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Topic Rating: 5 Topic Rating: 5 Topic Rating: 5 Topic Rating: 5 Topic Rating: 5 Topic Rating: 5 (2 votes) 
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Shove or fold?
folding_aces_pre_yo
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October 2, 2015 - 7:19 pm
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#Game No : 779265525
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 779265525 *****
$50/$100 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #72907055 $7.25 + $0.75 – Table #15 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: CnHaze ( $6,908 )
Seat 2: JokyJoke ( $2,750 )
Seat 3: Fortaleza95 ( $3,175 )
Seat 4: filipekznn ( $5,386 )
Seat 5: london_ace ( $2,305 )
Seat 6: alladdin888 ( $5,766 )
Seat 7: hehlol ( $2,778 )
Seat 9: patongskills ( $3,265 )
Seat 10: dajellyfish ( $2,982 )
dajellyfish posts ante [$10]
CnHaze posts ante [$10]
JokyJoke posts ante [$10]
Fortaleza95 posts ante [$10]
filipekznn posts ante [$10]
london_ace posts ante [$10]
alladdin888 posts ante [$10]
hehlol posts ante [$10]
patongskills posts ante [$10]
CnHaze posts small blind [$50]
JokyJoke posts big blind [$100]
Fortaleza95 folds
filipekznn raises [$250]
london_ace raises [$2,295]         [ 9diamond, 9club ]
alladdin888 folds
hehlol folds
patongskills folds
dajellyfish folds
CnHaze folds
JokyJoke folds
filipekznn calls [$2,045]
** Dealing flop ** [ Qclub, 3club, 7diamond ]
** Dealing turn ** [ 7spade ]
** Dealing river ** [ Kdiamond ]
** Summary **

 

hey

 

not much reads, they’ve opened up on 2 occasions from 10 hands in total,  they opened up in EP and MP1, I’ve not seen any showdowns.

 

I’m assuming they are raising with like top 15% here maybe more? and calling with 8% range of hands , given that is our shove profitable? 

 

cheers.

joelshitshow
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October 2, 2015 - 10:40 pm
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What range are you shipping with? Do you have a 3-bet range here?

GunnJD
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October 4, 2015 - 6:08 pm
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Yup bit of an awkward stack. This shove will probably show a profit, but I’d work on developing a 3bet/call and 3bet/fold range here. 

This is also a good hand to put in our flat/4b jam range. If stacks behind were a little more shallow, I would flat and snap off a shove.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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October 5, 2015 - 10:30 am
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Joel, I’m shipping AK, 99+ not sure about AQs though? 

 

I do have a 3-bet range here yeah , but i dont 3-bet that much from this spot and if i do its more value then a bluff range. I’d 3-bet/call TT+ AK in this spot , so maybe i should 3-bet/call 9s as well? as for my bluff range it depends on my opponents tendencies i.e. they r/f to 3-bets often. If they do fold often to 3-bet i’d 3-bet a heavy blockers range hands like Ax Kx Qx  preferably suited. I’m not to sure what i’d do with hands like KQs/KJs/JQs/JTs/T9s in this spot , i’d probably flat some of those if i think they are opening a wide range from EP. I dont think 3-bet/folding those hands would be good since we will have good odds to call a 4-bet shove from V or from any other opponent that are still left to act. 

 

If i thought most players are playing optimally i’d probably 3-bet shove AQs in this spot and that would really be at the bottom of my range readless. 

BionicApe
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October 5, 2015 - 4:01 pm
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Assuming any of the seven players left to act will call with a top 5% hand.

Assuming only one caller and the caller always has you covered.

35% of the time you have 38.4% equity against a top 5% hand when called.

65% of the time you pick up 5bbs uncontested.

Using these values, shoving yields a profit of approx 2bbs.

This method isn’t very accurate, but good enough to give you a ballpark figure of profitability.

You’re going to lose a lot of flips jamming in spots like this, but that’s just the nature of the beast.  More and more, I’m coming to the conclusion that winning tournaments is to a large degree all about the fine art of winning coin-flips.   

GunnJD
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October 5, 2015 - 6:17 pm
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folding_aces_pre_yo said
Joel, I’m shipping AK, 99+ not sure about AQs though? 

 

I do have a 3-bet range here yeah , but i dont 3-bet that much from this spot and if i do its more value then a bluff range. I’d 3-bet/call TT+ AK in this spot , so maybe i should 3-bet/call 9s as well? as for my bluff range it depends on my opponents tendencies i.e. they r/f to 3-bets often. If they do fold often to 3-bet i’d 3-bet a heavy blockers range hands like Ax Kx Qx  preferably suited. I’m not to sure what i’d do with hands like KQs/KJs/JQs/JTs/T9s in this spot , i’d probably flat some of those if i think they are opening a wide range from EP. I dont think 3-bet/folding those hands would be good since we will have good odds to call a 4-bet shove from V or from any other opponent that are still left to act. 

 

If i thought most players are playing optimally i’d probably 3-bet shove AQs in this spot and that would really be at the bottom of my range readless. 

Yeah, so we can definitely flat pre with this stack. You could decide to flat pre with most of range, if you so desired.

I think having a balanced 3betting range around 25bigs is pretty cool.

If build a strategy whereby we are 3bet calling AJs+ AQo+ 88+ KQs, a good 3bet/folding range will consist of hands that are almost good to call with. Blockers are also nice too. 

So, what do you think your 3bet/folding range could be here?

Foucault

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October 5, 2015 - 6:48 pm
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fapy,

Why are shoving and folding the only options you’re considering?

Bionic,

The chances of the original raiser having a top 5% hand are a good deal greater than 5%.

kondor
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October 5, 2015 - 7:08 pm
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It seems like you want to know if you were correct to get it all in with the initial raiser, I think that is the wrong question though.

Here is the thing, there are 6 other players or if you like 7 players including the initial raiser left to act.
We have 23BB. The stack we have has a sort of magical property in that it is very easy to 3bet at a size that no one can really call with. They either have to 4bet (most likely shove if they do) or fold.

We can use that property to define what the ranges are of the players between us and the UTG+1 (initial raiser).

So although there might not seem a lot of difference between a 3bet call and a shove here at first, there is actually a lot of difference.
I emphasize this is mainly bought about by the fact its bloody hard to call your 3bet, in fact you would need a monster to flat call your 3bet really.

Now imagine if you 3bet, the button shoves, the BB shoves and the UTG+1 shoves.  

The point I am trying to make is, if everyone else folds you can still call the UTG+1 shove (he can’t really call a 3bet and he has you covered)
I reckon you could fold to anyone elses shove though even if the UTG+1 folded, but its close.
Think about the range of a UTG+1 raise and a UTG+2 3bet. 

Use the power of the 23BB stack 3bet and its un-call-ability to force your opponents to turn their hands face up (really just narrow their ranges to very few hands).

folding_aces_pre_yo
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October 6, 2015 - 9:01 pm
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GunJd, hands that are almost good to call with may include ATs/KTs/QTs/JTs/J9s .  my 3-bet/folding range would be weaker hands then that though , K2s-K9s , A2s-A5s, Q5s-Q9s J5s-J8s @this stacksize, if we were going to 3-bet a hand like JTs here we’d be getting good odds to call a 4-bet shove so i dont think we could put those sorta hands into our 3-bet/folding range at this stack depth. If stacks were deeper then yeah we could for sure. We have to very careful in which hands we choose to 3-bet because we may be getting good odds on calling a 4-bet shove. So those hands have to be rather weak , i.e K7o, J9o

thoughts on that?

 

focault, are you saying that I should consider flatting with a pair of 9s? The reason why i’m saying shove or fold is because if we flat with 9s the board is likely to be over cards to the flop so we probably will fold a lot to a 1/2 pot c-bet. With our stacksize as well we don’t have enough room to float on a flop like Axx or Kxx Qxx ect. Can’t we just put 9s in our 3bet/call range or shove? obv if we thought v was opening up a tighter range we could just fold, but we dont have any reads here. I think v will be opening up top 10% of hands here at least or maybe a bit more and 9s does good vs that, so shoving or 3-bet/c can’t be that bad?

i can also see maybe why flatting may be good as our hand could be ahead vs v opening range , we also are IP. there is going to be flops like Axx Jxx T52x which v may c-bet but that don’t mean we are behind, they could be betting KQs on these flop , which we are ahead of , the problem is though v could put a lot of pressure on us OTT.  At the same time though they may not since our flatting range from Mp1 may be quite strong, I mean we only have around 23bb so we are unlikely to flat too light in this spot and when we do call flop , they’ll not always barrel turn. So we may be able to check it down or even turn our hand into a bluff otr. i dunno it just seems really hard to pinpoint what is exactly the best line to take pre flop,  It really depends on v range of hands they are opening with or r/c with. we dont have much of a read in this spot.

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