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November 4, 2013
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What a confusing game.
One of the most difficult parts of it for me is understanding whether a decision I've made would yield results similar to what I've just witnessed in the long run – both when running good and running bad. While understanding that there is a reason for the pinned thread about how to post hands appropriately, and realizing there is no desire for bad beat posts intended simply for consolement – it can be difficult for less advanced players like me to know how to feel about our play in some confusing hands.
Just because we got rivered, it doesn't mean we took a bad beat, right? Maybe we needed to take a more aggressive line, maybe we shouldn't have been in there in the first place, or maybe we should have slowed down on the turn when it came down nasty.
In any case, I feel kind of bad posting hands like this, but honestly, I got to. It's not because I want to feel better about myself, I just cannot tell if I should have gotten away from this situation. In some ways it's more difficult to know, because the hand was against a call station who seemed so bad after just ten hands that I didn't even trust my assessment of him being so bad and sharkscoped him after the game (-120%, -$1,200). I know you are supposed to be extracting value from these players, not bluffing them, and I have been struggling to figure out how to do this. I seem to wind up wondering if I'm the donkey.
The game is a $2 turbo rebuy with a large 2$ addon. We are just a bit after the addon. Villain is oldmanriver0. I have only ten hands on him 50/20/0.0, limp 33, but watch how he got his chips five hands prior and I believe you will understand:
Merge Network $150 Gtd – [+R, Turbo] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t250.00/t500.00 Blinds + t50.00 – 8 players – View hand 2381701
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
graybrd (UTG+1): BB = 12.2, t6110
perch8 (MP1): BB = 12.9, t6450
JD108234 (MP2): BB = 15.5, t7760
oldmanriver0 (CO): BB = 16.6, t8310
Hero (BTN): BB = 18.2, t9097
hoosiernut (SB): BB = 21.7, t10844
PlayinHigh420 (BB): BB = 13.9, t6950
smkjoe40 (UTG): BB = 22.8, t11412
Pre Flop: (t1150) Hero is BTN but will fold preflop.
2 folds, perch8 raises to t1500.00, JD108234 raises to t7710 all in, oldmanriver0 raises to t8260 all in, 3 folds, perch8 calls t4900 all in
oldmanriver0 turned over K
Q
Flop: (t22970) T
2
3 (3 players – 3 are all in)
Turn: (t22970) 5 (3 players – 3 are all in)
etc. oldmanriver0 gets a stack.
He will call all in with just about anything that looks nice, but I shall not let my ego get in the way of good play. Here is another hand I played with him:
Merge Network $150 Gtd – [+R, Turbo] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t250.00/t500.00 Blinds + t50.00 – 7 players – View hand 2381706
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
graybrd (BB): BB = 12.0, t6010
prettygaga21 (UTG): BB = 11.9, t5950
oldmanriver0 (UTG+1): BB = 46.9, t23470
Hero (MP): BB = 18.0, t8997
hoosiernut (CO): BB = 21.0, t10494
PlayinHigh420 (BTN): BB = 12.2, t6100
smkjoe40 (SB): BB = 21.6, t10812
Pre Flop: (t1100) Hero is MP with J K
1 fold, oldmanriver0 calls t500, Hero raises to t1600.00, 2 folds, smkjoe40 calls t1350, 1 fold, oldmanriver0 calls t1100
Flop: (t5650) 8
J T (3 players)
smkjoe40 checks, oldmanriver0 checks, Hero bets t7347 all in, smkjoe40 folds, oldmanriver0 folds
So we see him playing this passive style pretty clearly. If the above move was reckless on the flop, please let me know.
Here is the hand that came up ten hands in:
Farha is also new to me, and his play has been much less quirky, despite also limping some – after 10 hands of 30/0/0.0, limping 40, I consider myself to have no reads on him
Merge Network $150 Gtd – [+R, Turbo] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t300.00/t600.00 Blinds + t60.00 – 9 players – View hand 2381710
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
graybrd (MP2): BB = 8.6, t5160
Farha19 (CO): BB = 17.2, t10305
noflukingluck1961 (BTN): BB = 35.2, t21148
prettygaga21 (SB): BB = 8.1, t4850
oldmanriver0 (BB): BB = 26.7, t16037
Hero (UTG): BB = 21.6, t12947
hoosiernut (UTG+1): BB = 17.3, t10394
PlayinHigh420 (UTG+2): BB = 10.0, t6000
smkjoe40 (MP1): BB = 27.4, t16445
Pre Flop: (t1440) Hero is UTG with Q K
Action on Hero.
Already a small question. It's UTG, and I know some people fold all but a tight range UTG. Is it ok to open here to try to get some chips? I have 21 BB, enough to get away from a reraise, and my UTG raise should look strong to everyone, except of course for oldmanriver in the BB, who will probably call. I choose to min raise, because I feel oldman will call the same amount of times against a 2.5x as against a 2x, and I can save money when reraised by someone else.
Hero raises to t1200.00, 4 folds, Farha19 calls t1200, 2 folds, oldmanriver0 calls t600
Flop: (t4440) 4 3 K (3 players)
oldmanriver0 checks, action on Hero.
I have a hand. I was hoping to be heads up against oldmanriver0, but Farha says he has something. I think he would flat with lots of pocket pairs, strong aces, maybe up to AK, and some broadway hands, many of which I have dominated. I choose to go a bit over half the pot so as to look strong but keep other decent hands in the mix.
Hero bets t2600.00, Farha19 calls t2600, oldmanriver0 calls t2600
Any feedback on sizing?
Turn: (t12240) 3
(3 players)
oldmanriver0 checks, action on Hero
So they both called. What would you guys do here? I still feel that I am ahead. Worried about that 3, of course, and kind of worried about Farha in general. But I'm playing for value here. If Farha or oldman flatted with AK, I say good hand to them. Farha can easily have believed his 99 to be best on the flop, and flatted me to see if I'd shut down on the turn. He can also easily have KJs or KTs here. If either players has 44 or 33, also good hand to them.
Hero bets t9087 all in, Farha19 folds, oldmanriver0 calls t9087
You guys can obviously tell that I lost this hand from how I am describing things. My question is, did I play this hand for value ok?
Should I have slowed down on the turn when called by two players?
Was it at least good that I didn't fold preflop?
Thank you for any feedback. This is the type of hand that makes the game difficult in a very subtle way. It's also the kind of hand that a beginner like me might be timid to ask about, but truly needs to ask about sometimes, because there are so many variables to consider in what a strong or weak play is in the long run.
November 22, 2013
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Generally, I try not to meddle with individual's preflop raises, because everyone has a different strategy. I think min-raising UTG with KQs is fine, but I disagree with your reasoning. If the opponents you are expecting to face are as fishy as you describe them to be then they really won't understand position; therefore, they won't understand that raising UTG is a sign of strength. So in order to raise you have to be raising for value and KQs is the lower end of what I will raise UTG with, unless I am deeper stacked, which you are not. I don't disagree with the raise, nor agree with it, as I think it is borderline. When you hit a K on the flop c-betting is fine, I presume you would cbet with air, so you must cbet for value in order to have balanced lines. On the turn, generally people check for pot control with a moderate strength hand, which you are holding. The reason for this is that it is difficult to get value from worse and there can be better. I would check turn and call river if my opponent bets.
March 26, 2013
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Don’t be too hard on yourself here. I like the min-raise. If someone behind 3b then you still have room to fold and if you get callers then you are unlikely dominated and have a hand that plays well.
Flop is pretty good for you with it being dry and K high but equally when you bet that strong and get called by two spots then you might need to be a bit wary. I would actually have bet smaller on flop given the board is not draw heavy. 1/3rd pot would achieve the same if villains have air.
Turn looks pretty safe so I would have bet here as well as you are definitely getting value from players with weaker kings and even hands like 66-TT but I can also see merit in checking as if you’re ahead there are not many cards that can come and beat you plus you control the pot. If it checks round then you’re almost certainly in front and can safely bet the river.
To be honest though, once you raise pre, hit K on a dry flop, likelihood is you’re happy to GII with 19bbs left behind. I doubt many online players would want to 2nd guess themselves on this hand and remember although you got beat this time I’m sure plenty of times you will get value and not be beaten especially in low buy-in online events.
November 18, 2013
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What did he show up with Q3???
As played Cbet less check turn
Don’t beat yourself up plenty of times he shows up with K9 etc
November 4, 2013
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Thank you for the feedback guys.
C-bet sizing is pretty tricky business. The factors involved seem to argue for larger or smaller sizes at the same time, and I guess it’s our job to find the right balance. I can see how in some ways a smaller C-bet here (like 1/3 pot) accomplishes much of what a larger C-bet does as far as gaining information, getting folds, charging for draws (not in this case as there weren't many draws) etc. The smaller C-bet spends less chips and allows us to control the pot size. But I also thought the C-bet should be on the larger end here because I thought we are supposed to bet more when we are going for value against someone who will call light.
I guess my hand wasn’t strong enough to warrant that argument? I realize top pair king kicker against two opponents isn’t all that great.
oldmanriver turned over T3 :—)
A follow up quesiton:
I wonder if min raise opens are sometimes guilty of allowing the BB player too easy a price to call? I know that sometimes it helps us by producing a steal for less chips and we can fold to reraises with smaller losses. But sometimes it seems to just allow the BB to get a cheapish flop and suck out on us.
Let’s say we are considering opening UTG with AQs. Do you guys think there are certain indicators that a 2.5x raise to open is far more effective than a min raise open? What about the other way around? What might those indicators be?
November 22, 2013
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It's not so much an issue of better or worse so much as it is an issue of tradeoffs. Generally, you should not vary your raise size based on specific holdings, because you then become very transparent. Some players are excellent at playing 'small-ball' so min-raise works great because it allows for more flexibility post-flop, which is where they excell. For novices, raising 3x BB is probably better as it defines your opponent's hand if they call. For example, your opponent most likely would not call a 3XBB raise with 10,3. One thing that I would advise is to be consistent not only in how you raise preflop but that your actions postflop are in accordance with game flow. The reason why you min-raised is because you wanted to control the size of the pot, to allow yourself to get away from the hand if 3bet all-in, and to control the size of the pot post-flop. Min-raising preflop then stacking post-flop is not paying attention to game flow. If you were willing to stack off with top pair then you should have raised more preflop to where your opponent was folding junk and to where he would be committed to calling your all-in if you hit top pair. If you were min-raising that implies that you weren't willing to stack off. By min-raising then stacking off, you basically just gave your opponent the implied odds he needed to try to outflop you.
November 4, 2013
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That is some damn good feedback. Thanks Wiz. I have some pondering to do.
November 22, 2013
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November 22, 2013
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Thanks! But my advice is don't take anything I say as being correct. Nothing is gospel. Do what works for you and discard the rest.
November 18, 2013
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This is something I’ve been working on recently also Schwartz, and please take it with a grain of salt- I too, am still learning.
Sizing: early levels pre ante I think 3xing is fine, maybe when it gets to 50-100 we can start 2.5xing. Once antes kick in I don’t mind continuing the 2.5 unless the avg stack is shallow like 40-50 bb then we can start min raising. As long as the sizing isn’t dictated by our cards then I don’t think we can be giving too much info away.
I’m finding at the low stakes I play 5-20 min raises do get flatted a lot more often than in the big dog videos, getting floated oop by deuce bags with bottom pair happens a lot more also. Maybe it’s because I’m not as scary as the big dog but in all likelihood I think it’s just the stake, people just don’t play that seriously when it’s a couple of dollars for a tourney and they can just reg another.
I like zurs reasoning but I think you bet enough on flop to drive off trash hands this guy was just bad. I still check turn for pot control, if he’s that bad maybe he’s not value betting river and we can get to showdown???? Just a thought it’s hard to devise strategies and counter strategies against fish who don’t really think things through.
Maybe try find some bigger buyin smaller field tournaments with a nice slow structure and deep starting stacks???
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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” Is it ok to open here to try to get some chips?”
If there are other reasons for raising, I don't know about them ;-P
Yes, it's a good open. Your sizing should generally be smaller, in most spots, when effective stacks are very small. So min-raising your whole opening range with 21 BBs is good. Looser opponents, especially weak ones in the big blind, are a reason to bluff less but to make more thin value raises. So I'd be more inclined to open KQs at a loose table than a tight one (though I'd open at both and only fold if there were a bunch of good and aggressive devils behind me). But I mean if people are going to call with KT and QJ why not raise KQ?
I do like a smaller bet size on the flop, not because it would have prevented this situation or enabled you to play pot control or anything like that but because, again, shallow stacks plus a dry board mean that you don't need to bet much with any hand in your range. When you flop a monster, as you did here, you can easily get all-in by the river even if you bet small.
“I choose to go a bit over half the pot so as to look strong”
Why do you want to look strong?
If BB is calling preflop with T3, he's probably also calling K4, K5, K6, K7, etc. You see what I'm getting at. Trying to play a small pot here is a huge mistake considering how many second best hands are out there. You can expect to get your money in very good against his range, and you basically just got unlucky to run into a rare better hand. It's not exactly what most people mean by a bad beat, but it's still unlucky. You need to think about the whole range of hands that will get it in against you, not just the one hand he happened to have. You don't have to be ahead 100% of the time to get it in.
I'd suggest watching or re-watching my Getting Paid series. It talks about a lot of these concepts in much greater detail. In some cases it might be more detail than you need right now, but don't worry if you don't follow everything. You should still be able to come away with some good ideas about how to handle spots like this in the future.
Buena suerte!
Andrew
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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icantmtt said:
“I'm finding at the low stakes I play 5-20 min raises do get flatted a lot more often than in the big dog videos, getting floated oop by deuce bags with bottom pair happens a lot more also. “
Your opponents are allowed to play however they want. It's best not to have an opinion on these things. You should be a profit-seeking missile whose only goal is to figure out what they are doing and how to take maximum advantage. Don't waste time and energy getting angry or judging them. If they are making mistakes, then find a way to exploit them. If you can't figure out how, then that is YOUR mistake, not theirs.
“I think you bet enough on flop to drive off trash hands”
Why would you want to drive off trash hands? Getting called by T3 is much better than getting a fold from T3.
“it's hard to devise strategies and counter strategies against fish who don't really think things through.”
It's MUCH harder to devise counter strategies against thinking players, I assure you. Because that's what they're thinking about: how to avoid getting countered. Honestly, if your opponents will call you with anything, is it really so hard to figure out a viable counter-strategy? It's true that certain plays you see in videos from higher stakes games might not work, but that's only because far simpler counter-strategies, such as “don't run big bluffs and make lots of thin value bets”, will work instead. Trying to get stacks in when you flop top pair with a good kicker is a great counter-strategy against a loose player. Just because you occasionally get sucked out on doesn't mean the strategy doesn't work or there's no sense in trying.
November 18, 2013
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Thanks Andrew
Constructive criticism is always welcome. I think the frustration (for me anyway) comes from having learnt how to play an aggressive style from reading things like supersystem and watching a few Full tilt training videos etc. TPE and playing a bit more these days is teaching me the need to adjust to different play styles. I'm learning that continued aggression and trying to drive these players off hands does not work and instead I need to play more of a fit and fold style poker value betting hard when I have it and controlling losses when I dont.
November 4, 2013
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Faucault,
Thank you for the response. I have not had a chance to watch Getting Paid but I certainly will.
“Why do you want to look so strong?” you asked. In this case, I wanted to look reasonably strong because I wanted to try to get value from the BB, but I didn't like Farha in there as well. In general I get the feeling that going in against one opponent is usually better than two, unless we're playing an absolute monster, which I don't have.
That's my reason but I can imagine there would be flaws with it.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I'd encourage you to try to think in terms of ranges and how your actions will influence your opponents' ranges. Especially on this board, there's really no way that you could make an opponent fold any hand you'd actually want him to fold. Either you're smoked by a flopped 2pair/set, or else no one could have more than 8 outs and most likely 5 or fewer. Looking strong won't cause Farha to make a bad fold, but it might cause him to make a good fold.
June 24, 2012
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WizardZur said:
One thing that I would advise is to be consistent not only in how you raise preflop but that your actions postflop are in accordance with game flow. The reason why you min-raised is because you wanted to control the size of the pot, to allow yourself to get away from the hand if 3bet all-in, and to control the size of the pot post-flop. Min-raising preflop then stacking post-flop is not paying attention to game flow. If you were willing to stack off with top pair then you should have raised more preflop to where your opponent was folding junk and to where he would be committed to calling your all-in if you hit top pair. If you were min-raising that implies that you weren't willing to stack off. By min-raising then stacking off, you basically just gave your opponent the implied odds he needed to try to outflop you.
I don't think you have to pot-control post flop just because you “pot controlled” pre flop. Pre-flop you have a marginal hand which is not going to do to well against a value 3beting range, so its fine to min raise and fold to a 3bet. When the flop comes down things completely change, you essentially flop a monster given that you'd expect AK to 3bet a lot of the time preflop and ok sets are def in their range but its hard to flop a set so I'd be looking to get max value from weaker kings and smaller pairs here. That is why I don't understand why you would want to check back the turn on a pretty safe card just because you wanted to pot controll pre-flop. The overall concept may have some merit but in this situation theres no reason to pot controll post
November 22, 2013
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I agree that AK would have 3 bet, making KQ TPTK. However, I don't know that I consider TPTK to be a monster.
November 18, 2013
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So we don’t mind getting it in since, given opponents wide range, we are ahead more times than we are behind??
Chalk up sets,2p and suck outs to the long run?
March 26, 2013
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I think against most villains when you raise KQ from early position, only get flatted and get a very good flop and turn card (versus most villains, 3s simply are not in their range) then you are looking to gain maximum value from lesser Ks and stubborn medium pairs so GII here can never be bad in the long run.
Sadly, on this hand the guy picked up a great turn card but if he is playing T3 OOP and calls flop then it is likely he calls more bets when a 3 does not hit so I am never really looking to get away in this spot. If he has us beat GG and move on as I think the play is profitable in the long run.
November 22, 2013
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I agree that the majority of the time you are ahead of your opponent’s average range. But I would caution against this reasoning: 1) I am ahead of his average range; 2) Therefore, I jam. What he has in this specific hand is independent of his average range. Maybe he would call off in a dominated position here, but I have seen people lay down hands like K2 on boards like that facing an all-in bet. When someone with a wide calling range calls on the flop, indicating a weak pair, and the turn pairs you have to be very careful. They are often calling with weak pairs on a disguised “two-pair or trips draw”. Remember so long as you have a single pair and they have a lower pair that they have 5 outs, which isn’t significantly worse than an open-ended straight draw, and is better than a gut shot. It’s not entirely ridiculous to call the flop with a weak pair, hoping to stack someone who is committed if you hit, which is exactly what he did. Granted, that move is much better the deeper you are. So I would say this situation is somewhat of a “it's hard to get value from worse and he could have better”, although I see that most people disagree. I would just say be careful with certain opponents when the board pairs a bottom or middle pair.
November 4, 2013
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This is a most helpful discussion.
I do hope to slow down on the turn (check and call) next time this happens as I believe that will be the best way to get value from worse hands while being careful of a situation where I can be badly damaged by either of two players hanging around. I won’t be afraid to get it in, but I must admit that the jam on the turn was impulsive.
If I had flopped a true monster, like top two pair or better, I would feel much better about playing it fast for value, like I did in this hand.
November 22, 2013
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derSchwartz said:
This is a most helpful discussion.
I do hope to slow down on the turn (check and call) next time this happens as I believe that will be the best way to get value from worse hands while being careful of a situation where I can be badly damaged by either of two players hanging around. I won't be afraid to get it in, but I must admit that the jam on the turn was impulsive.
If I had flopped a true monster, like top two pair or better, I would feel much better about playing it fast for value, like I did in this hand.
That's certainly what I would advise, although I get the sense that I am in the minority, as usual 
November 4, 2013
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I think seeking to get it in could be good here too, especially with reads to the situation, but my sizing could have used some more purpose and planning. I would imagine that both options can be done effectively.
Foucault (and of course whoever wants to answer) when trying to get it all in by the river while using a smaller size on the flop, as you say, what is the purpose of the smaller size? Is it so when a bad turn hits, like an ace, we then slow down (we change our minds about getting it in) – or is the idea to get more calls from worse hands, especially so that when the turn is good, like an 8, we can continue getting more calls from worse hands (and we don't change our minds about getting it in even when shoved on)?
For example, on this hand, suppose I bet 1800-2000 on the flop, got two calls, and the turn was an Ace, would you keep betting when checked to? Fold to reraises at any time?
I still haven't watched Getting Paid, but I plan on it.
June 24, 2012
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WizardZur said:
I agree that AK would have 3 bet, making KQ TPTK. However, I don't know that I consider TPTK to be a monster.
Its all relative, TPTK on some boards in some situations can be a bluff catcher and in other situations it can be a monster. On this board given the information we know KQ def falls into latter.
icantmtt said:
So we don't mind getting it in since, given opponents wide range, we are ahead more times than we are behind??
Chalk up sets,2p and suck outs to the long run?
Exactly.
WizardZur said:
I agree that the majority of the time you are ahead of your opponent's average range. But I would caution against this reasoning: 1) I am ahead of his average range; 2) Therefore, I jam. What he has in this specific hand is independent of his average range.
There is no way of knowing exactly what hand someone has in a specific situation, given that that person is going to play a number of different hands in the exact same way. Rarely will you be able to put someone on just one hand. That is why we use ranges. We put someone on a range of hands, compare our equity against that range and preceed accordingly. Yes sometimes we are going to run into that small part of his range that beats us but there is nothing you can do about that. If you decide to base your decisions soley on that fact that this, very small part of his range has you beat, you lose huge value against all his other range which is -Ev. -Ev decisions lose you chips, losing chips loses you tournaments.
June 24, 2012
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derSchwartz said:
This is a most helpful discussion.
I do hope to slow down on the turn (check and call) next time this happens as I believe that will be the best way to get value from worse hands while being careful of a situation where I can be badly damaged by either of two players hanging around. I won't be afraid to get it in, but I must admit that the jam on the turn was impulsive.
If I had flopped a true monster, like top two pair or better, I would feel much better about playing it fast for value, like I did in this hand.
Hopefully now you see why this is wrong. But just quickly, you have a hand thats way ahead of his range so you should be looking to get value. Checking and calling is not goin get you value because he would have to turn his hand into a bluff for you get value that way. The answer is bet flop, bet turn and bet river smallist so he calls with weaker hands. That is how to get value.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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derSchwartz said:
I think seeking to get it in could be good here too, especially with reads to the situation, but my sizing could have used some more purpose and planning. I would imagine that both options can be done effectively.
Foucault (and of course whoever wants to answer) when trying to get it all in by the river while using a smaller size on the flop, as you say, what is the purpose of the smaller size? Is it so when a bad turn hits, like an ace, we then slow down (we change our minds about getting it in) – or is the idea to get more calls from worse hands, especially so that when the turn is good, like an 8, we can continue getting more calls from worse hands (and we don't change our minds about getting it in even when shoved on)?
Sorry to be belligerent but I really don't think this is a case where trying to get it in or trying to play a small pot or fold are equally viable options. Given the read on the Villain, getting it in is very clearly preferable. If you don't believe me, put him on a realistic range for stacking off in PokerStove. I'd be shocked if you didn't have well over 50% equity. You have to exploit loose players by value betting when you PROBABLY have the best hand, not just when you're guaranteed to have the best hand. Poker isn't a game of certainty.
To your question, I'm not choosing a smaller size based on the hand you have but based on the situation. A low SPR on a relatively dry flop ought to lead you to use a smaller size with your entire c-betting range.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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icantmtt said:
So we don't mind getting it in since, given opponents wide range, we are ahead more times than we are behind??
Chalk up sets,2p and suck outs to the long run?
yep
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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WizardZur said:
I agree that the majority of the time you are ahead of your opponent's average range. But I would caution against this reasoning: 1) I am ahead of his average range; 2) Therefore, I jam. What he has in this specific hand is independent of his average range. Maybe he would call off in a dominated position here, but I have seen people lay down hands like K2 on boards like that facing an all-in bet. When someone with a wide calling range calls on the flop, indicating a weak pair, and the turn pairs you have to be very careful. They are often calling with weak pairs on a disguised “two-pair or trips draw”. Remember so long as you have a single pair and they have a lower pair that they have 5 outs, which isn't significantly worse than an open-ended straight draw, and is better than a gut shot.
Actually that's pretty much exactly how the reasoning should go (assuming by “average range” you mean his range for stacking off – it's not enough to be ahead of his range for seeing the turn, but if you are ahead of his range for getting it in on the turn, then you want to get it in on the turn, even if you aren't going to win every time). You can't have it both ways. You have no way of knowing which two cards he has this hand. All you know (or can even guess at) is his range. The price of trying to avoid stacking off to the occasional better hand is not getting value from the much more frequent worse hands. If you think he'll fold worse Kings, that's a different matter entirely, and in that case go ahead and check. But if you think your opponents will fold most hands worse than KQ here, you better be bluffing a hell of a lot, because it's awfully hard to have a better hand than KQ. Nothing about Hero's description of this player suggests he is going to fold K2, let alone K8. If he has most dominated Kings plus the occasional better hand in his stack off range, you are making a huge mistake by not getting it in against him.
It's not entirely ridiculous to call the flop with a weak pair, hoping to stack someone who is committed if you hit, which is exactly what he did. Granted, that move is much better the deeper you are. So I would say this situation is somewhat of a “it's hard to get value from worse and he could have better”, although I see that most people disagree. I would just say be careful with certain opponents when the board pairs a bottom or middle pair.
Let's assume Hero shoves the turn 100% of the time. So Villain gets stacks in every time he turns 2p/trips and never puts another penny into the pot if he misses. With 5 outs, he'll improve about 10% of the time. So 90% of the time he loses 2600, and 10% of the time he wins 18727 (Hero's stack plus the size of the pot on the flop plus the third player's flop call). 1872.7 – 2340 = -467.3. That assumes Villain wins 100% of the time that he hits, which isn't even close. Hero has 18% equity if the turn is an off-suit T and 36% equity on the Td, so Villain is actually doing a good deal worse than this. He's also helped substantially by the fact that this is a multi-way pot. Take out the third Villain's 2600, and the call becomes a lot worse. Chasing a two-pair draw is about as bad as chasing a gutshot, which is to say it's pretty bad. Then of course there's the risk that Hero has KT…
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