Hmmm…hello Marco.

Yes my brother by the river I am getting a very  bad feeling here also. I guess Villain could have grabbed the initiative and be betting a flush draw after your check on the turn, but really, what is he betting in to you on the river that you beat, except a missed flush draw or other bluff? Ginger says the 7 is better for v’s range, but is it really likely V has a 7 here? I’d have a hard time believing it, so I might think V is bluff heavy here. But my warning sirens along with flashing lights (think Aliens) would be sounding.

I have a little project I am working on within poker. I have called it the “Listen To Your Inner Fedor Holz”.

In a nutshell, I am trying to listen to that voice of caution/ instinct/ experience which tells me… “Bro, I know you really want to call, but you are beat here”, or “Although I can’t tell you why, you should call here because he is bluffing”. Rarely, is that inner voice wrong. It can get it wrong…sometimes I am just so pissed off that I call in a spot my instinct is screaming at me to fold, only to find I scoop the pot. But 80%+ of the time? That voice knows its stuff. 

I often wonder whether the difference between Negraneu and Holz and myself is that they listen to their inner voice, and I do not. I usually “reason” myself into or out of a decision, only to wish in hindsight I had given in to my instinct.

I read a fantastic book called The Art Of Learning by Josh Waitzkin, chess prodigy and martial arts boss. I thoroughly recommend anybody who is interested in self- help or performance psychology to read it. He describes intuition as the bridge between the subconscious and conscious minds…ahh heck it’s way too involved to get in to here.

In any case as far as I am concerned Almo your last question is a good one, and I am interested in how Carlos (hey Carlos!) and Matt range villain here. 

My instinct here is “FOLD!”, although I bet in game I’d call, almost every time.