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River gives me boat but still not sure I should raise
TheClubber
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June 20, 2015 - 3:21 pm
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Final 4 tables of a $350 live tournament with 300 entries. 

Villain is one of the two most aggressive at the table. He's been 3-betting almost everyone rather than call any raise. He has about 100K with blinds at 1500/3000/400

Hero has monster stack of 300K playing fairly solid and slightly conservative given my chip advantage

7-handed. Hero raises UTG to 6500 with TT. Villain considers before flatting in SB. BB calls

Flop (22K) AA3r checks through.

Turn K. Villain bets 10K. BB folds. Hero calls

River (42K) T Villain bets 21K with 70K behind.

So I caught my miracle river, but AK and AT (and less likely KK and AA) are in vllain's range. He is also betting twice into the one player that has him covered What's my best option – call, raise/fold, raise/call or shove?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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June 20, 2015 - 8:56 pm
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pretty sick but this looks like a bad beat lol 😛

 

I doubt AK is in villians range as for AA/KK that's just even more unlikely IMO, he's very likely to 3-bet these hands OOP. As for AT , you block so many combo's of that. I'd shove here hoping to get called by AQ/AJs and trips Ax

Rok
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June 21, 2015 - 7:44 am
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I dont think he has AK here, because I dont see a reason that he just calls it OOP if he is aggressive, same goes to AT I think. I guess AA and KK are more likely to be played like this if BB is also aggro. Seems more like QJ, QT, KJ, KT type of hands where he can call it OOP.

 

I would c-bet flop for sure. If you called turn I am not sure why you have have doubts what to do on the river. I he had AK on turn he has same hand on river and you should think about it on turn and save 10K. In any case, with this stack I would just bomb the nuts river for us and hope for his QJ. I we are beaten, well we still have huge stack.

TheClubber
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June 21, 2015 - 1:46 pm
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I checked the flop because I didn't think I could get three streets of value from worse hands like lower pocket pairs and might be able to induce a bluff on future streets. At the time I thought my hand was too strong to fold to a check-raise, now I doubt he would be raising as a bluff very often.  It does seem like a decent spot to c-bet since there are 12 overs that could improve one of the villains. I'm unlikely to get a ton of value so folding out their equity may be a better option.

I hadn't considered QJ in his range, but it makes sense as another hand that might be able to call my raise. I was thinking at the time my only value targets could be AQ, AJ and pocket 3s. 

My main concern about raising was that he was much more likely to bluff other players than me since I was the only player at the table that could knock him out and had been running like god for about 90 minutse.

In the end I raise, he shoved, and I called. He had AKs. At the time I wished I had saved the 70K chips and taken the more conservative route, but there's a good chance it's just results-based thinking

SIGABA
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June 22, 2015 - 5:54 pm
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I would shove the river and hope to get called by trips or QJ.  I think you played it fine.

Rok
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June 23, 2015 - 3:16 am
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Really interesting hand, I would never give him AK here. Calling AK OOP here is just strange play from an aggressive player. Thanks for sharing it!

Foucault

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June 23, 2015 - 3:33 pm
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-Flop is a good time to make a small (25 – 33%) bet with most/all of your range. When you have TT this functions mostly as a protection bet, but there's a lot of value in that.

-Flatting AKo from the SB against a tightish UTG opener who has you covered is not so unreasonable, even at a 7-handed table. Can't/shouldn't rule it out of Villain's range entirely.

-The very important thing no one has mentioned is which worse hands will call a raise here and why? How could Hero possibly show up with a bluff? For Villain to call with, say, AQ, he has to believe Hero has enough bluffs to make up for all of the AA/AK/KK/AT in his range.

-If I were to raise less than all in on the river, and Villain shoved, I'd definitely fold. What are you beating?

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