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Set on 3 flush board and a 3bet - Pstars $5 $2kGntd 1000cap

Al29

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January 9, 2015 - 4:45 am

Interesting spot last night – blinds 750/150, 20 ante – villain who is UTG+1 and almost 100BBs deep is running 35/25 over only 20 hands raises to 2.5x, all folds round to hero on button with 70BBs and 33, easy call I think to try and hit a set against what I expect to be a fairly strong range from villain.

Flops comes down all clubs and gives me a set, in game I raise the cbet (his cBet % is 33% but not over many hands) as I figure I may be able to get the money in vs good overpairs containing a club and also don’t want to call and see another club peel off the board. When villain 3 bets I figure I am ahead often enough here to get it in – thoughts?

After some number crunching and allowing villains range one he 3 bets to be AcAx, some KcKx, AcKx, AcQx, AcJx, Ac10x, JcTc, QcJc, KcQc, AcKc, AcQc, KcJc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c I am only a slight favourite against this range but I can’t know this until he 3 bets and I guess he may also 3 bet (to fold?) with a slightly wider range than the above?

Question for you all is at any point do you slow down here, or take a different line to the below? I assume no one is EVER folding at any point? My concern is 70BBs is a lot to get in on a hand that may only be a slight favourite.

Cheers! Al.

PokerStars – $5+$0.50|75/150 Ante 20 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP+1: 8,755.00
LP: 1,657.00
CO: 5,153.00
Hero (BTN): 10,420.00
SB: 5,541.00
BB: 2,035.00
UTG: 7,347.00
UTG+1: 14,376.00
MP: 8,354.00

MP+1 posts ante 20.00, LP posts ante 20.00, CO posts ante 20.00, Hero posts ante 20.00, SB posts ante 20.00, BB posts ante 20.00, UTG posts ante 20.00, UTG+1 posts ante 20.00, MP posts ante 20.00, SB posts SB 75.00, BB posts BB 150.00

Pre Flop: (405.00) Hero has 3 diamond 3 heart

fold, [color=red]UTG+1 raises to 375.00[/color], fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 375.00, fold, fold

Flop: (1155.00, 2 players) 2 club 3 club 5 club
[color=red]UTG+1 bets 450.00[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to 1,200.00[/color], [color=red]UTG+1 raises to 2,700.00[/color], [color=red]Hero raises to 10,025.00 and is all-in[/color], UTG+1 calls 7,325.00

Foucault

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January 9, 2015 - 12:27 pm

I'd rather just call flop. In fact, I may not have a raising range on this flop at all, but even if I did I think it would include sets. As a theoretical matter, you should generally bet/raise your strongest hands and some bluffs for balance. This is not really that strong of a hand, considering how many flushes, straights, and even higher sets are possible. Also you are not much of a favorite at all against the target you mention (overpair with a club has 12 outs).

Think about other hands you'd also call with here. Probably a lot of overpairs, with or without a club, and a lot of overcard + club combos. So it's not like your opponent can easily bluff or thin value bet you even if the turn is a club. When you have the best hand you'll often get a free showdown, and when you don't you'll often get a free shot at boating up on the river.

Al29

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January 10, 2015 - 1:44 pm

Thanks for responding Andrew. All interesting points. I’m still not sure though. I’d rather check call OOP as villains will often happily three barrel with a single club that doesn’t get there. In pos they often slow down so I think I’d still rather get the money in as a slight favourite. From UTG +1 villain does not have that many straights, flushes or better sets here, though when he 3 bets he defo starts to become more weighted towards that range.

If I’d won this hand I would have been chip leader so I don’t mind taking a risk of busting as the times I get the chip lead I have a good chance of a deep finish.

In terms of balance, I don’t worry too much about that at this low buy in level with a 500+ field and when I’m not playing tourneys every day of the week. It’s probably a leak but that’s not to say I wouldn’t ever 2b bluff in this position – perhaps balance becomes more of a thought process when you feel you have more of the game nailed down than I do. It’s like when I play golf, I can overthink all the elements of a good swing but then I realise I’m so far being off Tiger Woods I may as well just line up and crack it. That’s not to say I don’t want to improve at poker but I have so many leveling thoughts going through my head sometimes that I need to remove some of these before steam starts coming out of my ears and my tiny brain frazzles to a crisp.

Foucault

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January 10, 2015 - 3:30 pm

“In pos they often slow down so I think I’d still rather get the money in as a slight favourite.”

When you say “rather”, what are you comparing this to? You can always bet the turn if your opponent doesn’t, that’s the magic of position. Plus you have the opportunity to make much better than barely +EV decisions on future streets.

Forget that I mentioned balance. All I’m saying is that it’s generally correct to raise your strongest hands and/or some of your weakest hands, but not usually the stuff in between, which is what you have.

Al29

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January 23, 2015 - 5:28 am

Checking flop still doesn't make much sense to me Andrew – trips here is one of my strongest hands and I can expect worse hands with Ac or Kc to call here which I'm a 2 to 1 favourite against. I could keep other weaker hands in such as AxQc, AxJc by checking, but then I'm not charging the Ac, Kc hands to draw.

Or are you happy with the bet when checked to, but you are saying you would only call his 3 bet with trips, and only raise with a made flush (strongest hands) with the hope to get it in and perhaps medium pairs (weaker hands) which you would then fold to a flop 3bet?

Foucault

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January 23, 2015 - 12:42 pm

I'm saying I would bet if checked to, but call rather than raise given that Villain bet flop. Generally it's best to raise a polarized range: hands that have enough equity that you're eager to get it in (NOT the case here – you have enough equity that you COULD, but you aren't really a strong favorite when that happens) or hands whose equity will be poor enough against his 3b range that you have an easy fold.

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