Hello TPE,

Had a discussion on skype with a couple of friends but I wanna run it by the bright brains of TPE also.
I will copy / paste the conversation and would gladly take any advice from the sharp minds!

Mike: Btw, what approach does people nowdays have to ITM bubble play? Do we look to mincash or we take a spot that is +chip ev but risk ourself to bust? I mean as variance is big in poker, do people adjust to that?

Other dude: Just to clarify are we talking on the bubble or just after we’ve cashed?

Mike: just before ITM bubble, we have not cashed yet

Other dude: I imagine there’s a lot of factors, like your stack size, how top heavy the payout structure is, how many buy in’s a min cash is worth and how +E.V you think the spot is.

Mike: lets say 8-10bb, you know it’s close, probably a flip. If you call you risk to bust. If you don’t take the spot you can mincash but probably blind out and have a very hard time to win. Do we still always aim to win or we do mincash and take it from there? Let’s say the mincash is around 2 buy ins or so.

Other dude: I don’t think we should actively seek flips on the bubble, if the value of the spot is marginal folding is probably better

Mike: just something I have been thinking about lately as people do a lot of things to reduce variance, mincashing more can be such a thing too maybe

Other dude: Bubble plays always interesting, I think I over-adjust by never giving people credit for a hand. I think on a short stack aim to make the money and with a large stack try and build a stack. It also depends if we have fold equity or not. We don’t want to be calling off 44 to a sb shove but we want to shove it from the small blind. Be interested in what other people think

Mike: yeah I know about abuse stack, but I just say in general if this can be a way to reduce variance, let’s say you have a big agro stack pushing around the table on the bubble, you sit in big blind with AJo, you know you most likely are ahead of his shove range and he jam from the hijack. Do you make a call here or just fold, move on, blind out and mincash?
You know that if you win that hand, you get ~18bbs, and can jam on smaller stacks to the left yourself and maybe get up to 20-25bbs before ITM bubble is over and start to play it from there

Other dude: What do we think he’s shoving? any 2 or broadway cards, pairs and Ax’s

Mike: connected hands, any A, K, suited Qs, well can really be any 2
so question is, to reduce variance, we just forget what hand we have, aim to mincash and then try find a spot after we reach ITM?
As people mix in a lot of SnG’s etc in the MTT schedule as variance reducers

Other dude: I think AJo is probably to good to fold v.s his shoving range

Mike: yeah exactly, it’s too good to fold, but do we fold and mincash or take the hand and go with it and risk to bubble? From a variance perspective

Another dude: to answer that, we ALWAYS PLAY TO WIN this is the main goal ^ the decisions into close calls shouldn’t matter if we are “hoping to mincash”. We are playing to win, so if the spot is right, we take it

Other dude: There’s probably more $E.V in calling off. V.S a random hand we win 63.5% and lose 36.5%. If we think we can outplay the table and take advantage of the bubble we finish high enough on average to justify the times we bust.
If min-cashing means so much to your bankroll you shouldn’t be playing those stakes in the first place.

Mike: When you play 15-24 tables, a lot of bubble busting can make huge impact on your roll even if you play with 300 buy ins. That’s why I’m asking