sbecks said:

What's up everybody.  First time poster here, would appreciate thoughts on this hand played at recent WSOP-C at Harrahs Atlantic City.  $365 freeze out, 383 runners, 2 day structure.

Hero moved to table about 30 min prior and has played pretty nitty to better understand table dynamic.  Only recently been getting more active in somewhat standard spots – 3B twice over limpers in past 2 orbits, dragging small pots with flop c-bet – have not yet showed down a hand.

Villain in this hand is 40 yo black guy, well dressed.  V has one of the shorter stacks at the table (23 bbs).  Appears to be playing tight in my very limited sample size and has not shown down a hand since I've been at table. 

It is the end of level 12 on the very last hand before dinner break – 600/1200/200a. 9 handed, but half the table already broke for dinner.

Hero is dealt QQ in BB with 58k behind.  Folds around to Villain in HJ with 28k who opens for 4k (lots of people still opening 3x+ pre at this point). Folds to hero who 3bets to 10k.  Villain pauses for 10 seconds and just calls.

 

Flop (22.6k) A39

 

Hero…?

 

Questions:

– What are your thoughts on V range? I was very surprised at the smooth call pre given stacks.  I assigned a very narrow (too narrow?) calling range – pretty much just 1010-QQ.  I expect him to jam KK/AA always, AK the majority of the time and maybe AQs some of the time.  I expect him to fold mid pps and all A2-AQ.

 

– What are your thoughts on the 3B pre, OOP, against this type of opponent?  In game I had planned to fold to a 4B shove, and as such in hindsight I really think I should have either flatted or clicked back to 8k (not sure which is optimal).  And in light of my estimate of villain's tendancies (jams hands that crush me, folds everything else) is 3B pre optimal in any way?

 

– As played, how do you proceed on the flop first to act?

No offense but I don't see how there's any possible way you can find a fold to a 4bet pre.  You have the third best starting hand in poker and your opponent only has 23bb.  Mathmatically even if his range is JJ+ and AK ONLY, I think you would still have the math to call once you 3 bet, and there is no possible way his range his that narrow.  A lot of times I'll see decent aggressive players make big laydowns against perceived nits who haven't played a hand in 10 hrs, only to find that the “nit” was actually using his image to bluff.  Here, you don't have a large enough sample size to make any reasonable deductions based on your opponent's play.  In live you are only dealt roughly 20 hands per hour so even if your opponent has folded every hand in the last half hour, that means his range is the top 10% of starting hands, which includes 99+, AK, AQs, and KQs.  You are ahead of the median of your opponent's range pre.  Once he flats you can narrow his range down significantly.  I disagree that your opponent has a medium pocket pair (99-JJ).  Generally, those are the precise hands that I don't expect an opponent to flat with as they play better preflop than post.  Frankly, when he flats I begin to eliminate those hands from his range.  I could be wrong bc your opponent may play differently than I do but with 23BB I'd be jam/fold with those hands.  I also think that he would jam with AK.  The only hands I can possibly see a call here with from your opponent is a moderate strength ace (A10+)that he didn't want to jam, and was waiting to see the flop with, or KK/AA.  Calling with KK or AA is a pretty risky maneuver but I can see a player getting trappy with that sort of hand, not wanting to chase you off pre.  Once the Ace hits, I don't really like the way that our hand stands up to his range.  It is literally the worst possible card for our hand as an opponent is much more likely to have an Ace in his hand than any other card.  I don't really see what you beat here.  I agree that there is no reason to bet.  You are either way ahead of your opponent's lower pocket pair or you are way behind a pair of Kings or better.  Betting doesn't accomplish anything as it gets better hands to go all in, and worse hands just fold.  The only possible better hand that you could get your opponent to fold is KK but there's roughly 0% that he will fold given that he is committed.  The problem is that if you check your hand is faceup and it may inspire your opponent to turn his hand into a bluff.  This really is a gross spot.  I'd have to do some soul reading if it was livee or really lean on a HUD if it was online. 

*PS to avoid this spot I would have simply 3 bet my opponent all-in pre.  For me, there is no chance I fold to my opponent's 4bet all-in pre, so I may as well go ahead and go all-in myself.  That avoids me getting bluffed out in future streets.