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August 20, 2015
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(Actually fourth nuts as two straight flushes were possible…)
I didn’t know what to do here and want to get some thoughts please, both for limping this on the button given the player dynamics, and the river play.
£25 (+10 rebuy) live tournament. Blinds 500/1000(100).
Full of fishy recreational players and only a few competent players.
I am on the button. There’s an MP limp from a loose player who loves his broadways and connected hands but is not that great a player (calls 30bb shoves with KJo, for example) and a cutoff is a somewhat more decent player but still not someone I’d call a great player, who also limps. These guys also love to limp call 4x and even 5x raises.
I have 20 big blinds and have J
K on the button. I am scared of raising because like I said, these guys love to limp call and a raise makes the pot anything from 10bb to 16bbs depending on if SB and BB also call. With such low SPR I don’t see much post flop maneuverability. Online I am sure I 4x or 4.5x JKs on the button in this spot, but I have to adjust to the live players here, right?
Anyway, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop is 9
T3 – checked by all.
Turn brings 6
MP bets 3000. Called by cutoff and I am thinking this is definitely a call with gutshot and second nut flush draw.
SB folds, I call.
Three ways to river, which is 5 giving me K flush.
MP then bets out 5100 and cutoff thinks a few seconds then just flats. I have second nuts here and my thinking is that if I just call and lose to either of these guys having nut flush, I am left with around 12 bigs and can play shove or fold, but if I reraise here I risk my tournament life if one of them has it, so I make what feels like a very passive play with K flush and just call. There are 9 combos of hands that beat me – the suited aces and the two straight flushes – but it is the suited aces that I am worried about. At this table, people are playing 82s and 96s to a 4x raise, so any suited ace is obviously also in these guys’ ranges.
What do you think of this line?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I just shove pre vs the described players.
I also bet flop, and I’m surprised that you didn’t, given that “post-flop maneuverability” was your reason for not raising pre, and now you are not taking advantage of your position when you do actually see a decent flop with money behind.
Turn is fine. River I agree is close. I don’t think you really have to worry about CO having you beat. You are considering the likelihood of someone having better hand, which of course is important, but it’s only half of the equation. How likely are worse hands that would look you up? The number of BBs you’ll have left is a minor consideration, compared to the expected value of shoving, and you can only calculate the latter by considering the ratio of better:worse hands that will call a shove.
August 20, 2015
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Wow, you don’t think 20BBs is just on the too large side for a shove here?
I didn’t want to bet that flop given that I had a gutshot and I am happy to take a free card here and see what the turn brings. I was OK with being fit or fold given stack size and the turn was, of course, exactly the kind of turn I wanted.
My thinking about betting flop is I am putting out maybe 3 big blinds – what do I do to a check raise? Just fold. With one or more callers here I am with again a larger pot to play with 2 streets to come. (I may well be off, but just describing my thinking here to answer your question)
It’s very much just thinking about my stack and trying to improve on turn, really. I saw that as more valuable then betting that flop…?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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BadAstronaut said
Wow, you don’t think 20BBs is just on the too large side for a shove here?
If you’re not convinced, do some math. Show me some limping ranges and some calling ranges, figure out how often the shove will be called, and how much equity you’ll have when called.
I didn’t want to bet that flop given that I had a gutshot and I am happy to take a free card here and see what the turn brings.
Well, you’d also be pretty happy to win the pot immediately, right? In all likelihood, you’ll still get to see the next card even if you don’t win right away.
I was OK with being fit or fold given stack size and the turn was, of course, exactly the kind of turn I wanted
Was it? I don’t think you make that much money in this turn spot. I imagine your EV is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1BB.
My thinking about betting flop is I am putting out maybe 3 big blinds – what do I do to a check raise? Just fold.
OK, but how often do you think you will be check-raised? You’re right that that’s the worst case scenario, but try to put a number on it.
With one or more callers here I am with again a larger pot to play with 2 streets to come. (I may well be off, but just describing my thinking here to answer your question)?
How much do you lose if you bet and are called? In other words, give someone a calling range, and look at your equity vs that range. What you lose is the difference between .5 and your equity vs that range, times the size of the bet.
August 20, 2015
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OK, this is going to take me a while to respond to, but I am going to try work through it to see if I can figure this out.
(It’s not about not convinced in the slightest… I just hardly think about poker like this at all…)
February 20, 2015
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Agree with Andrew’s points. Just want to confirm the other stacks. Specifically, are you the short stack in this hand vs the other 2?
August 20, 2015
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Yes – but not by a long shot. MP has a very big stack in relation, probably over 50bbs CO and myself covered, CO would be on just a few big blinds so can also be considered ‘short’ as he was likely on 25ish bigs.
I’m prepping for my honeymoon and poker not been much focus over the lats few days, so I have not touched the math I want to do on this piece as Andrew suggested.
August 20, 2015
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OK, I am back and very keen to get to the bottom of this now. I don’t even know where to begin with this though:
“If you’re not convinced, do some math. Show me some limping ranges and some calling ranges, figure out how often the shove will be called, and how much equity you’ll have when called.”
Which software should I be using here – is software even necessary? Is there a series that can help me out here?
May 26, 2016
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BadAstronaut said
OK, I am back and very keen to get to the bottom of this now. I don’t even know where to begin with this though:“If you’re not convinced, do some math. Show me some limping ranges and some calling ranges, figure out how often the shove will be called, and how much equity you’ll have when called.”
Which software should I be using here – is software even necessary? Is there a series that can help me out here?
You must have spent some time with those 2 on same table, so you had a pretty good guess on how likely they would be calling your x4 x5 x6 raise, but how likely would they call your shove when they both limped. Only legit hand you are awfully behind because one of them(or both) were trapping you will be AA, KK. All the rest of hand(realistically) you aren’t much behind. so your math will be (P means probability)
P(fold) * Chips won(ICM) + P(called and lose) * Chips win(ICM)(this must be -) + P(called and win) * Chips won(ICM)
August 20, 2015
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OK cool, so how do we determine Chips won(ICM) ?
Why Chips won(ICM) and not just Chips won?
May 19, 2016
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I am only able to play live tournaments, except via ClubWPt, which incidentally I really like.
The only advice I’ve read Foucault give has been excellent, and in this case is trying to get you to do the work on the numbers yourself as I see you are doing, very thought provoking that Foucault. In so doing you’ll not only not forget the scenario but you’ll learn how to go through the thought process and become a better player. After all if we are just told the knowledge we won’t know how to derive it for ourselves and never become a better player. BadAstro the University coarse here on TPE is very good, it will do anybody justice, pro to novice to watch. Even the smallest tidbit of info could take us to the next level.
Honestly It has already helped me quite a bit.
I see what you did via your post. I would give #’s but will tell what I would do at each point as I am a live play and this was a live game.
As a MP only calls pre I would have put out 4500 (a 3 bet(3 X the big blind, plus 1 BB for every limper, plus SB))
It was stated that MP would call such a raise so your almost sure to get action, if not you’ll collect the 3500 already out there, being in position, and being the one that put the raise out there more than likely it’ll check around to you.
If it does we’d have a free card or we could make a Cbet, with what I know, I’d Cbet.
If somebody calls and we make it to the turn, we have 12 outs, if we took the free card it may induce a bluff, or they actually may have the best hand right now. If we are bet into, a shove is my choice. If it is checked to us I again would Cbet.
After the river has come up I can only see 3 hands that beat us. Ax(only one over card but many x, to me this is only one hand just many iterations of the same one), 24, and 47. I shove. Odd for someone else to have the same suit ()hold cards is about 3%, and somebody making a straight flush by the river is only 1 in 43316.
Of Coarse everything I said is dependent on table dynamics, and tournament dynamics.
Was it early in tournament, mid-tournament, close to the bubble, past the bubble?
If it is like a local game here I’d say it started with around 200 people (prob. less) with many reburying like 10 times just trying to get a large stack to go on to later stages (10 rebuy is cheap). Once rebuy period is over most people will tighten up and some of those fish aren’t fish.
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