginger45

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July 27, 2015 - 6:46 pm
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I can understand the argument for folding 55 here and preferring to raise hands that play better postflop, but I think you're underestimating how well 55 plays postflop (and preflop – raise/calling the button isn't out of the question here if button is aggressive), and ignoring some crucial considerations regarding our overall frequencies in this spot.

First part – I think we would really have to be making some bad decisions postflop for 55 not to be profitable here. I can understand how it's pretty awkward if the SB has a flatting range, but the wider the BB is defending the more we're going to find ourselves in spots where we can play comfortably postflop, and the SB is probably more likely to 3-bet us given the stack sizes, which makes 55 a good candidate for a raise/4-bet shove.

Second part – in terms of the pure profitability of the open-raise, firstly a minraise usually only has to work around 46%, depending on the antes. Small difference, but significant. Secondly, cutting some of the smaller pairs out of our opening range here does have an effect on our responses to potential smaller 3-bets from other players behind, and gives us fewer hands with which we have good equity 4-bet shoving versus a reasonably balanced range. We end up raising with a range that is disproportionately heavy on blocker-type hands that might be marginally more profitable preflop (or might not) but are much less comfortable shoving versus a 3-bet or withstanding aggression from the button or the BB.

It's an interesting spot. If OP can post the raw HH then I would be curious to run it through Holdem Resources Calculator to see what we get. Bottom line is that if OOP postflop play was a significant possibility here, I would think we'd be okay folding and constructing our range differently, but when we're almost guaranteed position if we do play postflop, I'd be surprised if we can't at least capture 100% of our equity here. In position, we can likely capture around 120-130% of it if the BB doesn't play particularly well after defending wide (which most players don't).

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