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shove flop?
folding_aces_pre_yo
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July 23, 2015 - 4:55 pm
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#Game No : 713019522
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 713019522 *****
$400/$800 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***
Tournament #70855543 $1.80 + $0.20 – Table #63 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: AndreeA19RO ( $8,231 )
Seat 2: MAC950 ( $6,660 )
Seat 3: 8Drag0ns ( $8,860 )
Seat 4: janepeile ( $10,074 )
Seat 5: Pay2seednk ( $11,254 )
Seat 6: KPichugin ( $84,395 )
Seat 7: london_ace ( $13,740 )
Seat 9: rolingston ( $17,955 )
Seat 10: Suzie_Que ( $10,370 )
Suzie_Que posts ante [$100]
AndreeA19RO posts ante [$100]
8Drag0ns posts ante [$100]
janepeile posts ante [$100]
Pay2seednk posts ante [$100]
rolingston posts ante [$100]
london_ace posts ante [$100]
KPichugin posts ante [$100]
MAC950 posts ante [$100]
KPichugin posts small blind [$400]
london_ace posts big blind [$800]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ 9spade, Qheart ]
rolingston folds
Suzie_Que folds
AndreeA19RO folds
MAC950 folds
8Drag0ns folds
janepeile calls [$800]
Pay2seednk folds
KPichugin calls [$400]
london_ace checks
** Dealing flop ** [ 9heart, 6spade, 8club]
KPichugin bets [$3,300]
london_ace raises [$12,840]
janepeile folds
KPichugin calls [$9,540]
** Dealing turn ** [ Kdiamond ]
** Dealing river ** [ 5heart ]
** Summary **

Hey

Reads – V is new to the table , loose passive , has been limping in probably every hand so far.

Not sure what to make of their pot size bet…their range seems like 9x JT, 67s..

thoughts?

cheers.

joelshitshow
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July 24, 2015 - 7:16 pm
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In a $2 tournament anything is possible. It’s hard to know what to infer from a pot size bet, especially on a board like that when the SB completed.

theginger45

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July 24, 2015 - 8:05 pm
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I really don't see what else you could possibly do here besides shove. You've already identified that their range might include a lot of hands (and if you're including any 9x hand, we're really talking a LOT of hands) that you're well ahead of, so with stacks being so short after that big flop bet, it seems like a great spot for you. What other options do you think you have here?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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July 26, 2015 - 8:48 pm
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Flatting would be terrible , the only other option we have here is to fold , though that would be really exploitable right?  it's just that we're in a multi way pot and players tend to play more straight forwardly, so in other words , it felt as if they have a hand stronger then mine , hands like K9/A9 maybe two pair 96 68 , some sorta weird hand like that. Though at the same time , they could have worse , weaker 9x hands , and with stacks being this shallow , i think shoving is only right

 

anyhow , v had T9o , we scooped up a big pot. 🙂

theginger45

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July 27, 2015 - 6:33 pm
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It's not so much that you should worry about folding being exploitable here (it is, but that's not the point because barely anyone in a $2 tournament even knows what 'exploitable' means). It's more that you should worry about it being straightforwardly unprofitable in comparison to other options.

Flatting is a whole lot better than folding. If you're saying flatting < folding then you're effectively saying flatting is -EV, since folding is neutral EV. It's extremely unlikely flatting could ever be -EV unless we a) plan to fold to literally any bet on any further street regardless of the runout, or b) are up against an opponent so tight that we have poor equity versus their flop betting range.

Everything is relative – flatting is bad in relation to shoving because when we shove we get called by so many worse hands (and sometimes villain just folds and we pick up the pot), but flatting can only be worse than folding if it's so bad that our EV is less than zero from this point onwards. If flatting is +1 chip in EV, it's better than folding.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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July 28, 2015 - 2:09 pm
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ahh I see that does make more sense, nice work ginger and thanks!

 

One thing i'd like to point out is that , lets just say we did flat and the turn is Kh , v checks and we shove , they fold , that would be a really bad outcomef or us , because we lost value on the flop , we could of just shoved instead of flat so does that not mean the ev+ is some what negative for flatting.

theginger45

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July 28, 2015 - 3:17 pm
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No, I think you're mixing up the idea of 'losing value' with 'being -EV'. EV cannot be 'somewhat negative', EV is a specific number that is either positive, neutral, or negative. Most of the time all we're doing is estimating roughly what this number is and making the play that gives us the highest number, even if we're not specifically trying to calculate it mentally.

In this case, what you've pointed out there is one specific instance in which our opponent check-folds the turn with a hand that would have gotten it all-in on the flop and is worse than ours, which is just a small fraction of all the possibilities that go into consideration when deciding whether the EV of flatting > the EV of shoving or not. In this particular instance, it's disappointing that our opponent might choose to check-fold a hand that could have given us more value, but it's not -EV. It can't possibly be -EV, because in fact on occasions where our opponent folds, our EV is to win the entire pot 100% of the time. We could have won more had we gotten called by a worse hand, but we still won a bunch of chips.

Try not to confuse 'there are some bad things that can happen' with 'this is -EV'. EV already factors in all the bad things that can happen, and weighs them against the good things to create a number that tells us how profitable a decision is. In this hand, both flatting and shoving are +EV, but shoving is significantly more +EV, making it the best play. If you run some calculations with CardRunnersEV, you'll see it's actually reasonably tough to make a -EV play, since usually in any given hand each of the players involved has at least some chance of capturing some of the pot, especially on the flop when both players usually have some equity.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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July 28, 2015 - 8:36 pm
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that makes a lot of sense , thank you ginger!

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