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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy r/f AK with 17bb?

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r/f AK with 17bb?

thedonator716

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November 13, 2013 - 9:57 pm

FT of a little $5 1k on BCP Quenched is 27/17/8 3bet 352 hands 22chuck is 19/17/4 3bet 144 hands. FWIW I've ever thought about r/f here before. Don't laugh too hard 🙂 .

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 3,000/6,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

mailpip (SB): 111,825.00
IcutCheckss (BB): 181,540.00
ledonateur716 (UTG): 101,126.00
Quenched (UTG+1): 304,447.00
Dr. Nick Riviera (MP): 213,725.00
choppa66 (MP+1): 148,978.00
22chuckmag22 (CO): 141,553.00
Doinksz83 (BTN): 86,806.00

mailpip posts ante 600.00, IcutCheckss posts ante 600.00, ledonateur716 posts ante 600.00, Quenched posts ante 600.00, Dr. Nick Riviera posts ante 600.00, choppa66 posts ante 600.00, 22chuckmag22 posts ante 600.00, Doinksz83 posts ante 600.00, mailpip posts SB 3,000.00, IcutCheckss posts BB 6,000.00

Pre Flop: (13800.00) ledonateur716 has  K A 

[color=red]ledonateur716 raises to 12,000.00[/color], [color=red]Quenched raises to 30,000.00[/color], fold, fold, [color=red]22chuckmag22 raises to 48,000.00[/color], fold, fold, fold, ledonateur716???

mikewebb68

Sunday Major

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November 13, 2013 - 11:42 pm

As bad as the players are on Winning, you may be ahead. What is your read on the players outside of the HUD numbers? Given your stack size and the top-heavy payout (specifcally top three) might be worth the risk depending on your reads, since you are the second shortest-stack. Normally, the fishy 4 bet from chuck would scream monster, but I have seen stranger plays on this network from bad players who actually did not have a hand. Has chuck made fishy bets like this before? With or without a hand?

CCuster 911

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November 14, 2013 - 10:57 am

This is an interesting spot. It entirely depends on your reads on both players, outside of HEM stats. Sure these numbers are useful but in general you are not going to have useful stats on someones UTG+1 3 bet, or somones min 4 bet tendencies. Sure some extrapolations can be made, but usually only regarding the extremes(super nits and super LAG).

Another thing to consider here is that maybe chuckmag misclicked. This could easily be judged by timing, but maybe still a slight factor even if it wasnt an immediate minraise. Especially if this play is out of his character.

Overall, my gut tells me it is a fold. Quenched sizing doesnt leave much in terms of FE(assuming chuckmag folded instead and it was HU), so we have to assume he doesnt have complete air, meaning his FE if we get it in here is less than we would want. Think about the questions I posed, and if you can offer more insights I will try to give more information on my outlook. Definitely an interesting spot though.

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thedonator716

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November 14, 2013 - 12:25 pm

I don't remember any hands that really stand out with Quenched. 22chuck hsa been playing fairly tight so far in the last stages of this tournament and I've never seen him get out of line. My utg open with my stack plus the other stacks at the table made this look insanely strong to me. And it's not very often you see a cold 4bet at the FT of a $5 tourney. The misclick idea is interesting and it actually makes a little sense. It does seem easier to misclick on this site compared to others. Another reason I considered folding here is I'm pretty comfortable with my shove/resteal play as a short stack vs the other players here. vs single action I'm getting this in without much thought obv.

CCuster 911

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November 14, 2013 - 9:35 pm

Yep those are great points. I didnt really consider the 5$ aspect and you probably having a huge edge, that can easily be exploited, this allows you to pass up marginal high variance edges. So it looks a lot like a fold to me.

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takedown

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November 16, 2013 - 3:29 pm

I probably find a fold, it's a cold 4b from someone that only 3 bets 4% of the time over a decent sample.