March 29, 2016
I think there is one very important question you’d have to ask yourself on the flop : what is a good turn card for me?
Probably there is none. Ok, maybe another K or non-spade 7. But that still doesn’t help you much as villain could have higher K or better 2 pair.
Even though the villain is playing loosely, I’m folding this flop 100%.
February 8, 2017
Preflop and flop seem standard to me, I don’t think I’m ever folding or raising either street. I don’t like folding to future bets as a general rule, but if villain has been barreling relentlessly then I guess you could make an argument for a very tight fold on the flop, because there are very few run-outs that K7 is happy calling down on.
I think you are correct that the turn check-raise was a mistake. It’s understandable to want to protect your pair against all the possible draws, but I don’t think villain has as many draws as you might imagine. To have a flush draw villain needs to have an off-suit preflop hand, and a huge chunk of villain’s off-suit cutoff range has a pair on this flop. Similarly, a lot of gut-shots will also have a pair on this board. Even very aggro villains are likely to check back a hand like JT on either the flop or turn, with or without the J.
I think it’s often wrong to fold second pair to a turn barrel when the top card pairs, but boards with 3 Broadway cards are harder to miss and harder to bluff. I strongly prefer folding turn but, if you are continuing, I think calling with a plan to call most rivers is best. This keeps villain’s range as wide as possible, and you will definitely catch some bluffs. Check-raising for protection means you are forcing weak draws to fold some equity, but also denying yourself what may be a profitable river bluff-catch opportunity. The range that calls your check-raise has you crushed.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Everything up until turn is fine, but turn is ugly. You’re just going to be faced with so many awkward river decisions that I think it has to be a fold. You have plenty of better bluff-catchers in your range – you do have some Ax, you have some pair+spade hands, and this hand is reasonably close to the bottom of your range in terms of equity.
I think the check-jam is a huge punt, honestly. Your hand is a bluff-catcher, and there’s no reason to check-jam a bluff-catcher into a polarized range. Villain folds all his bluffs and snaps you with all his value.
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