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River Value Bet OOP $55 Marathon
DuckinDaDeck
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September 5, 2018 - 12:05 pm
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I think we have to go for value on the river, but sizing is my question. Am I aiming the get called by some A highs or should I target only 77-TT, a few sixes and worse Jacks? I can see reasons to size anywhere from 25-60% pot.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 30 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

dmc.1m (UTG+1): 41.68 BB
Arkesilas289 (MP): 35.75 BB
hannoah (MP+1): 136.66 BB
Sorjak (MP+2): 28 BB
DonKiShove (CO): 67.53 BB
ceoquocvu (BTN): 46.6 BB
CiTral6077 (SB): 62.58 BB
EatMyFish (BB): 51.05 BB
neverfoldQ5 (UTG): 39.61 BB

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, CiTral6077 posts SB 0.5 BB, EatMyFish posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) EatMyFish has Qspade Jdiamond

fold, fold, fold, fold, Sorjak raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, EatMyFish calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.4 BB, 2 players) 6spade Jheart 5diamond
EatMyFish checks, Sorjak bets 1.84 BB, EatMyFish calls 1.84 BB

Turn: (9.07 BB, 2 players) Kdiamond
EatMyFish checks, Sorjak checks

River: (9.07 BB, 2 players) Kheart
EatMyFish bets ?

Maniackid11
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September 5, 2018 - 3:04 pm
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If I’m villain here, I doubt I would call anything more than 1/3 pot bet with Ace high and probably fold to that sizing with my Ace highs. I think (and I’m stealing this line from RonFezBuddy) the saying “we probably wont get called by worse” applies here.

So to answer your first question, I do think we are aiming for the 77-TT assuming your opponent plays those hands from this position. Since I am villain in this scenario for convo sake, I usually don’t play 77 or 88, it’s 99+ for me.

With 99 and TT I could find the call button facing 1/4-1/3 pot bet on river but your lead would look pretty strong/valuey and I think I should be aware that you are capable of having some sort of JT, maybe J9, JQ but would make a crying call knowing that I am probably beat a lot. Any bigger and my hand is McMuckin.

IDK I kinda like a check/call here because what if he raises your river bet of 1/4-1/3 to 3x? What do you plan to do? Also, if you make it 1/2-2/3 and he raises you, what’s your play then? More often you are ahead by the river and in that case I don’t see you getting much more value than 1/4-1/3 by anything less than pkt 77-TT and he’s folding everything else that’s worse.

Maniackid11
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September 5, 2018 - 3:05 pm
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***So yes, 77-TT with 25-33% sizing.

Foucault

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September 5, 2018 - 4:00 pm
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This is an easy value bet. If you get raised, you deal with it, but it won’t happen often. Your range is much less capped than V’s after the turn action. I say go big here as well, at least 60% if not bigger. You are pretty close to the top of your range, and you have plenty of missed draws available to balance a bigger bet:

Maniackid11
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September 5, 2018 - 8:47 pm
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Drew, when you say “go big here””60%+” are you implying that we are hoping for a call from the Ace highs, and 77-TT? Ahh I see now what you’re saying. Wow, that just opened my eyes a lot. I think I’ve been missing out on a lot more value in these spots in the past. DUUUDE! Sweet. I love this forum. It’s like walking into a dark room and flipping the switch…. LIGHTS ON BABY!!

Thanks boys.

DuckinDaDeck
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September 5, 2018 - 9:18 pm
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Foucault said
This is an easy value bet. If you get raised, you deal with it, but it won’t happen often. Your range is much less capped than V’s after the turn action. I say go big here as well, at least 60% if not bigger. You are pretty close to the top of your range, and you have plenty of missed draws available to balance a bigger bet:  

Yea basically mandatory value bet, but I’m a bit surprised by the sizing recommendation. Not to say I question the merits of sizing up, but this is one of the things I’ve been struggling with conceptually since moving back up to play the $55s regularly. I think I’ve picked up the habit of expecting people to play too much based on the absolute value of their hand, rather than expecting them to be thinking in terms of their range vs my range. As you say, I’ll have a lot of flop peels that want to bluff this river, so I can go much larger than I would against a player who is playing more like the lower stakes regs.

For example, in this hand, I bet ~30% pot and got called by a 6. My initial reaction was to fist-pump because “I sized well and got a weak hand to pay me.” Once I actually reflected on the hand, I started to think I missed value not only in this particular spot but especially vs. villain’s range as a whole. I think I make these mistakes very often.

Maniackid11 said
IDK I kinda like a check/call here because what if he raises your river bet of 1/4-1/3 to 3x? What do you plan to do? Also, if you make it 1/2-2/3 and he raises you, what’s your play then? More often you are ahead by the river and in that case I don’t see you getting much more value than 1/4-1/3 by anything less than pkt 77-TT and he’s folding everything else that’s worse.  

I think check/calling this river is a very common and very costly mistake. Aside from some unlikely slowplays, villain may only have AJ and QQ that beat us, we block them both, and I think both of those hands should bet the turn more often than not. We can get called by a lot of hands that would otherwise be thrilled to get a free showdown. Missing value bets like this one is almost as costly as making a bad river call. In fact, because it happens more often for most decent players, it’s probably a bigger leak than habitually calling too wide.

If we were to face a raise it would be a difficult decision. It’s really hard to put villain on many hands that are strong enough to raise for value. I could see KTs and probably K9s opening from HJ and pot controlling the turn, but that’s only 4 combos. I think QQ might be a good raise too, but I’m not giving many villains credit for going that thin. I’d be tempted to get pretty stubborn here.

Maniackid11
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September 5, 2018 - 11:02 pm
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“Missing value bets like this one is almost as costly as making a bad river call. In fact, because it happens more often for most decent players, it’s probably a bigger leak than habitually calling too wide.”

Dude this is such a sick realization for me for the simple fact that I was not even remotely aware of this leak of mine. I can’t even explain in words the amount of value I feel I got from this hand discussion and what Drew said. At first, I was kinda annoyed, thinking “well what does he expect, if we bet too big we are missing value from weaker hands that would call” until I thought about what he was actually saying, because I almost always go for the thin value here in fear that betting to big would push weaker hands off the call button…Drew, you are the man. Thank you a million! and DDD so are you for posting this hand. I have to admit I really do value what you say, almost as much as the value Drew just left me!

Sick fellas, thanks again.

DuckinDaDeck
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September 6, 2018 - 12:05 am
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Happy to help Maniac. The energy and questions you’ve brought to the forums recently have given me extra motivation to study and learn. Great timing too, instead of zoning out to video games or Netflix between sessions of grinding 10+ hrs a day during this WCOOP, so far I’ve been excitedly reviewing hands and watching training material. Improving at poker is a constant process, we all benefit from sharing and discussing ideas. Cheers mate.

Maniackid11
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September 6, 2018 - 12:21 am
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YES! I am happy to hear this. I too have been putting in the extra time studying recently on top of the countless hours of micro grinding. I have to say, between you and Brokos, the amount I have learned from you guys in the past few days has been tremendous.

I just started Drews latest video series right after posting on this hand and it was like BOOM! Right on point. The dude is awesome. Checked out his podcast too, didn’t get to finish it but I am looking forward to those for sure. Def. going to be scrolling  TPE U. to search for all his video series. Looking forward to that and chatting with you! laugh

Cheers bro.

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