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Risking good FE for a chance at maximum FE
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Carlos
Atlanta, Ga
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January 15, 2013 - 1:30 pm
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This is not a hand I played so I dont have an HH. I want to try this discussion with it, but I could recreate it if necessary.

 

Say you are playing an MTT 9 handed. There are antes, but it's not too close to the money yet.

The average stack in the tourney is 30bbs and the average stack at your table is 20bbs.

You have 18bbs in the BB and pick up K6s. The guy to your right is good and is the big stack at the table with 21bbs.

A shorty with 5bbs shoves from MP. He is not that great and not that bad, so his range is somewhere in the middle.

It folds around to you. There is roughly 2.15bbs of dead money in the pot including your BB so that leaves you with 17bb behind if you fold. You are getting 4bb/11.15bb ~ 36% to call. We have 35-40% equity vs most ranges we can assign to him, so it's close based purely on the numbers.

 

If we fold

We are left with 17bb which gives us good FE at the table for now, but not so much if we have to go through the blinds again and the level goes up. Plus we have the big stack directly to our left and that limits our options somewhat, but we may be able to resteal with this stack.

If we call and lose

We are left with 13bb which gives us a decent amount of FE for now, but significantly less if we have to go through the blinds again and the level goes up. There is very little chance we can resteal with this stack, although I have seen it happen once or twice.

If we call and win

We will have 24bb which gives us maximum FE as the new chip leader. In addition, we will have gained some fear equity, meaning that after seeing us call off with K6s with only a marginal stack, some players may be a little more reluctant to shove on us now that we have the big stack. This slightly decreases their perceived fold equity in a sense.

 

My point is I wonder if I am missing spots like this where I can consider taking a little more risk (diff between 17bb and 13bb) in exchange for a chance to improve my ability to bully the table by increasing my fold equity and fear equity.

 

My standard thought when I have a stack this size it to just fold to preserve my FE and look for steal and resteal spots. Winning this pot basically trades the resteal opportunity for an opportunity to own the table. I think the choice depends on how the table has been playing so far. E.g., if nobody is raise folding, like in some lower stakes games, then the ability to resteal is not there anyway. Plus, people that are not opening light are probably not calling bully shoves too light either.

 

Standards are great and you have to have them as a default. But I think it is good mental exercise to at least dream up some different lines even if you decide you dont like them and never use them. Some of these lines you may like, try them out, fail, and then decide to not use them again. I promise you wont die. I think I may try this one and see if I like it.

Turbulence
Falkirk, Scotland
Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done
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January 15, 2013 - 7:24 pm
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Love the thought and analysis you have put behind this.

 

I haven't really defined an exact number but if I am left with any kind of workable stack when I call and lose, then there is almost no 2 cards I am folding to a 5bb shove when folded to me in the BB. In this scenario 13bbs is enough of a remaining stack to class as workable given the threat it still poses to the average size of the stacks at the table, so i barely blink when I call.

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/

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Carlos
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January 16, 2013 - 10:03 am
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Thanks man, I am trying my best to think outside the box and catch up with guys like you. I would have probably snap folded this a week or two ago and imagine some other might do the same. Once I ran the numbers, I was shocked at how strong Kxs is. I think it is a very underrated hand.

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