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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy resteal +ev or to thin

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resteal +ev or to thin

buffyslayer1

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August 20, 2010 - 2:01 pm

Reads – we are 16 left and I have a top 5 stack and approx 30bb

Villain is super active and has opened nearely ever pot that has folded to him. Our history is last orbit he raised BvB and I 3 bet with JJ and he folded.

Next hand he opens btn and I 3 bet in the SB with QQ he flats I c bet a low raggy flop half pot and he folds

Very next hand he opens CO and I flat with KTs (45bb effective) he c bets a KTx flop I raise to neat pot, he flats turn is a A he checks I check behind (QJ got there AT got there etc and I dont think he has a A alot here so I want to get value on river). River is a gross J. So board is KTxAJ and he jams 1.5x the pot into me and i fold

So this spot comes up next orbit, I think I am ahead of his open range and I should have some decent FE. I dont really want to 3 bet small as I think he can spazz shove alot here and I am not a fan of 3b/call 22 for value!

I can flat i think but 22 is gonan be so hard to play OOP versus a agrro villain

I can shove but its possible a bit thin although +ev (+2.1bb) if he opens 55% hands on btn and calls a ship with top 13% which is posisble a wide calling range 33+,A7s+,KJs+,ATo+,KJo+ but given our history this is likely

or I can fold….

basically do we think that this is +ev enough to take a high variance play. I have been pretty comfortable (up to KTs hand) and chipping up pretty well

Poker Stars $10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t7000/t14000 Blinds + t1750 – 8 players
Hand Conversion courtesy of Tournament Poker Edge

MP2: BB = 19.2, t269059
CO: BB = 14.7, t206269
BTN: BB = 64.1, t897622
jamming19 (SB): BB = 29.4, t412101
BB: BB = 25.6, t357899
UTG: BB = 90.1, t1261829
UTG+1: BB = 6.5, t91374
MP1: BB = 16.7, t234016

Pre Flop: (t35000) jamming19 is SB with 2 of diamonds 2 of spades
5 folds, BTN raises to t42000, jamming19 raises to t410351 all in

RonFezBuddy

New York City

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August 20, 2010 - 5:18 pm

I think it's too high variance given all this crazy history between you guys. He's probably calling too wide. Your a little too deep for a pure resteal and all the other options suck as you mentioned. Probably better spots.

FkCoolers

Cambridge, Ma (Central Square)

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August 20, 2010 - 5:27 pm

RonFezBuddy said:

I think it's too high variance given all this crazy history between you guys. He's probably calling too wide. Your a little too deep for a pure resteal and all the other options suck as you mentioned. Probably better spots.

+1.

If you hadn't already gotten into battles I think it becomes a better argument but I still don't like it purely based on our stack size. Top 5 stack currently and you just know the bottom the the ladder is holding on for dear life.

I usually avoid high risk moves against the ones who have me covered and attempt to bully the hell out of the bottom feeders and middle stacks who keep waiting for their spot.

Also… lol @ the fact that 4 of probably the top 6 stacks are all sitting next to each other at the same table. GG balance.

jshilling09

Playing The Prelims

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August 20, 2010 - 9:06 pm

i think you are a little too deep, i may three bet jam this with 20bb effective

Shackleton

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August 20, 2010 - 9:08 pm

Echo what Ron and Fk have posted.

His aggro nature / stack size makes it more likely that he'll call you light which I presume you don't want. The way he's playing you'll surely get a better spot soon.

mmfitter

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August 21, 2010 - 9:51 am

How did u make out the rest of the way?

buffyslayer1

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August 21, 2010 - 10:01 am

BB woke up with AQ and the btn overcalled with AJ

results dont matter tbh, its more the decision i am interested in……

its plus ev but given history prob to high variance as I have played back already alot, although I hand hands he doesnt know that and is prob ready to snap. Which he did as I think AJ as a overcall is not great given the BB had been very tight

HITTHEPANDA

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Guests

August 21, 2010 - 6:44 pm

I am perfectly fine with this shove with how you described villain. The only thing that might concern me is that you've been 3betting him before and now you're shoving, so I expect you'll get looked up a lot lighter here.

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