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River check-raise as a bluff
kardi31
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June 19, 2017 - 8:03 pm
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Story : $4,4 tournament on PokerStars, sitting on 12place out of 45 remaining players.

PokerStars – 900/1800 Ante 225 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 116,367 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BTN: 31,703 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 28,441 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
BB: 43,557 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
UTG: 54,226 (VPIP: 28.85, PFR: 17.31, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
UTG+1: 55,386 (VPIP: 19.77, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 87)
Hero (MP): 71,343
MP+1: 50,818 (VPIP: 7.50, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 40)

8 players post ante of 225, SB posts SB 900, BB posts BB 1,800

Pre Flop: (pot: 4,500) Hero has 5spade 3club

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3,780, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1,980

The reason for me opening 35o is that this table was super tight. Pretty much every open on this table was a walk + one guy was sitting out. 

 

Flop: (10,260, 2 players) Jdiamond 7spade 2club
BB checks, Hero bets 4,235, BB calls 4,235

Turn: (18,730, 2 players) Tclub
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (18,730, 2 players) Qheart
BB bets 10,855, Hero raises to 61,200,

fold Hero wins 40,440

Once villain calls the flop, I pretty much exclude most of air from his range as I block 2 overs, no flash draw on the board, so only some sort of straight draw like 89,9T could be in his range. It’s more likely to be some sort of Jx or 7x. 

Turn play just confirms the range I’ve put him on. 

Now, his river bet is very strange to me. He shouldn’t be value betting any sort of J (unless QJ), straight draw got there on the turn, maybe he called the flop with some sort of Q. 

I felt like the river Q was perfect for me. I had on my range a lot of AK, which was now nuts. I could’ve given up on the river and still be above the average in the tournament. But I felt like I’ve got a lot of fold equity and decided to take this spot.

Your thoughts? 

theginger45

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July 10, 2017 - 11:01 pm
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Props for heart, it’s a big bluff to make. Not sure I love it, though.

I don’t think there are too many tables tight enough to justify opening 53o in MP. 53s maybe, but you’re taking it way overboard here. You will have to play postflop sometimes, after all, and you have blockers to many of the hands your opponents will fold.

I’m not sure what you mean on the flop by “I block 2 overs”. You don’t block anything except 5x and 3x hands.

I guess flop c-bet is fine since you have no other way to win the pot and this is the nut worst hand in your range, I hope. You do at least have a backdoor straight draw or two.

You do have some AK in your range and perhaps some QT or QJ, but you don’t have much in the way of sets or 89, which is a little problematic when it comes to actually getting villain to fold. Villain’s range here is probably stronger than you’d think – you’re most likely correct that they’re not betting much Jx for value, but they’re also not likely to be turning many hands into bluffs very often since low-stakes players just don’t do that anywhere near enough.

If that’s the case, we have to look at villain’s value range as being Qx hands or better – there aren’t many single-pair Qx hands in there, though, so it’s JT, T7, QJ, 98, and any slowplayed set. If the table is as tight as you suggest, villain may also have TT in their range.

Essentially it’s a question of, what do you realistically expect villain to bet-fold here? It’s obvious that 53o is one of the worst bluffing hands in your range since you block nothing, so we have to look at this purely as an exploitative play, designed to exploit a tendency on the part of villain to bet-fold this spot too frequently. Since villain’s betting frequency as a bluff is much lower, their betting range gets stronger, which means we have to be able to get them to fold a good % of their value range in order to make this work.

In this spot, I’m not convinced that’s going to happen. Low-stakes villains hate folding 2-pair or better and the guy just doesn’t have a lot of one-pair hands here. It sort of seems like you just opened a really trashy hand for a pretty thin reason and then tried to find a way to win the pot at all costs postflop. I think folding river here is probably better, but it’s good that you have the ability to pull the trigger.

lapp3r30
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July 22, 2017 - 8:10 pm
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When playing hands like this I believe all your money is gonna come from folds to CBs on flop and turn.  What you’re doing with this random hand is just getting way too wide with your bluffs… Hands like 89, 910 w BD flush draw are gonna play a lot better in spots like this as bluffs later in the hand. You do want that equity so you can do the same thing you did on the river w value hands as well. As is if you’re  doing this w a random 35 it means you’re doing it w such a large part of your range you’re not gonna be able to turn a profit. 

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