January 10, 2017
60 left out 206 entrants in a live $150 bi tourney. Blinds are 1.5k/3k, I have 58k to start the hand. UTG limps, UTG +2 limps, Sb limps and I check from the bb with Q8dd. Flop is Q62hh. Goes xxx, utg 2 is fairly active and bets 6k. Sb folds, utg seems uninterested, I jam. Utg folds and utg2 snap calls with AJhh. Villain started the hand with approx 120k. Obviously this is a flip assuming villain thinks his ace give him additional outs. I am curious though if chip preservation would outweigh the additional chips he would get from me if he catches. I mean its possible I have a weaker flush draw but I think he can be fairly confident he probably needs to catch in order to win the hand.
Also, is my jam too high variance? Starting the hand with just under 20 bbs, top pair, and villains stack size that I would have a ton of fold equity and be able to deny equity if villain had a hand similar to what he actually had.
September 3, 2018
Your jam does seem pretty high variance. It’s not like you have the nuts, close to the nuts or a hand that is particularly likely to improve. On a five-way flop it seems very possible that someone else could have a queen with a better kicker than you. The possibility of someone limping with 22 or 66 and hitting a set which they are slow playing is a possibility. On the other hand, there are already a lot of chips in the middle and the only player who seems interested is an active player who could be stabbing at the pot with air. I think my preference is to call the postflop bet and reassess after the turn. That said, I think a lot depends on how villain has been playing. Is he likely to two and three barrel with air, or has he shown that he will slow down after someone calls a post flop bet? If your read is that he is on a draw then your jam makes sense. But on the other hand, do you really think your jam is likely to get him to fold better? If you had started the hand with less than 15BB I could see the jam. But given your stack size, if you just call the postflop raise you still have 49k behind and if villain has shown a propensity to slow down on his turn and river bluffs then I like the idea of trying to get to showdown cheap with top pair mediocre kicker. Again, I think the key is whether villain typically two and three barrel bluffs or if he tends to slow down after firing one bullet postflop.
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