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Scoop-M facing donk and riv bet ITM
Gareth Chantler
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May 20, 2013 - 5:35 am
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Villain is playing 18/9 over just 10 hands. We are in the money, slow structure. He is a losing recreational player, average cash is 10$ ish but he recently had a big score for 11k last week, hence him playing this, one assumes. Haven't seen him play a hand before. 

 

Fold flop? Bet turn? River? Open shove pre? Ok well some of those are serious questions

Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1250/t2500 Blinds + t325 – 9 players – View hand 2215456
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: BB = 34.6, t86572
MP1: BB = 88.7, t221802
MP2: BB = 14.5, t36249
CO: BB = 45.8, t114547
Hero (BTN): BB = 27.6, t68902
SB: BB = 40.9, t102178
BB: BB = 17.6, t43891
UTG: BB = 32.6, t81471
UTG+1: BB = 14.7, t36633

Pre Flop: (t6675) Hero is BTN with T of diamonds T of hearts
6 folds, Hero raises to t5000, 1 fold, BB calls t2500

Flop: (t14175) 4 of clubs A of hearts 9 of spades (2 players)
BB bets t7500, Hero calls t7500

Turn: (t29175) A of spades (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t29175) 8 of diamonds (2 players)
BB bets t15000, Hero ?

danrose29
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May 20, 2013 - 9:00 am
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if hes a losing player does that mean hes less likely to be bluffing here? ive been in these spots many times and never know what to do, seems like tough spot maybe he flatted ace rag in blinds maybe its bluff or worse pair not sure

FkCoolers
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May 20, 2013 - 9:02 am
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Well, we basically have the worst pocket pair. Villain should probably never take this line with a pair lower than TT which doesn't have a boat by the end. 

We know bad players defend with any Ax and like to bet to find out where they are at, etc. 

I think based on his stack size I probably play it passively as you did and shrug/fold river because we really have no evidence that supports this player playing 9x this way and it seems pretty hopeful to think he would. 

Gareth Chantler
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May 20, 2013 - 2:10 pm
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yeah I really like that reasoning Coolers. I agree with you 100% — so wonder if there are dissenting opinions in this spot. and like, what if he bet 9k? or shoved?

Al29
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May 20, 2013 - 2:18 pm
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It's a tough spot but after calling the flop I think I'd be tempted to pop out a bet on the turn when the A hits, he could have Ax and be checking because he hit his FH on the turn but he could also have called PF from the BB and bet the flop with 89 9J 9Q suited type hands, and when the A hits it reduces the chance of him having one in his hand. I'd 1/3 bet the turn and be done with it if I see any more action but in play if I was in stack preservation mode I might just go with what FKCoolers said. I guess we can discount JJ+ here as he would have shoved PF unless he was super tricky so it's either Ax or 9x? If so then with more likely PF calling combos of Ax over 9x perhaps a check fold is preferable.

packallama
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May 20, 2013 - 3:28 pm
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I would usually play the hand the same way up to the river. I might value bet turn 33% to 40% and even value bet river on good rivers such as this one. 

After checking back the turn, i think that we are getting a good enough price to call the river. We may not be good 50% of the time, but we only have to be good at least 34% of the time to make this a break-even call. I think he value bets enough 9x and can show up with total air sometimes. When thinking about how many combos of Ax vs 9x we have to consider the fact that there are two aces left and three nines. We also have to consider he is peeling out of the big blind vs a button open. This allows him to have a ton of 9x such as K9-98 and more suited combos as well. We should expect him to 3b at least AJ+ here in order to get it in preflop so that reduces the combos of Ax in his range. Take into account that he can have just total air leading the flop trying to take it down, folding river seems ridiculous.  

Had he bet smaller, I would snap it off expecting 9x more often than Ax. If he had bet bigger, I would usually fold to this line, but could find a hero call with reads. 

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