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River Bluff with 12 left in $16.50 Bounty Freezout - Right Play or Donkey Spew?

Twanobi

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January 23, 2012 - 9:25 pm

I have been at the table for maybe 4 orbits or so and UTG has been on a heater and basically wiped out the whole table. The villian is is running a 24/5 over 64 hands and has raised me both times the table has folded around to him pre. I flat with the plan to out play him during further streets since out stacks are pretty close is size I feel like I can put considerable pressure on him that will get him to fold. Flatting the flop is pretty standard I think def plan to fire the turn if he checks. Plus I dont see many 7,4,2 in his range unless he has some thing like A(7,4,2) if he did I would suspect his c-bets to be a bit bigger to protect against the flush draw. When the turn pairs the board and adds a second heart I figure this is a great card for my hand because it gives me more cards that I can bluff on the river since he is playing the hand so cautiously. I think the river king is a great card for my bluff I could have easily been calling down with Kx hh or ss. His river bet seems very weak to me I would think that if he was betting for value he would bet between 1/2 pot to pot in which case I would abandon my plan and lose the min. I decide to shove to get him to fold. Did I tell a convincing story with my bluff or does it look like a busted flush draw that would easily get snapped by any pair or Ax? Is this the right board texture and run out that I should be running a bluff like this? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Merge Network $750 Guaranteed Bounty Freezeout No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t300.00/t600.00 Blinds + t75.00 – 6 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Froliche1 (CO): BB = 21.0, t12593
xBaTCoUnTrY (BTN): BB = 34.7, t20793
Bubsox614 (SB): BB = 30.2, t18103
Hero (BB): BB = 25.8, t15493
pifumltc (UTG): BB = 52.0, t31203
12plund123 (MP): BB = 30.7, t18401

Pre Flop: (t1350) Hero is BB with 6 of clubs 4 of diamonds
4 folds, Bubsox614 raises to t1200.00, Hero calls t600

Flop: (t2850) 7 of hearts 4 of spades 2 (2 players)
Bubsox614 bets t1425.00, Hero calls t1425

Turn: (t5700) 2 of hearts (2 players)
Bubsox614 bets t1650.00, Hero calls t1650

River: (t9000) K of clubs (2 players)
Bubsox614 bets t1800.00, Hero raises to t11818 all in, Bubsox614 calls t10018

pkrnewb42

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Guests

January 23, 2012 - 9:37 pm

As played the all in on the river is a sign of weakness imo. I would of folded pre but that being said you have to make a stand earlier in the hand if that’s the plan. Raise the flop etc. Not exactly sure what hand you were repping on the river. Only hand that calls you there has you crushed.

badabing78

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January 23, 2012 - 10:31 pm

to me this is a shove or fold pre.(more fold)

i think you are way too shortstacked for playing around, and also deepstacked i wouldnt bluff here.

if id come to the river i would just check behind cause we have showdownvalue against all his busted draws anyway

hawkeyeK9

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January 24, 2012 - 3:38 pm

Fold or jam pre man. Not deep enough to get tricky.

Twanobi

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January 25, 2012 - 5:25 am

Yea Im a spew tard sometimes yell

running0uts

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January 25, 2012 - 11:20 am

yeah, I think you are too short to be flatting here.

As played though you pick up SD value on the flop and so I would be way less inclined to turn the hand into a bluff. At this point, if you think you are ahead then call down, if you think you are behind then fold as I don't see any hand that is beating you folding to you. His bet sizing could show he is on a weakish hand trying to get to SD, or it could be his bigger hands trying to milk you for value. I think it's tough but I would probably end up calling down once I am in the hand.

0lespaul3

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January 25, 2012 - 4:12 pm

Yikes!! This is a snap fold unless your dealing with a HUGE chips stack in the sb and youve got some info. And if youve got the info on him, jam it. Not fancy play syndrome, with 25 bbs, and passive play. You said you thought you could outplay this guy post flop, and did nothing but flat pre, flat flop, flat turn, and the look extremely weak with a river shove. What were you representing by the way? This is a snap fold almost every time. Ecspecially so close to the FT. ICM should be inbedded in your head, along with good solid fundamental poker, while keeping an eye on the extremely tight, passive, and agressive players…. Good luck

Bytie_nl

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Guests

January 25, 2012 - 5:00 pm

I would let this one go pre and fold, unless i would opt to raise/fold pre which I dont like given his 24/5 on >60 hands. I would have to know his sb bb stats to make a better decision but generally i would just take another spot with this stacksize.

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