Really goodstuff there again ginger. I’ve been going through the process of trying to define my BR and stakes as well. Up until recently I’ve always had a decent job and played for fun (all be it that I take the game seriously and a nice win was always good) so I didn’t put much stock into BR, if I fancied an MTT I played it (within reason). Well, I am now currently between jobs and have been playing pretty much full-time for a couple of months. I was spoiled a bit in the first couple of weeks by binking $109 tournament on Party for nearly $10K. Great, I’m rolled I thought. A few weeks later and a few sundays later, there wasn’t much left. Fortunately I had another decent score. However, it was a serious wake up call. As I now need to play for profit, or as a minimum not lose at the same rate whilst I get my game up to scratch, I have had to look at this very seriously.

I am currently in the process of drafting my Poker Management Plan, which is effectively a contract with myself as to how I am going to manage all aspects of my poker activity which naturally includes a BR plan.

After taking a long hard look at my game, results, stats ect. It was very clear to me that if I am to survive the next couple of months and hopefully grow my BR I have to avoid Pokerstars all together (except for a select few tournements0. I have always been profitable playing on the smaller sites against smaller fields. This is where I will focus. Over the years Stars has been a disaster for me as I was never able to play the volume required despite actually taking some big scores there.

Another thing I am doing to try to smooth out the varience is I will be playing a certain volume of 1 table SNGs, for me this will be mostly 6max turbos. I will also be playing a lot more satellites as well. Now that I have restricted my buy-ins for my grind sessions but I still want to be able to play some higher buy-in MTTs particularly on Sundays, within my management plan I can now only do this if I have satellited in / won equivalent value ticket.

theginger45 said

A lot of this sounds pretty good, but avoiding PokerStars altogether is a band-aid on a different problem. It’s one thing if you genuinely believe your ROI and hourly rate is better on other sites (there’s a good chance it is, since Stars is the toughest site), but it’s another thing if you’re avoiding Stars because of what’s happened to you in the past or how you performed in the past. The past has no bearing on the future in that sense, so your only reason for deciding not to play on Stars should be if you believe replacing it with other sites is more +EV.

I am only avoiding Stars in the short term i.e 3-4 months while I work on my game, build my BR and my confidence. I do also believe that m for me the smaller sites are much more +EV. In these early stages of building this up potentially as new career I would rather have steady flow of smaller (and relatively easier) wins. 

Looking at your results is probably one of the least effective ways of analysing your game, unless you’re looking at a massive sample of information. Generally looking at your database will be a good guide, and doing your research on SharkScope about the average strength of the field in each tournament you’re considering playing.

To analyse my game I have been using my database. Looking at me results more closely just showed me the massive swings I had playing on Stars vs the much more steady  / stable curves playing on smaller sites, thats really all I was reffering to here. 

I also don’t think 1-table SNGs are likely to smooth out the variance at all, I think that’s a bad idea. With the number of people grinding high volume in those games these days they’re basically dead – ROIs are in the 5% range at best, from what I’ve heard. I would imagine you’d be better off grinding some of the multi-table SNGs like 45-mans or 180-mans, where achievable ROIs can reach the 20-30% range if you play really well.

If playing on Stars I absolutely agree with what you say (although even there a decent ROI can be had in $1.5-$7 bracket) as on Stars you can play the volume but you are playing against a lot of ‘regs’ / specialists. You cant get the volume on other sites but the ROI is great as there are very few regs / specialist playing. Therefore, I can comfortably play in the $10-50 games and cash at a much higher frequency. 

Of course, a better solution would be to grind tournaments where you have a 50% ROI or so in a smallish field, but whether those games exist for you depends on your current ability. In general I would say the best advice I can give at this point is that while your plan is a good foundation, it’s not your plan that will make you money. It’s your ability to continue improving your game and maximising your ROI. Your plan needs to include time for studying and developing your game – trying to do it all by implementing the perfect structure is a struggle for a level of control you will never have.  

My Poker Management Plan encompasses all that you say and more, I have been pulling in advice from all over the site (including many of your articles) to create an operating framework for myself. Its a work in progress but these are the main head sections of the plan:-

Overall Objectives

Bankroll and Bankroll Management

Game Selection

– MTTs and buy-ins

– SNGs and buy-ins

– Taking Shots

– Field sizes and quality

-Which sites to play

Playing Schedule

-Volume

-Days to play, time of day, session duration

-MTT schedule by time, site, buy-in, priority ect

– Live games and series

Training / Learning / Development

— Priorities and objectives

– how / when / where ect 

Like I said it is a work in progress, and will be reviewed and iterated every 3-4 months. But just going through the process of thinking about the subject of managing my poker playing and development has helped me be much clearer about what I am doing and more focused at the tables. Just a shame I didn’t do this a couple of months ago, but we live and learn, and hopefully improve! 

theginger45 said
That all sounds good, looks like a solid plan. The main reason your graph on Stars is more swingy is likely because of a lower ROI and bigger fields – game selection improvements should fix that.

One other thing – don’t get so hung up on planning that you forget to spend time on the execution. You’ll never be able to game select so perfectly that you always make money, so embrace your lack of control and do the best you can. Good luck!  

Talking to me now are we!  you didn’t even acknowledge me whilst sat next to me on 2 tables on PartyPoker yesterday. 

Anyway, as a result of this thread and your previous comments about Stars ect I did a bit more deep delving into my results on Stars using Sharkscope. Very interesting tail they tell when looked at more closely. Turns out that I am a significant winning player at all stakes and field sizes up to but not including $200 over a sample of 5100ish scheduled Mtts. 

0-$200 Ave Proffit: $8:31 Ave Stake: $26.94 Av ROI: 54.1% Profit: $42,905

And the graph looks pretty decent (with a significant upswing after joining TPE)

The massive swings (downswings) were from all the shots I was taking over the years at tournaments with buy-ins of $200+ eg big Sunday sessions, SCOOP, WCOOP ect ect 

344 mtts $200+ Ave Profit: -$197 Av Stake: $271 Av ROI: -56.4% Profit: -$67,693

This graph is basically a straight line down wiith a couple of small binks on the way. This is actually a little embarrassing for me to put up here, but i hope that it at least helps someone else to not make the same mistake. I most stress this was over a period of years and I did have a very well paid job at the time. 

So, I now have a clearer picture of what I am doing and capable of. I’m back on Stars and will be sticking to low and Med buy-ins whilst building my roll. Only taking shots occasionally and with satellites in ect. ad my first proper score already taking 2nd in the Big $7.50 for $2774