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(2 votes) 
October 21, 2013
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I think everything up untill the river is standard BUT on the river i have a couple of questions: first of all i dont think we can value bet this river, it's true that villain doesnt have many (if any) 9s or 6s in his range BUT he could play AA KK this way imo and we also dont have a vlaue target other than AJ, anyone disagree ?
Second and third q: If we are in villain's place and we have AA or KK what should we do ? my answer would be to thin value bet/ fold this river, but i'm not 100% sure… And depending on this answer : if we elect to bet with AA and KK here in villain's shoes shouldnt we (as Hero) turn QQ into a bluff ?
May 20, 2013
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Riar, I know its not your question, but “I think everything up untill the river is standard” has thrown me off. I am surprised there is no effort to drive the blind out or raise on any street.
But to your question, I agree that AA/KK seems in his range and if I am betting the river, its turning my hand into a bluff more than thin value, which is targetting a J only.
To answer your later question, because you did call (vs. raise) on any street, I think you might be able to rep a 9 here. I think I am relying on table flow and history to determine if that would work. That being said, I would be pessimistic that it would work here vs. AA or KK because he can easily put you on a Jack and call.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I like the way you played it. I think I'd ck/call AA on the river as Villain because of the number of draws that missed, though I agree it's close. I wouldn't respond to that uncertainty by betting 100% of my range when checked to. I think bluffing with your missed draws, checking back Jx and QQ, and value betting KK+ (if you ever get to the river this way with KK/AA, but even if not you have a fair number of boats). I actually don't think you should have 9x here, seems like a turn fold to me.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
Riar, I know its not your question, but “I think everything up untill the river is standard” has thrown me off. I am surprised there is no effort to drive the blind out or raise on any street.
But to your question, I agree that AA/KK seems in his range and if I am betting the river, its turning my hand into a bluff more than thin value, which is targetting a J only.
To answer your later question, because you did call (vs. raise) on any street, I think you might be able to rep a 9 here. I think I am relying on table flow and history to determine if that would work. That being said, I would be pessimistic that it would work here vs. AA or KK because he can easily put you on a Jack and call.
What would a raise accomplish other than driving the blind out? I think pre-flop is close and I'd serious consider reraising, but after that I don't think QQ is strong enough to raise. Although there is value in folding out draws and other hands that have equity, you are going to be putting money in bad when your raise is called. That's not to say you'll always be behind, but I think you'll be behind the range of hands that will give action to a raise.
October 21, 2013
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That's right Andrew my bad i didnt think about that…
Gosh i have to stop rapresenting (or thinking of rapresent) bad cards for my opponent's range that can not be in my range given the line that i took during the hand…gotta pay more attention to that !! (Basically is kinda the same mistake i made in the hand vs Minieri we talked about)
Also Thanks a lot for the prompt and high quality responses !!
I too like the hand pre and otf. I agree also with Brokos that his second barrel ott is extremely strong and it's at least a Jack. That said when he checks the river I think his range hasn't changed enough to warrant a thin value bet unless we are absolutely sure that he's double barrelling with ace high. I don't think he is – and I don't think he's going to call a river bet with ace high either. I think we are only getting a call from a jack and over pairs and folding everything else that doesn't beat us. I'm not going to lie though that putting in a small value bet is tempting. I just think it's a little tooooo thin in this spot. I've been told that the thin value betting is what separates the kids from the adults but I am not sure if that applies here.
May 20, 2013
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Foucault said:
ltcolumbo said:
Riar, I know its not your question, but “I think everything up untill the river is standard” has thrown me off. I am surprised there is no effort to drive the blind out or raise on any street.
What would a raise accomplish other than driving the blind out?
I was thinking that the board is wet/draw heavy with 2 clubs and 9-J str8 cards. So when the turn pairs the 6, I think a raise folds out the blind and other draws. If the Blind folds and the villian folds, I am not expecting that I lost river value. If the blind folds and the villian CALLS, I feel like I can put him on some sort of Jx hand. If villian raises, I can most likely put him on better than J.
I do try to keep thinking about keeping villian's range where they include hands you beat, but I also dont expect him to 3-bet bluff the turn. Is that wrong?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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LT,
I think you're right that he won't 3-bet the turn as a bluff. However, whether he calls or 3-bets, I think you're in bad shape. So putting that money in bad when you're behind is the price you pay for trying to raise someone off of a hand that might not even have enough equity to call a bet in the first place. I think you are too concerned with maximizing your chance of winning the pot instead of making the most +EV decision.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Simon,
Riar is considering betting the river in order to get Villain to fold KK/AA.
May 20, 2013
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Foucault said:
I think you are too concerned with maximizing your chance of winning the pot instead of making the most +EV decision.
LOL, I was thinking the opposite about your line (correctly I now see). You are trying to maximize +EV and I felt you were sacrificing some % chance of closing out the hand without conflict. But I do hear what you are saying about the possibility of money going in bad, but with two opponents, I usually want 1 (or both) to go away?
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