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Satellite ICM Question. On booblie prize cash bubble with QQ and micro stack has been called

Hamishk

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November 19, 2015 - 3:09 pm

Played in a $120 satellite with 5 players gaining entry to a $500 satellite to Auckland’s main event. 6th gets $100

7 left. Micro stack UTG with 0.5 BB shoves.

7th gets nothing. 6th gets $100. Five players get $500 satellite tickets

UTG+1 raises to 3200 (blinds 800/1600. No Antes)

I am MP with QQ and am next short stack with 3500 chips. Two big stacks. Lots of smallish stacks but I am clearly next short stack to be threatened

Several big stacks to my left. With biggest stack being in BB and has already tried to bust players out by calling with loose hands.

If I shove I am definitely being called by UTG+1 and I am 95% certain I will be called by BB with any two cards

If I fold I am probably guaranteed the $100 but will shortly be into the blinds and will be down to under 1 BB if I fold my blinds.

Fold or shove?

Foucault

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November 19, 2015 - 8:35 pm

For some reason my HRC isn’t working at the moment, but I’m quite curious to know the results. Hamish, can you provide more detail about the exact stack sizes and positions of each other stack, as best you can remember? And then can someone with a working HRC crunch the numbers?

Thanks!

Hamishk

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November 20, 2015 - 12:34 am

Andrew,

as best I can remember.

Blinds 800/1600

UTG micro stack had 800 chips

UTG+1 9000 chips

I had 3500 chips

From memory 4 to act. (CO / BTN, SB and BB)

BB had around 40,000 chips

One stack around 20,000

Two others around 8 – 10,000

24 entries with starting stacks of 4000 = total chips in play = 96000

AlPike

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November 20, 2015 - 5:34 pm

Hi Hamish and Andrew,

Just played about with HRC to see what I could get. it obviously says that UTG+1 shouldn’t be min raising at all here but figures we have are:

UTG Calls all in 47.8% of hands 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K3o+ Q2s+ Q8o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 76s

+1 Shoves (but lets call it min raise here if we can…) 8.1% 99+ A9s+ ATo+ KQs

We call (or reshove) 3% JJ+, AKs AKo

QQ is a +1.01 call (and the ICM calc is on prize pool not BB/Chip EV, so I think this is a fist pump shove

Interestingly, when I run it with +1 min raising that same range, JJ comes out of our calling range and QQ is a +0.71 call, still getting it in, UTGs calling range also goes up 6% if he knows +1 is only going to min raise.

BB is calling 100%, SB should be shoving 50%

Hamishk

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November 21, 2015 - 12:36 am

Thanks for the information. Appreciate the reply.

For the results oriented.

I shoved.

BB called.

UTG+1 could only call and not raise.

Flop came 5 club 3 heart 5 spade

BB checked

UTG+1 shoved

BB said “Huh? I call” and called with 5 heart 2 club

UTG had A-10 suited

UTG+1 had A-3 off

I didn’t improve and came 6th

I’ve seen people with stacks as dominant as the BB’s was fold in this scenario and then later say “I would have won”. The guy in the BB is one of the few who I regularly play with who is always going to call in this scenario and is unafraid to lose less than 10% of his stack to potentially knock two players out. Where as other players will look down at 52o and muck it.

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