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November 28, 2015
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WPN, 400/800 blinds, 100 ante No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 46,410 (58 bb)
Hero (BB): 21,541 (26.9 bb)
UTG+2: 21,648 (27.1 bb)
MP1: 23,494 (29.4 bb)
MP2: 34,247 (42.8 bb)
MP3: 12,240 (15.3 bb)
CO: 2,285 (2.9 bb)
BTN: 2,619 (3.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 5
UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls 800, 4 folds, SB completes, Hero checks
Flop: (3,200) 2 9 Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,600, MP1 calls 1,600, SB calls 1,600
Turn: (8,000) 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks
River: (8,000) Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 4,000, 2 folds
Results: 8,000 pot
Final Board: 2 9 Q 8 Q
SB mucked and lost (-2,500 net)
Hero mucked 3 5 and won 8,000 (5,500 net)
MP1 mucked and lost (-2,500 net)
anything to add to this? maybe don’t do it? what do you guys think?
February 8, 2017
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I’m not sure what you’re trying to accomplish by betting the flop. Players that habitually limp tend to find any excuse to call flops. I can’t think of a single card that we’re happily barreling on the turn, I think a non-heart 4 is the best we can hope for. I’d prefer to raise the limpers preflop with 53o rather than lead this flop, but I’m not recommending either play.
The Q-8 rule is an old heuristic for flop bluffing, and although it is less nuanced than modern strategies, I think it is still worth knowing. It comes up most often when we are the preflop raiser considering whether or not to cbet, but its relevant against limpers too. Limping and flatting ranges tend to include a lot of middling cards, so when there are two cards on the flop between Q and 8 we should be somewhat less inclined to bluff.
Despite not liking the flop bet, once the turn checks through I like the river bet. MP player probably bets most Queens on the turn, SB probably bets them on the river, so we’re unlikely to be facing trips. We’re probably getting called by most 9s, and also run into some slowplayed flushes, but I think this gets through often enough to be profitable. We’re obviously never winning with 5 high, so good on you for finding a way to take it down.
November 28, 2015
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Let’s look at what the flop bet accomplished. By taking the lead we are rep. something. We could be rep. Flush, Two P. Top P. or a drw. So, as Brokos explains in his hand reading series; a monster, marginal, or air.
When both villains call my 1/2 pot bet what are they rep? If they are slow playing a monster, so be it. We will def. find out by the turn. so we don’t know yet. More likely they are rep. something marginal or air. We will also find out more by the river.
On the turn, the SB checks: either a monster, marginal, or complete air but we won’t know for sure until the river. When I check, I am rep Marginal or Air but they wont know until they call me down on the river or even better, they raise me. When MP1 checks, he might be slow playing a monster which I doubt because most would be betting here but even if they don’t bet they are making a mistake. Could still be a marginal hand and wants to get to show down cheaply, but we will know for sure on the river. could also be air.
Now, when SB checks I bet 1/2 pot(33%) we know for 100% they had marginal/air hands. IF they had marginal hands, something like 32 even, it’s a mistake to fold. It’s even a mistake to fold A7o.
By betting the flop we were able to rep. something better than blank cards and to get our opponents to make a mistake for folding by the river.
February 8, 2017
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No doubt, betting the flop allows us to rep something, but we still need to be selective about when we choose to do so. My point was not that betting doesn’t accomplish anything, but that both the board texture and our hand seem like the wrong ingredients for a good flop bet.
As mentioned above, I quite like the river bet.
November 28, 2015
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I know what you mean. You said “not sure what we are trying to accomplish by betting the flop”. I just explained that. If we didn’t bet the flop, would it be a more believable river bet? Maybe, maybe not.
I feel like we should be looked up a lot wider if we check flop, check turn, bet river. Well maybe in different levels. In a freeroll, I’m sure I could have sneezed and they would have folded no matter, but I think firing two barrels was key.
November 28, 2015
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Also, what if they folded if I had checked flop, bet turn? or Checked flop, checked turn, bet river? We def. got more value in those cases.
February 8, 2017
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I think you’ll have more success bluffing in these scenarios by checking the flop and barrelling both turn and river if flop checks through. I fully agree that you’re way more likely to win the pot by putting two bets in than simply taking a shot at the river. A word of caution though, our goal as winning players is not to win every pot. Finding ways to win pots that we have no business winning is important, but trying to do that too often is a slippery slope that can lead to spewing off a lot of chips.
November 28, 2015
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yes, of course. I mean, picture this hand if one variable changed preflop: Where MP raises instead of limping… the dealer would be the only one that might know where our hand is in the muck pile.
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