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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy River overbet bluff, spew or not?

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River overbet bluff, spew or not?

kmid

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July 13, 2016 - 1:19 pm

First hand I’ve shared so please let me know if there is anything I’m doing wrong, could not get the HH converter working.
In game this seemed like a good spot to overbet bluff. I thought this sizing should fold out a lot of Ax which should make up a large part of villains range given the action so far. Was analysing in a GTO solver and it never overbets river given the choice and also does not bluff with this hand which makes me feel less confident about the play. Would appreciate some feedback from the community, am I just spewing here?

PokerStars – $30+$3|75/150 Ante 20 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1 (MP+1): 93.33 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 8.96, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 70)
CO (CO): 63.17 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 20)
BTN (BTN): 33.41 BB (VPIP: 19.57, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 47)
Hero (SB): 36.41 BB
BB (BB): 23.07 BB (VPIP: 8.70, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 47)
UTG (UTG): 35.05 BB (VPIP: 25.53, PFR: 17.02, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
UTG+1 (UTG+1): 32.27 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
MP (MP): 72.78 BB (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 41)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:8 club 6 club

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop (6.07 BB, 2 players):5 heart 8 heart T heart

Hero checks, MP+1 checks

Turn (6.07 BB, 2 players):J diamond

Hero checks, MP+1 checks

River (6.07 BB, 2 players):A club

Hero bets 12 BB

almofadinhas

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July 13, 2016 - 2:58 pm

86s On the SB I just fold pre, the BB have about 23bb, and will be a good pot from BB to squeeze all in sometimes. Also you are not closing the action, and you have worst odds on SB than BB to call and play oop.

As played I like to lead turn, for about 50% pot, if called I probably go for check fold OTR, there will be some Jx Ahx and some str8 draws like 9x, Qx, some AJ AQ and AK, I don´t see worst hands calling another barrel OTR, but most worst hands will give you a cheap showdown.

I don´t like the overbet coming from nowhere.

kmid

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July 13, 2016 - 5:57 pm

Thanks for the response almofadinhas.

I don’t think BB will be 3 bet shoving that often at all, he has stats of 9/4 over 47 hands. Appreciate that it’s a small sample but with stats that nitty he’s not gonna be the type to be taking advantage of good squeeze spots. It’s definitely at the bottom of my calling range, I’m not calling 75s, and I fold if BB is aggressive. However I think it plays well enough to be a profitable call.

I’m not sure if you are suggesting value betting or bluffing turn. Little merit in betting for protection either as he will call with most hands we would like to protect against. Seems like we would be well behind his calling range and ahead of his folding range which makes it a great candidate to check. Also we have far better hands to bet for both value and bluffs in our sb calling range here.

Why don’t you like the overbet? What does “coming from nowhere” mean? Are you suggesting we should never have a check, check overbet range in general? If so why?

Sorry for so many questions, just interested in the reasoning behind playing the hand so differently from me.

Foucault

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July 14, 2016 - 4:14 am

I fold pre-flop, guess it’s somewhat close. I agree that betting turn doesn’t accomplish much. Turn just needs to be a check fold.

The reason there’s no overbetting range here is that the Hero doesn’t have enough of a nuts advantage to warrant it. Overbetting tends to arise in spots where you have significantly more nuts than your opponent does plus enough bluffs that you can give him a difficult decision any time he has a non-nut hand. I don’t think that holds here. Doesn’t necessarily mean overbetting isnt’ good for exploitive reasons.

That said, you do have some shred of showdown equity here, and you have no blockers, and overall this is probably a better card for V’s range than yours, so again I’m not surprised that an equilibrium strategy doesn’t involve bluffing this.

kmid

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July 14, 2016 - 8:20 am

Update, I had made a mistake and only allowed villain the option of splitting his betting sizes on the river so my tree was wrong. When I correctly built the tree Piosolver does actually choose to overbet bluff the river as hero with 8c6c.

Thanks Foucault, I actually though about overbetting here for the exact reasons you listed. I thought that we have a nuts advantage as villain’s range is capped from the action where as we can have several flush and straight combos. We also don’t have many non-showdown value bluffs as the board should hit an sb calling range a lot so our bluffs have to consist of the few non pair hands we have (K9s, 76s) and our weakest showdown hands (22,33,44.54s,86s) that we would not have bet the turn with.

BadAstronaut

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July 14, 2016 - 11:45 am

How do we define “a nuts advantage” as used here? It’s a new term for me.

Foucault

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July 14, 2016 - 12:08 pm

BA,

It means one player has more “nut” hands than the other. Doesn’t have to mean literally the nuts, just hands good enough to be ahead of opponent’s calling range even for a big bet. I’ve used the term “monster” in other contexts.

KM,

Interesting. I guess it makes sense that Hero is rarely without a pair on this texture given the strength of pre-flop calling range. It’s less obvious to me why Hero would have more flushes than Villain. Both players would have to have checked a flush twice to get to the river with one. I guess Hero’s flop check is less limiting than the other checks. I’d expect V to have more KQ. Would be interested to see your Pio input. thanks for posting this.

almofadinhas

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July 14, 2016 - 12:57 pm

kmid said
…
I’m not sure if you are suggesting value betting or bluffing turn. Little merit in betting for protection either as he will call with most hands we would like to protect against. Seems like we would be well behind his calling range and ahead of his folding range which makes it a great candidate to check. Also we have far better hands to bet for both value and bluffs in our sb calling range here.
…

More like a bluff, my bet OTT, V may have check with monsters, or he has nothing, I don´t like much the line to check again and give up, a small bet can take the pot OTT. If called we have 4 clean outs, and V might check behind river with missed str8s, I think he would bet a flush draw OTF. Betting turn, check folding river.

kmid said
…
Why don’t you like the overbet? What does “coming from nowhere” mean? Are you suggesting we should never have a check, check overbet range in general? If so why?
…

I don´t like to overbet here because V has monster or has nothing, I don´t think there is much marginal hands the he want to showdown cheap, probably low PP, a bet pot has the same effect, V will fold his weak hands, and maybe reraise his monsters.

There is some cases to overbet, I do sometimes, but not often. Most usual when the effective stacks are too deep, and i want to go all in, there is draws; or V likes to hero call… I don´t do much actually.