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June 2, 2013
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I am secong guessing my cbet OTF here, but my main question was on the river, I get a range for V of 77, AQs-A7s, KQs, KTs, QTs, JTs, J7s, T7s+, 98s, AQo-A7o, KQo, KTo, QTo, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, to play with this line, and I am ahead 59.92% of the time; This seems to me as a reraise/fold OTR, thoughts?
Merge, $11 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 10 ante) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 8,627 (86.3 bb)
BB: 7,842 (78.4 bb)
MP: 6,892 (68.9 bb)
Hero (CO): 8,630 (86.3 bb)
BTN: 2,740 (27.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with T
8
MP folds, Hero raises to 200, 2 folds, BB calls 100
Flop: (500) A 7
T
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 250, BB calls 250
Turn: (1,000) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: (1,000) T
(2 players)
BB bets 1,000, Hero calls 1,000? Reraise call? Reraise fold?
TPE Pro
August 4, 2016
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CBet is good here. We usually have the best hand so will win it there a lot. We have plenty of backdoors and are deep enough to withstand a check/raise from villain. The hand is usually much easier to play when we cbet and we do a lot less guessing on future streets.
I’m unsure of your other question. Are you wanting to either raise river, or just fold? I see you just called and I also think that is our best option. It’s a little too thin to raise river here after he pots it imo. I’d expect to only get called by AJ and maybe AK/AQ – just not many worse hands can call a raise. Might sound nitty but folding is okay too. Our hand is probably just a little too strong.
Obviously everyone plays different and has different strategies so facing a pot bet on river can mean any number of things. In general I’d expect to see the top part of his range here but then there’s players that use this size as a bluff. So yeah, I think our hand is right in the middle where I’m just calling, folding being a close 2nd, and probably never raising in this spot.
June 2, 2013
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thedylan186 said
…
I’m unsure of your other question. Are you wanting to either raise river, or just fold? I see you just called and I also think that is our best option. It’s a little too thin to raise river here after he pots it imo. I’d expect to only get called by AJ and maybe AK/AQ – just not many worse hands can call a raise. Might sound nitty but folding is okay too. Our hand is probably just a little too strong.
…
Sorry I was unclear, I was thinking to reraise that 1k bet pot OTR, to something like 2 to 2.4k and fold if V 3bets all in. You are right, I just called here, but was thinking if really was that thin to reraise.
March 24, 2013
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Calling here is better than raising as a default, but it’s a bit closer than I first thought and depends on the opponent’s tendencies. There are 32 straight combos and 19 boat/better trips combos (assuming JJ flats pre). If he’s stationing off with enough of the 123 Ax combos that you beat, raising is +EV. I would expect much of the weaker Ax to bet smaller on the river instead of full pot. It’s a polarized-looking bet, which makes me think less of that Ax is in his range. Despite being polarized, there are probably enough bluffs (Q9, missed clubs) and worse vbets (AJ, AQ) in his range to call getting 2-1.
Another reason not to raise is that your range looks capped; most opponents would expect 2p/sets/straights to bet this turn. Getting b3b bluffed on the river is rare in my MTT experience, but disastrous to the EV of raising.
February 5, 2015
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Wow… Hey Peter… Are you a new pro? Lol
I really feel I should start thinking about combos more than I do. Not to derail the thread but maybe to divert it for a second if I may? When people talk of “having an ace blocker”, are they meaning just that it is less likely villain has an ace, or that by hero having an ace this blocks the probability that villain will draw an ace somewhere down the road on board? Or both? My guess is the former, although I would argue the latter is more than relevant…in fact, my guess is that it means both thinking about it!
February 5, 2015
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I love poker. It is so full of intellectual intricacies! Whatever they are… I couldn’t even spell it, I had to rely on spell checker!
Sorry almo man… I don’t know what the hell I’d do…actually… I’m going to bed!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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River seems like a clear call to me. Maybe I’m overestimating microstakes players, but I don’t see people potting worse for value all that often, and if they are, they really shouldn’t be calling a raise with it. I’m probably overestimating microstrakes players…
Flop also seems to me like a clear check. Of course we have the best hand often, but if anything that’s more of a reason to check, as there’s little value in winning the pot when we have a lot of equity. As for “guessing on future streets”, it shouldn’t be that hard to figure out vs a microstakes player. Worst case scenario, you still don’t have to guess: just try to approximate a balanced bluff-catching strategy, and either V will often check the turn to you (though your EV will approach 0 when he doesn’t) or Villain will bluff too much and you’ll profit.
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