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August 21, 2015
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From the Saturday Speedway yesterday.
I kicked myself for not just calling this. But I’m still not sure what I should’ve done. His play didn’t make much sense. And I bet not even Andrew is able to guess his hand 😉
1. Should I raise the flop? I decided to just call because I don’t really know what his donk bet means. Thinking i has a 2 or a weak J. Maybe a weak flush draw? I think if he bets again on a non-club, 2 or J turn I will shove.
2. When he checks turn I bet 750 to set up for a river shove if he calls as I’m putting him on some kind of weak made hand.
3. His river donk bet got me really confused, and that’s why I’m angry I didn’t just call. In retrospect I don’t see him calling a shove with a worse hand, but I should be ahead enough times to make the call. Folding is out of the question, right?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Think of it this way: you chose not to raise the flop for value, and your hand is now weaker than it was on the flop (that is, there are more ways you could be beat). So why would it make sense to raise for value on the river? That said, I’d raise flop. You don’t have to know what V’s bet “means” – poker isn’t a game of perfect information. You’ve got a monster that wants to front load. You’ll have weaker Ax and Jx for your calling range.
I’d also bet a bit larger on turn. You are setting up to bet 50% pot on turn and then 100% pot on river. Better to aim for a more similar ratio on both streets, IMO.
My guess for V would be a hand that improved with the 8. J8? 82? 8c 7c?
August 21, 2015
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Very useful feedback as always. Thank you very much.
Yeah, my biggest regret is not raising the flop. I guess I tend to get a bit stunned by donk bets, and it may be a bigger leak than I have been aware of. When I busted my biggest frustration was that I didn’t just call the river, now I see that I set myself up for failure on all streets.
June 11, 2012
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well yeah flop is clear raise as villain can lead with a lot of hands that we are ahead and board is reasonably dynamic. so a lot of turns can be bad for our hand or we get villain of the hook.
turn as Andrew said bet bigger. You want the two bets (turn and river) be close to equal fractions of the pot. I was for long time guilty of doing what you did here on turn.
There is one easy thing that helps preventing this. Turn off the bet slider options postflop and start thinking
for river what worse hands do you expect villain to call?
August 21, 2015
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Hey florian. Thanks for the input.
Really interesting point about turning off the bet sliders. I will try that immediately.
About the river shove, that’s exactly what I was mad about. There is no point in raising, because he will not call with hands that top pair top kicker beats, and it actually makes my play a bluff, which is just silly with that hand. Does this make sense?
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