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Range Analysis - Calling CR Jam with top & Bottom
magpienath
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December 20, 2018 - 8:30 pm
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$11 Big on Stars and down to final 50ish players and I have a good stack close to first in chips. I tangle with the BB which costs me my stack and I felt in game I made a rash/speqy decision to call and after reviewing the spot its looks like I should be folding. Im new to the table played one orbit so have no reads. Based on the range I gave him for the turn Jam I have 30% equity In a best case scenario. 

I ranged him -TT,44-55,ATs,54s,32s,AKo,ATo – I think he 3bets AKs/AKo/ most of the time but included AKo as sometimes he may flat to trap and pot control out of pos. Sometimes may have 67 clubs, which takes it about 37% equity but most people tend to flat unless demonstrated otherwise. 

I think his flatting range would contain AQ/AJ as well and not be in his CR range in this spot.

 

Would you range villain any differently? 

I feel this opportunity for a decent score was spewed away in a moment of madness.

 

 

PokerStars – 4000/8000 Ante 1000 NL – Holdem – 9 players

SB: 16.51 BB 
BB: 58.53 
UTG: 10.52 BB
UTG+1: 27.82 BB 
MP: 36.14 BB 
MP+1: 38.53 BB 
[b]Hero (MP+2): 77.61 BB
CO: 74.36 BB
BTN: 32.2 BB 

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, [b]BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 4spade Aspade

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.62 BB, 3 players) 4club Tdiamond Aclub
BB checks, Hero bets 3.89 BB, fold, BB calls 3.89 BB

Turn: (15.4 BB, 2 players) 5spade
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB raises to 52.51 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 43.51 BB

River: (120.43 BB, 2 players) Kspade

BB shows Theart Adiamond (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 66%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 4spade Aspade (Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
(Pre 34%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 120.43 BB

rppoker
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December 20, 2018 - 10:42 pm
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Pre flop min raise seems OK given that it is suited. It is a hand that in most instances you either flop the world (nut flush, an underrepresented straight) or you let it go three handed.

Unfortunately for you the flop is an absolute cooler. You flop two pair, but unfortunately your opponent flops a better two pair. There is no way to avoid losing a pretty decent sized pot. You bet the flop, as you should since you have two pair. It seems like a dream flop. Villain only calls so you have no reason to think you are behind.

The turn is where it gets dicey. The 5 seems like a relatively harmless card. 2-3 got there but that would be incredibly unlucky for you. At this point you have reason to think you are still ahead. You have a decision between checking for pot control purposes or leading out one more time since you think you are ahead. I think it is 50-50 which decision to make, although if you are going to bet into what I think is a slightly less than 16 BB pot, perhaps a case can be made for smaller sizing on your bet. But I still think I am splitting hairs at this point. You still think you are ahead of his range given the fact that you have two pair.

But now villain hits you with a massive overshove. It’s a pretty polarizing bet. If he has the nuts, wouldn’t he bet only 18-23 BB hoping to induce a shove from you? On the other hand, why would he shove with a stone-cold bluff given that you have shown nothing but strength this hand?

So what could he have that would make him shove. 4-4, 5-5, T-T, A-T would all make sense and have you crushed. 2-3 would shove on the turn, but does 2-3 call both pre flop (maybe) and post flop (seems pretty ambitious given that only four cards will allow him to get there on the turn or river, and if he misses on the turn it’s pretty uncertain he ever gets to the river))? A-K seems kind of unlikely to me given that pre flop there was a min bet and a call before he called from the big blind (I just don’t him failing to iso/squeeze with A-K).

The only bluffs I can see him playing this way are two clubs (KQ, KJ, KT, QT), but does he really have enough equity with one card to come if you call his jam? It would be a pretty bold, aggro move, but you say you haven’t been at the table long enough to have an idea how he plays. You mentioned 6c, 7c, but I think that hand would make sense to call your turn bet but does he really want to spazz out all-in with just 7 high (yeah he has a ton of outs, but only one card left to get there)?

Based upon all of this I think 4-4, 5-5, T-T, A-T are strong candidates for his hand and have you crushed, whereas hands you are ahead of if you call are clubs that are not as likely but still make some sense and AK is a long shot as played pre flop but I suppose he could have been trying to hide the strength of his hand. 2-3 has you beat but that seems like an unlikely but somewhat possible hand as played. Based upon this I think there are more hands and more likely hands that have you beat once he jams than those that you are ahead of. When you think it through in this much detail I think it is a fold, but it’s a difficult fold. You have two pair and if you win the hand you have the chips to do serious damage. In real time I think it is a very difficult fold to make. Given 20 minutes to think it through as I have done here I think the conclusion is to fold, but in real time I don’t know whether I find the fold button or not.

The saying is never go broke without at least two pair. You flopped two pair without a flush draw reached and without many straights having gotten home when all the chips went in the middle. This was a very unfortunate runout of cards. After the fact when you know the cards it is easy to say, hit the fold button. But over the long haul, is it +EV or -EV folding two pair on a board that is not horrible? I don’t know.

3for3
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December 24, 2018 - 9:04 am
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I don’t remember who said it, but this concept has saved me a lot of chips against straightforward players:

A raise or a check raise on the turn is always at least 2 pair. 

Yes, Villain should be balanced, and have appropriate number of bluffs.  There are some combo draws that do make sense.  The problem is you have the worst 2 pair here.  Villain probably never has T5/T4.  I guess they could have 54s but that is about the only 2 pair you beat; 2 combos.  

It is easy to say here, but I think I’d find the exploitative fold button.  Would have been a better call if the turn was a 8/9/J, since there are now a lot of 2 pair you beat.

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