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Should we be going for a 3rd street of value here early in the warm up?
StringerBell1982
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February 12, 2012 - 12:15 pm
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do we shove the river and go for maximum value here or are we just value owning ourselves as 1 pair is always beat if he calls 3 streets?

 

Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t20/t40 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

SIXMAXIMUS (SB): t9960 249 BBs
Kripp85 (BB): t9860 246.50 BBs
wesslan_19 (UTG): t9920 248 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t9554 238.85 BBs
Marius2910 (UTG+2): t9734 243.35 BBs
W-314 (MP1): t10580 264.50 BBs
Mr Negreanu (MP2): t9660 241.50 BBs
birs320 (CO): t9960 249 BBs
GabrielMoyaa (BTN): t10772 269.30 BBs

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is UTG+1 with A of hearts A of clubs
1 fold, Hero raises to t120, 5 folds, SIXMAXIMUS raises to t320, 1 fold, Hero raises to t741, SIXMAXIMUS calls t421

Flop: (t1522) Q of hearts 7 of hearts 2 of diamonds (2 players)
SIXMAXIMUS checks, Hero bets t852, SIXMAXIMUS calls t852

Turn: (t3226) 5 of clubs (2 players)
SIXMAXIMUS checks, Hero bets t2140, SIXMAXIMUS calls t2140

River: (t7506) 4 of spades (2 players)
SIXMAXIMUS checks, Hero ?????????????

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Killingbird
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February 12, 2012 - 4:25 pm
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about the safest river ever…I would def bet here.

StringerBell1982
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February 12, 2012 - 4:44 pm
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It wasn't the river that scared me – I was more thinking have we been firing into a set/2 pair on the other 2 streets as our range early in the tourney and UTG+1 looks super strong so I wouldnt expect to be getting called down by worse for 3 streets? is this a floor in my thinking?

black666
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February 12, 2012 - 7:36 pm
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easy shove. you have under a psb left and villain played it super weak by checking to you 3 streets

 

but I guess you probably shipped and villain snapped you off with QQ .. nh

bennymacca
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February 12, 2012 - 7:39 pm
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if you look strong, then they arent going to be bluffing river once you check, so i think it is definitely a bet. if you think villain won't raise with worse then you bet-fold river. you would be surprised how light you can get looked up sometimes given the flush draw missed too. 

 

as the board runout was relatively dry i would bet-fold something like 2400

 

black666
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February 12, 2012 - 7:51 pm
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We have an overpair with 6k left in a 7.5k pot and villain checked to us the 3rd time .. how can we ever b/f here?

 

Either shove or check back if you are feeling nitty.

hawkeyeK9
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February 12, 2012 - 10:15 pm
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Im with Benny on this one!

bennymacca
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February 12, 2012 - 10:20 pm
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black666 said:

We have an overpair with 6k left in a 7.5k pot and villain checked to us the 3rd time .. how can we ever b/f here?

 

Either shove or check back if you are feeling nitty.

what do you get looked up with if you shove?
I think we are trying to get value out of hands such as KQ, QJ, QT, JJ, KK. How many of those type hands call a bet-bet-shove line?
StringerBell1982
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February 13, 2012 - 2:32 am
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This is what I was thinking, am I ever getting called on the 3rd street with worse?

My range here should be polarised with AA/KK/AQ/QQ and so other than QQ we should expect villain to be check calling 2 pair/sets right?

In answer black he flipped over JJ so no hidden bad beat story here 🙂

Just wondering if I missed value here/whether he would even of called/if this is a small part of his check calling range and usually he is stronger?

JLUDEOBV
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February 13, 2012 - 4:20 am
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checking back is kind of nitty but i like it, especially since it is early and you probably don't have any reads on him. you aren't getting called by much worse and i wouldn't be surprised if he folded Qx to a river bet. it's obv early in the tournament so taking this large pot down is important. you absolutely are not betting river and then folding to a shove. i think if he has a set he maybe donk leads river for a rather small bet putting you on AA or KK so you are clearly good here when he checks. check back imo.

duggs
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February 13, 2012 - 6:39 am
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I really dont understand the fear of 2 pair/sets OP, maybe Im not giving him enough credit but his preflop action is indicative of mid strength pocket pairs/suited broadways, so i dont see many sets in his range at all bar QQ which he probably leads the river.

Def bet for value on river

Squibsorz
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February 13, 2012 - 8:51 am
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I agree with benny. Value betting river gets called by some hands you beat but seems unlikely that he calls if you jam.

emufart
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February 13, 2012 - 4:35 pm
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I'm surprised no-one has mentioned this yet, but I think that this decision needs to be made on the turn, not the river. 
You have AA in position on the turn in a headsup pot on a board showing  Q of hearts 7 of hearts 2 of diamonds5 of clubs. Before you automatically bet here, you must decide if you are going to go for 3 streets of value or just 2. 
Whether you can get 3 streets of value or not will obviously depend on several factors; image, opponents tendancies, if your opponent is tilting or not, what level they are thinking on, etc.
If you come to the conclusion that the situation warrents only going for 2 streets of value, then I would recommend as a default line vs most players to check behind on the turn with the intention of either calling a river bet, or betting for value on the river when checked to. You stil get the same amount of value  from Qx, JJ type hands as you would have if you had bet the turn, except now you save money when you're beat, or if they improve on the river. You even still get the same value from flush draws vs alot of players, as they will often bluff the river if you check back the turn. You may even get looked up by a floating A-high, or a weak 1-pair hand this way that would have just folded if you had bet the turn.

Now obviously this line has it's flaws as well, you miss out on value from flush draws vs players that won't bluff when they miss, and you become predictable if you allways use this line, so it's good to mix it up. I would much rather just fire the turn again vs passive calling stations for example,  but then I would probably be going for three streets vs them anyway. And sometimes your opponent will catch a miracle river with their gutshot that they would've folded if you had bet the turn again. But these suckouts don't happen very often, and the many times that they bluff the river with their missed gutshot will more than make up for it. 

So in general I think if you're only going to go for 2 streets, checking back the turn is the superior play, but whatever your plan is, make it on the turn. Or better yet, the flop.

black666
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February 14, 2012 - 11:50 am
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bennymacca said:

what do you get looked up with if you shove?

 
I think we are trying to get value out of hands such as KQ, QJ, QT, JJ, KK. How many of those type hands call a bet-bet-shove line?
 
 
 

 

I get your point .. if you don't think that villain is calling with worse, just check it back. But I think that b/f with under a psb left is major spew. What kind of hands would you be getting value from with a b/f line that would fold to hero shove? I don't think there is that much of a difference between those two calling ranges..

 

I would even like to bet super small .. like 500-1k .. just to fu*k with villain and get him to spaz c/shove with worse because he doesn't know what else to do lol.

 

imo:

shove > bet super small to induce & call >>> check >>>>>>>>>>>> b/f

bennymacca
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February 14, 2012 - 5:50 pm
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respectfully disagree

 

i think villain will call a small bet with worse, but i dont think they will ever call a shove with worse. 

 

by betting small, it looks like we are committing ourselves but in reality we are still left with 85bb if we bet-fold here. 

 

 

FkCoolers
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February 15, 2012 - 7:52 am
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Sets would have raised you on the turn. 

The way the board is, there's almost no possible 2 pair combo unless the guy is a fish. And if that's true, you'd have gotten raised on the flop or turn. 

Bet the river. 2500-3000 seems ok. I don't think most hands call a shove. Maybe KQ does. AQ definitely does. But I don't think he has either of those. 

theginger45
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February 15, 2012 - 9:14 am
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Surprised there's not more talk about villain's range for 3betting and flatting a 4bet OOP 250bb deep pre-ante. Assuming villain is vaguely competent, our line of opening UTG+1 and 4betting him when he 3bets OOP is just gonna look ridic strong, so when he flats OOP I doubt he's doing it lighter than TT-QQ, probably not with AK because it plays so badly OOP, and probably not with AQ because it's such a thin 3bet pre. We also have blockers to AK/AQ, which means it's overwhelmingly likely he has TT-QQ, maybe 99 or 88 if he's loose.

 

When the board runs out the way it does, there's almost no way he has any 2pair combo and the only set he can really have is QQ, which he almost always raises on flop or turn anyway. This leaves us with JJ/TT/99, where he's in a tough spot on the turn but is gonna very often convince himself to call turn and river because lol we must have AK. There's very little reason for us to fear anything on this board unless there are specific dynamics at play, which there aren't gonna be this early in the tournament. If villain keeps checking, we keep betting.

rivermen123
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February 15, 2012 - 11:05 am
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black666 said:

We have an overpair with 6k left in a 7.5k pot and villain checked to us the 3rd time .. how can we ever b/f here?

 

Either shove or check back if you are feeling nitty.

+1

bennymacca
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February 15, 2012 - 7:54 pm
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awesome discussion here guys. 

 

i kinda wanna know results now but it might kill the thread

JLUDEOBV
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February 16, 2012 - 1:04 am
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theginger45 said:

Surprised there's not more talk about villain's range for 3betting and flatting a 4bet OOP 250bb deep pre-ante. Assuming villain is vaguely competent, our line of opening UTG+1 and 4betting him when he 3bets OOP is just gonna look ridic strong, so when he flats OOP I doubt he's doing it lighter than TT-QQ, probably not with AK because it plays so badly OOP, and probably not with AQ because it's such a thin 3bet pre. We also have blockers to AK/AQ, which means it's overwhelmingly likely he has TT-QQ, maybe 99 or 88 if he's loose.

 

When the board runs out the way it does, there's almost no way he has any 2pair combo and the only set he can really have is QQ, which he almost always raises on flop or turn anyway. This leaves us with JJ/TT/99, where he's in a tough spot on the turn but is gonna very often convince himself to call turn and river because lol we must have AK. There's very little reason for us to fear anything on this board unless there are specific dynamics at play, which there aren't gonna be this early in the tournament. If villain keeps checking, we keep betting.

+1 to this. I misread how the action went down. I completely agree with this. Well said.

shutEMdown
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February 16, 2012 - 6:43 pm
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easy river bet. agree with theginger45. and i prob dont shove river since its for his tourney life in the warm up but since he is so retarded in calling your 4bet pre and then c/c down he might just call it off anyway since you obv must have AK. really close between betting like 3456 or shoving.

running0uts
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February 17, 2012 - 8:37 am
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StringerBell1982 said:

I was more thinking have we been firing into a set/2 pair on the other 2 streets

Given the action preflop there are no 2pair hands in his range and most of the possible sets are out too. In fact I would say the only hand you could be losing to is QQ. If he has that and has been tricky with it then wp to him and it's a cooler. I am definitely jamming this river.

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