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Question about unfamiliar players who seem to be opening every chance they get?
derSchwartz
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August 24, 2014 - 11:17 pm
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Good evening TPE,

I have a general question after some situations came up in recent sessions.

I know that in order to get a good idea of how a player plays we need a good large sample size.  Probably several hundred hands to get basic information, thousands of hands to get a full picture.  So I understand that if we only have 30 hands on a player, we must be careful not to assume too much (if anything) about that player's ranges and tendencies.

But what happens when it's getting down to the final few tables, and someone who you haven't seen before and who's been at another table all game sits next to you and seems to open every unopened pot?  I imagine we can't make a judgement after just one orbit that this player is opening wide (as running good happens to everyone) and it certainly isn't worth a hero call to find out. 

But what about after two orbits, in a situation where blinds are rising and the average stack is just 15BB? 

In other words, if you are getting short, say 10-15BB, and said player enters and starts opening every unopened pot, about how long do you keep folding until you start considering calling with weaker holdings?  Do you try never to do this?  Will you start calling wide after just 5 opens in a row?

I realize this may be difficult to answer since it's probably a sliding scale that depends on hero posiiton, villain position, stack dynamics and the whole bit.  So I welcome any response on this subject taken from any perspective.

Thanks for reading.

Sen
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August 25, 2014 - 10:08 am
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If I remember correctly there is a chapter about this topic in The Mathematics of Poker.

You have to remember that poker is always a game of incomplete information. Even if you have a player who played every hand of his last 10 hands, there is a small chance that he was having a relatively wide range (let's asomue an average neglegting position) of 22+, A2s+, A5o+, 78s+, T9o+. This would be a range of 31.2% (according to poker stove).

Now, getting this range 10 times in a row happens 0,00087% of the time (31.2%^10). So near to never, or less than 1 in 100000 times.

This means we can assume that a player opening/playing ten hands in a row has an extremely wide range, if not no defined range at all.

Back to your question: If you see a player open the first hand he is dealt at your table, you have a very high propability (above 50%) that he is playing a very loose style. If you see him opening the second hand he get's a chance to steal, the probability increases to something above 70% (maybe even 80% I don't remember for sure).

So there is stilly a ~30% chance that your assumption that this is a loose opener is wrong, but chances are he actually is.

It's up to you now if you want to respond to this, or not.

For example, knowing this fact, I often tend to raise the player (if circumstance such as stack sizes, table dynamic etc allow it), that has been seated newly to the table and opens his first hand.

NeverAA
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August 25, 2014 - 11:05 am
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Sen made a very good job explaining the situation. The range he has given I think is a typical range of a player who is trying to harrass. I would fight back with re-reising a little above his range. 55+, TJo+, 89s+, A6s+, A8o+.

And I would try to make sure I will be heads up with him.

Foucault

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August 25, 2014 - 2:50 pm
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Nice post Sen, saved me a lot of time with that one 😉

MovesLikeDarvin

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August 26, 2014 - 4:27 pm
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Sen wins this thread.

michaeldi11on
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August 26, 2014 - 7:12 pm
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Very well explained Sen

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